Let's Hear It for Probability Distributions!

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September 11, 2008

Let's Hear It for Probability Distributions!

My younger son, Adam Smith Palmer, lives south of Houston, Texas. Recently, I have been a bit more than curious about Hurricane Ike and what the forecasts say. The typical forecast says, "We expect Hurricane Ike to be a category 3 hurricane with winds approaching 125 mph when it reaches the Texas coast." That doesn't tell me as much as I would like to know. For example, what are the odds it might be stronger or weaker?

Well, hallelujah, the National Hurricane Center (US) provides a probability distribution of its forecasts. As an example, this is the table that was posted yesterday afternoon:

Wouldn't it be wonderful if Environment Canada made similar tables available in their snowfall predictions in the winter?

Posted by EclectEcon on September 11, 2008 at 12:16 PM in Science | Permalink

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