EclectEcon

Size Matters: Addendum

In my previous post, I opined that "Size is important".

It is. I like having a bigger screen for my smartphone than is offered by Apple. The Note2 by Samsung is as large as I might want, though. It is not too big for most of my shirt pockets, but it is perhaps a bit too big to hold for long periods for reading or for taking self-portraits using the screen-side camera. 

Given these considerations, I would probably NOT be interested in this larger Samsung "Mega 6.3" [h/t MA]. I would love the larger screen, but that size might be too big for my shirt pockets (MA says I should buy shirts with bigger pockets then; in fact if I wore only cargo pants or sportcoats, a phone that big might not be a problem.). 

At the same time, keeping in mind the sizes of some of the early cellphones that many of us used back in the late 1980s and early 1990s, I see nothing wrong with using a phone that is larger. My Note2 is considerably smaller than my early Sony phone or any of the early Motorola phones. A current phone is large? That means the screen is more readable and easier to use.

The Future for Apple

Jack sent me this article from Forbes, dissing Apple pretty seriously. Its title is,

7 Reasons Apple is More Doomed Than You Think

I have little knowledge in this area, so take the rest of this in that vein. As you know, I'm upset with Apple because they didn't have the good sense to come out with a smartphone the size of the Galaxy S3 (or the rumoured slightly larger S4). And I have seen nothing in the rumour mill indicating that they will move in that direction soon.

They will... eventually. But by then, Apple will be playing catch-up to Samsung and HTC. I still haven't adjusted to my Samsung Note2 and Android, but size is important!

So knowing that's my only take on Apple (other than the fact that I recently bought a MacBook Pro instead of and Window-based machine), you may not want to pay too much attention to these forecasts. 

I looked at the price of Apple stock earlier today. It was about $403US, up $5 for the day, but down about 28% from its peak. My guess (forecast or prediction is really too strong, despite my having used "forecasts" in the previous paragraph) is that in two years Apple stock will sell for $210 and in five years it will sell for $125. 

If I had any confidence in these guesses, I would short the socks off Apple. But given my lack of confidence in these guesses, and given my generally strong risk aversion, I'll settle for just making the guesses public.

Turn Off Your Cellphone?

I hate listening to other people's phone conversations. Too many people seem to think it is okay to have cellphone conversations anytime, anywhere; and they generally seem to think they need to speak more loudly into a cellphone than in person. Ugh.

But what's wrong with texting and checking your email on a flight? Not much unless it distracts you in case of emergencies. Here's an insider's report:

Turning off our electronic devices: How necessary is it, really?
Flight attendants everywhere will hate me for this, but ... having your electronic device on below 10,000 feet is not an immediate danger to the flight. How do I know? Pilots are the worst offenders of this rule. Not on purpose, of course, but when we're flying all day, sometimes we forget to turn our phones off. I've received a phone call everywhere from the takeoff roll to 18,000 feet over the Rockies and the airplane has never had an adverse reaction.

That said, it's still important for you to listen to the flight attendants and follow their instructions to turn off your electrical devices. It is their job to enforce the rules, no matter how dumb they are. If you want to give someone an attitude or an earful, please direct your worst to the hypocritical politicians who do not comply with the rule while on their private jets.

I've heard phones go off or text signals as planes are landing. As with the pilot who wrote that statement above, it's never been a problem. 

More Evidence of How Unnecessary AntiTrust Cases Often Are: Microsoft

Remember those massive antitrust cases against Microsoft? Think of all the scarce resources devoted to prosecuting Microsoft and used by Microsoft to defend itself. I opposed those cases for two reasons:

1. Microsoft dominated only when their products were better than others. I switched to Word because WordPerfect for Windows was horrible. I switched to Internet Explorer (and then FireFox, Chrome, and Safari) as they got better than Netscape and Mosaic (?).
2. Competition is very powerful. Apple is making huge inroads into the PC market. Google is dominating Microsoft in many areas. And operating systems for tablets and smartphones are leaving Microsoft in an unenviable position of trying to catch up.

Also, see Winners, Losers, and Microsoft by Stan Liebowitz.

According to Motley Fool (though not in these words), these two points are important for understanding the future for Microsoft, its strengths and its weaknesses.

The rise of tablets and smartphones has shaken up the once dominant “Wintel” PC paradigm. In an attempt to re-establish its supremacy, Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) designed Windows 8 to be a hybrid operating system, useful on a variety of platforms.

But Windows 8 adoption has been poor -- consumers seem baffled by the changes. Meanwhile, Windows tablets are selling poorly, and Windows Phone remains in fourth place. Can Microsoft turn things around, or should the company cut and run?

Windows 8 has failed

Microsoft released Windows 8 last October. The new version of Windows was the biggest redesign of the operating system since Windows 95. Unfortunately, consumers seem baffled by the changes, and Microsoft’s hardware partners have been public in their disappointment.

There are two ways to keep industries competitive in the long run without resort to antitrust laws that are often ineffective (and frequently downright anti-competitive themselves!):

1. Promote free trade. Don't let fat-cat monopolists use trade barriers to enhance their monopoly power.
2. Promote easy entry into industries. Don't let the fat cat incumbents bribe politicians into making rules/laws that inhibit competition from new entrants.

And always remember the sad truth that most antitrust policy can be summarized this way:

1. You must compete.
2. You must not win.

Apple, Why Didn't You Listen to Me (and many others!)?

The price of Apple's stock is falling. They're losing market share to Samsung. We all know why: screen size. As I argued several years ago, the iPhone was great for everything, but I'd prefer something a bit bigger so that reading would be easier (e.g. see this). I figured I wouldn't even be interested in an iPad if I had a bigger screen on an iPhone. 

So when the iPhone 5 came out just a bit longer but no wider than the iPhone 4, I gave up waiting and switched to a Samsung Note2. I am not entirely thrilled with the Note2, as I've said before: Android is difficult for me to adjust to, and the Note2 has buttons in the wrong places. I like that it takes micro SD cards and has a replaceable battery, and I especially like the big screen. And if Apple comes out with an iPhone 6 the size of even a Samsung Galaxy S3, I'll probably switch back. But preliminary rumours suggest they are moving in a different direction. 

Meanwhile people are abandoning Apple in droves. From the link [ht MA]

"We think Apple is losing the screen-size wars," Mr Misek said, noting that demand was moving away from the iPhone's 3.5-inch and 4-inch screens to screens of 5 inches offered by rivals such as Samsung Electronics.

Makes sense to me.

Addendum: I meant to add that as I had expected, now that I have my Note2, I do indeed rarely use my iPad.

 

Related articles

My Adjustment from iPhones to Samsung's Note2 -- not so smooth

iPhone 5S and iPhone 6: Release date, pricing and specs rumors

Bigger iPhone Screens Coming? Not Yet

Lithium-Ion Batteries: Another Reason to Keep My Cellphone in a Case?

I had no idea that lithium-ion batteries could explode or cause a fire. I've loved using them in my cellphones and my power tools, especially, since they seem so much less damaging to the environment than NiCads. But I didn't know about this:

Small, potent lithium-ion power packs have transformed the world of radio-controlled model aircraft, much as they have allowed smartphones to get thinner, power tools to work longer and electric cars to go farther. But a pair of serious incidents this month involving rechargeable batteries in Boeing 787 Dreamliners have highlighted what model-airplane hobbyists long have known — lithium-ion technology comes with inherent dangers.

... 

When a cellphone battery overheats — a rare event — it can eject itself with a loud “pop,” leaving singe marks behind. Lithium-ion battery packs can have prolonged fires as each cell, typically the size of a man’s finger, gradually ignites.

“It could be a smoke bomb. It could be a flamethrower,” said Gerard Back, a senior engineer with Hughes Associates, a fire-protection company in Baltimore that investigated the Volt incident. “I’ve seen them look like every type of firework you can imagine.”

I keep my cellphone in a case anyway.... a sticky case in my shirt pocket to keep it from falling out when I lean over to flush the toilet, to be blunt. Now it sounds to me as if keeping my cellphone in a case might also be some added protection in the very low probability event that my lithium-ion battery overheats or bursts into flame.

My Adjustment from iPhones to Samsung's Note2 -- not so smooth

As regular readers of EclectEcon know, I was deeply disappointed with Apple's iPhone5 and its mini-iPad. I was hoping Apple would come out with something the size of the Samsung Note2, but I'd have been content with an iPhone the size of the Samsung Galaxy S3. (see this, for example). I certainly wanted something larger than the iPhone5 and smaller than the minipad. 

So, even though I knew there would be serious transition problems, I bit the bullet and bought a Note2.

The Note2 is LARGE. I really like reading on it, so much so that I rarely use my iPad for anything anymore, and I've de-activated my iPhone4. The Note2 gets a bit heavy or awkward when I hold it for a looonnnngg time, and for most people the S3 might be a better choice, but I like the size. The clarity of the screen and the size of the phone make it wonderful for me and probably are enough to swamp all the problems I am having to deal with:

• My problems are almost exclusively due to my difficulties of adjusting from nearly 4 years of using iPhones to using Android. I know that lots of people prefer Android to iOS, and maybe it's as good as or better than iOS, but the transition has not been easy for me.
• Apps. The apps for the iPhone are generally better than those for Android (for example, consider The Weather Network apps). As one friend pointed out, "Android apps are fewer and lower quality." Also, finding the apps I want on the Google play store hasn't been very easy.
• Button placement. I keep hitting the blessed volume and screen-off buttons on the sides of the phone. I never had this problem with my iPhones. Maybe I'm having this problem with the Note2 because it's bigger, but I think the problem would be less if the screen-off button were on top.
• Where's the friggn "silent" switch? I can put the Note2 on "no ring" by pushing the volume down to zero, but then when I turn it up again, there is an annoying sound I can't seem to get rid of. 
• It's weird.... where are my backups? Where is everything? I'm used to having an iPhone back up to my computer. Maybe that's unnecessary but it is definitely disconcerting.
• texting: I haven't figured out how to make text messages show up on the opening screen without having to open the whole Android shebang. That was a nice feature of iOS. I don't like having to turn my phone on and then having to open the texting app just to read a friggn text. 
• iMessage and FaceTime. Those "free" features of Apple were time and money savers. I know we can use Skype video instead of FaceTime, and iMessage isn't all that valuable....but it's a big saver when you're texting people in another country.
• and how do I get all the stuff I bought via iTunes onto my Note2??

But in addition to the size, which trumps everything above, here are some other pluses for the Note2:

• The SD card. I love being able to store a whole bunch of stuff on a $50 64gb micro SD card. That was always a complaint I had about the Apple products.
• Kindle and Kobo, et al. I can buy e-books directly from them. I don't need to exit the app, go to the store to buy the e-book, then go back to the app. I really do miss Stanza, though, and wish it were available in Android.
• Replaceable battery. I'm ordering a second battery so I'll have plenty of backup power whenever I'm away from a charger for a long time.

Several times early on I was so frustrated that I almost sent it back. I'm old, and I hate having to relearn stuff that works reasonably well for me, so learning Android and unlearning iOS has not been pleasant for me or for anyone around me. Fortunately, our 13-year-old granddaughter is familiar with Android and was able to help me through a few things. 

One thing that might be a plus but which often confuses me now is the different type of auto-completion in Android. In iOS, auto completion guesses at a word (and even, embarrassingly at times, corrects it not always in ways I'd like). In Android, there's is no auto-correction, and the auto-completion always presents three good guesses about what word I'm trying to type. I think I'll get to like this feature.

[I don't know when Amazon.ca changed but as you can see from the links below, they now offer a much broader range of products than they used to, and the Canadian prices are often comparable to the Amazon.com prices and sometimes even lower. Yea!]

,

Related articles

Why I Might Drop the iPhone 5 for the Galaxy Note II, and you should too.

Linked-In? Skool Daze? Whatever...

I keep receiving requests from people to connect with them via Linked In or Schooldays or whatever it is. I have no idea why I should or what the value of doing so might be... to them or to me. If I might have been a classmate, okay, I'll connect via Schooldays even if I don't have the foggiest idea of who you might be. But if I get a Linked-in request from someone I don't know, I just ignore it. Either way, I must say, I don't see the point of these versions of social media.

But maybe I'm wrong. Long-time readers of EclectEcon may remember that Scoop tried to encourage me to join Facebook, and I wouldn't do it until he created a Facebook group encouraging me to join and managed to find 50 people to join that group. After several months he, Rondi, and Erin, succeeded and I joined.

At the time I wrote,

Now that I have joined Facebook, I have a sense of alone-ness. Nobody from my high school or undergraduate graduating classes is a member of Facebook. Nobody from my present hometown is a member of Facebook. That says a lot about both my age and about the demographic market for Facebook.

That was over five years ago. Since then things have changed considerably. Many, many more people are FB members.  I have become increasingly active on Facebook. I have many friends there from all over creation based on my having taught and lived in so many places and having been involved in many different aspects of the arts, economics, and blogging. Through Facebook I keep in touch with former students with whom I'd almost surely have lost touch without FB. And I've renewed friendships with grade school and high school friends, as well as a couple of relatives. I love it.

My granddaughter and I had a contest last summer to see who was more addicted to Facebook. She won, but barely. Also, it is clear that posting links and comments on Facebook has replaced some of my blogging.

So maybe there is something to these other groups like Linked-in and SkoolDaze. But if so, what is it??

And does anyone really use Google+?

Calm and Peace

I am definitely saving this link. Very relaxing! Just close your eyes and do nothing for two minutes.

Is Apple Really Listening to Me?

Recently I posted that even though I have both an iPhone and an iPad2, I would really like a slightly bigger iPhone and/or a tablet small enough to fit in my coat or cargo pants pockets.

There is a chance my wishes (and undoubtedly those of others) are being answered by Apple. Sneak peaks indicate the iPhone5 will be larger than the iPhone4, and there are rumours that Apple is considering a smaller version of its iPad.

iPhone5

Jack sent me this article about the possible features of the iPhone5. I was struck by the potential for increased speed and other features, but what really caught my eye was this photo:

If this picture can be posted (hope so!), notice how much bigger the screen will be on the 5 vs. the 4! It looks as if the planned size of the iPhone5 is exactly what I was asking for. Given some of the promotions of the Galaxy Android, I'll be surprised if the iPhone5 is not this big, e.g. about the size I mentioned in my previous post on this topic. 

iPad

I was delighted with the prospects of a larger iPhone. But then I read that there is also a chance that Apple might choose to bring out a smaller iPad to compete with all the 7" tablets that are quite understandably eating into the iPad market share. From Slate,

Apple is testing a version of the iPad with a smaller screen, say officials at some of the company's Asian suppliers. 

According to the Wall Street Journal, Apple has shown screen designs for an 8-inch iPad (compared with the 9.7-inch iPad 2) to suppliers, and is working with companies that include Taiwan's AU Optronics and LG Display of South Korea on producing test versions of the new product, which may or may not actually go into production. ...

Samsung and Amazon are doing well in sales of smaller-size tablet offerings, including Amazon's 7-inch Kindle Fire and Samsung's Galaxy Tab, which comes in three sizes, including a 7-inch.

Clearly I am not the only consumer who likes the possibility of using a slightly larger iPhone and/or a slightly smaller iPad. Long live consumer sovereignty!

Tablets. Still Not Right for Me.

After I had my iPhone for a few months, I wondered if I might prefer something just a bit bigger..... not so big that it wouldn't still fit in my shirt pocket, but maybe even a half inch bigger in width and length would be nice. 

I read a lot of novels on my iPhone. A slightly bigger screen would be nice. I also check email and Facebook on my iPhone (especially when I wake up in the middle of the night). Typing on the small screen is pretty hard, which helps explain why some of my email correspondence is so brief or non-existent. 

And so I wondered about whether I might like a tablet. In the end, though, I'm not at all enthused with tablets, even though I have two of them. Details:

About 7 months ago (early summer, 2011) Ms. Eclectic bought us both iPad2s. She absolutely loves hers. I'm okay with mine. I love the "Wow!" factor. And it is sometimes easier to read novels on it than on my iPhone -- but not always. Unfortunately, the iPad2 is just too big and bulky for me to carry around all the time, whereas my iPhone is in a pocket whereever I go. If I'm waiting somewhere, I can whip out my iPhone and read. That's not so easy with my iPad. So size and convenient portability are issues for me.

But so is extendability/expandability. I would love to have a tablet that has easy access to my files via an SD or micro SD card, something not available on an iPad or iPhone.

Also, initially we tried to use the iPad2s as substitutes for our laptops by trying various cases that had keyboards. None of them was satisfactory -- several had keys in the wrong place, and others had poor typing response. After trying quite a few, we just gave up on this idea. An iPad is not a substitute for a full-featured laptop. Typing on an iPad is easier than typing on an iPhone, but nowhere near as easy as typing on a laptop. So I try to avoid doing much email work or Facebook typing on even the iPad; and I never try to write a blog post on my iPad (much less my iPhone!).

Other than these three drawbacks, I quite like both my iPhone4 and my iPad2. But these drawbacks are enough to keep me looking.

At times I have thought I might really like a 7" tablet. It would fit in my jacket pockets, and it would fit in the extra pockets of most cargo pants/shorts. I'd be especially tempted if it had a slot to take an SD card.

Over the holidays, I gave some consideration to getting a Kindle Fire, but I am not at all keen on storing my files in Amazon's cloud: I don't always have wifi access, and I have some files that I consider private.

A few weeks later, when RIM's Playbook went on sale, I nearly bought one. Then I learned that there was no Kindle app for the Playbook. Huh? Since reading is one of the things I like to do with my toys, the Playbook is out for now.

Shortly after Christmas, my son and I each got 7" tablets by PanDigital. These tablets are at best quasi-Android, difficult to load apps on (I never figured it out), and extremely slow. I loaded quite a few books in epub format onto an SD card and used that card in the tablet (a nice potential feature), but quickly discovered the reader was bogged down with so many books there. The PanDigital is a convenient, almost okay tablet that has slow access to the internet and FaceBook, but it's just too slow and incompatible (or at best inconveniently quasi-compatible) with other programmes to suit me. Also, it might be possible to load a Kindle app on the PanDigital, but I never figured out how. Thank goodness they were quite inexpensive.

Next, I might look at the Samsung Galaxy 7. It looks to be a full-fledged, fast Android tablet with the Kindle app pre-loaded, and it accepts a micro SD card (only up to 32gb, however). Judging from the specs and the reviews, it should be pretty much what I'm looking for. But given that I already have two tablets (one and a half, really), I think I'll hold off for now. Also, I'm not terribly eagre to try to work out synchronizing my iPhone with an Android tablet, and I'm not ready to move completely to Android with everything either.

I understand that Apple is bringing out an iPad3 soon. I'm sure it will be very nice. But I also fully expect it will not have a 7-inch version, nor will it have a card slot for loading extra music, videos, and books.

So I'll wait and keep looking. I think what I might like is something like a Macbook Air or a Toshiba Portege with a touch screen (maybe in a swivel lid?) for a laptop. However, I'm still not sure I want that AND a tablet to carry around. If you have any suggestions, I would appreciate them.

iPad2: a Great "Wow" Factor, but not really all that great for me

Through a series of odd  events, both Ms. Eclectic and I have ended up owning iPad2s. It may be just my own idiosyncratic interests and preferences, but I remain underwhelmed. Ms. Eclectic is less underwhelmed than I am, but she, too, is not overly enthusiastic about her iPad.

The iPad has some nice things:

• The bigger screen than an iPhone is nice for reading things. Books and PDFs are generally easier to read (but see below). 
• Gmail and Facebook are easier to use on an iPad than on an iPhone. I use them via Safari, which I prefer using as opposed to the Gmail and Facebook apps for the iPad.
• Typing on an iPad is much easier than on an iPhone. At the same time, though, I have experimented with using bluetooth keyboards designed for use with an iPad2, but many of them have keys in the wrong place, which makes using them very frustrating. If you think you might want an external bluetooth keyboard, make sure you check them out for quite a few different uses first.
• The fingertip expansion or contraction and rotation are just plain fun. They really add to the "wow" factor of an iPad2.
• Instant on makes the iPad a great coffee-table tool. Any time you're watching tv or talking or whatever, if a question arises, you just pick up the iPad and google it. As Ms. Eclectic says, "it's much easier to look [stuff] up on the iPad than it is on a computer." 
• It is light and convenient. Once you put it into a case of some sort, the iPad really isn't a whole lot lighter than a Mac Air or a Toshiba Portege. Nevertheless, it seems light and convenient, even when compared with the lighter notebooks. Also it runs much cooler than my Toshiba Portege.
• The battery life is great! Even when reading with a bright screen, it looks to me as if the iPad battery will last well over six-seven hours; some people report battery lives of up to ten hours.

So why is it "not really all that great for me"? As I've said, it might be me, but....

• The iPad isn't a computer and it isn't an iPhone. That means that now I have one more thing to carry around if I want to have it with me.
• It is too big to fit into any pocket easily. I had intended to consider the Samsung, HP, and even Blackberry tablets before getting an iPad2 because they are smaller would fit into a sportcoat or blazer pocket. But after reading the reviews of Blackberry's Playbook, I knew I wouldn't consider that option. I never had a chance to consider the Samsung or HP tablets. [addendum: my daughter visited on the weekend with her Samsung Galaxy tablet. It is exactly the right size for me in that it fits easily into a jacket pocket or into the side pocket of cargo pants. If I were making the decision now, I'd certainly give the Samsung tablet very serious consideration.]
• The lack of a USB port, the lack of an SD slot for loading photos and files, and the inability to load or unload files easily any other way is a royal pain. This is also a problem with the iPhone, but then I don't think of the iPhone as a potential substitute for my laptop.
• If I want to use a computer, a laptop is much easier to use than an iPad.
• If I want to use a cell phone, an iPhone is much easier to use than an iPad.
• Reading books is often much easier on an iPhone because the iPhone is always with me and is much easier to carry around. I always have my books and podcasts and blog downloads with me on my iPhone, but that isn't the case with the iPad because I simply do not carry it with me wherever I go. Ms. Eclectic and I don't share this view. She has always enjoyed reading novels on her iPhone, but she absolutely loves the iPad for reading novels.

As I've said, the iPad2 has a nice "Wow" factor, but I'm less impressed with it as a tool than many others are. I know many people in business love iPads or other tablets (I suspect that's because when the iPad is flat on a conference table, they can check e-mail or surf the web without the screen being viewable by (m)any others; this suspicion received support when a university admin sent me e-mail while I knew the person was in a seminar).

My assessment, after using one for a few weeks, is fairly consistent with my expectations. I'm underwhelmed.

But having said that, I'm not giving it away. I'm sure part of the explanation is "the endowment effect." But I think part of the explanation also is that it is fun and convenient to use in some places or situations.

More on Decision Rules for Valuing things

Prompted by the comments here and on Facebook to my previous posting about valuing things, I thought I would try to clarify a few things:

• I realize that my guesses about what things my children might value are imperfect. Some of the things I'm saving or passing on to them are things I think they ought to value, things I hope they will value eventually, even if they might not value them now. Family heirlooms, booklets of memories, etc. fall into this category. 
• My daughter made the mistake of telling us they might have a yard sale with the things they don't want. That information could have made us more reluctant to pass things on to her, but in fact it had the opposite effect: if we thought an object might be of value to someone in a yard sale, off it went to my daughter.
• We haven't held a yard sale ourselves, nor have I listed anything other than our cat (FREE and LOVABLE! Please let me know if you want to adopt her!!) on Kijiji. In response to Ironman's question, I think the transaction costs of those types of disposal are just too high for us, especially since all the disposal, packing, moving, etc. must take place fairly quickly. 
• We began by giving most of our yard equipment and supplies to some friends.
• Things we don't want, and that we think our children won't want (and won't likely want to try to sell themselves) are going to various charity shops. Some will take only clothing; others take household items as well. Also we've had pretty good luck disposing of large items by just leaving them on the curb (e.g. big sheets of foam insulation, a not-perfect coat tree, a couple of desk chairs with taped-up arms). 
• Alex's problem, mentioned in his comment, is one that has plagued me over the years: "Whaddya mean nobody wants this computer? I paid over $2K for it!" etc. I think the only floppies we've saved are for the textbook I did many years ago. But we also shredded tonnes of them (let's hear it for tough shredders!). Also, we just put two keyboards, two portable tape recorders, etc. in the garbage. And even though I can't imagine anyone will want it, I put my super-duper expensive Panasonic portable CD player into a charity bag. 
• I'm not at all keen on Rick's partner's solution. That solution implies a value of zero or less for all the items in both piles. Even with fairly high shadow prices for storage in the place we're moving to, there are some things I value enough that I'd like to keep them. Examples here include my old scrapbooks and photo albums, conductors' scores, old family letters, etc. Many of these I'll eventually photograph so we can get rid of the originals, but I haven't been able to get to that yet.

Modern-Day Rip van Winkle: What have been the most dramatic changes during the past twenty years?

Prompted by a remark in an e-mail message from MA, I began to wonder what would amaze me and puzzle me the most if I had gone to sleep 20 years ago. Here are some of the changes over the past twenty years that seem to me to have been the most dramatic. Aside from the first two, most of the rest seem to be the result of major changes in electronic and communication technologies.

• My family: all three children married (sort of, in one case) and five grandchildren. 
• Stock market indices and commodities prices. Oughta sight!
• Cell phones? nah, Ms. Eclectic and I both had one back then. But what cell phones, and especially smart phones, will do is pretty amazing.
• The explosion of the internet. Back in 1991, I was reading and contributing to tonnes of newsgroups (fun, and I made friends along the way with whom I am still in contact). But I hadn't even heard of "the web" back then. 
• in that same vein, Google and Wikipaedia: want to know something? It is so much easier to find an answer these days. 
• Real incomes. What I mean here is that there seem to be so many things that are so much cheaper these days than they were 20 years ago. I know, I know: food and energy and commodities prices have jumped a lot lately, but overall, prices for so many things seem not to have risen much, if at all, but incomes have.
• The size of gubmnt, especially in the US. 
• How much cleaner the environment seems, especially regarding industrial pollution. 
• CDs and DVDs? They were just barely breaking into the consumer markets, and now they're nearly passé. 
• Ceramic knives. I'm sure they were around before, but I'd never heard of them.
• any others? 

Facebook, Networking, and the World

An amazing map, showing Facebook friend links and patterns of the links around the world [h/t BS]

From this site, 

It looks like a view of the world taken from space, with major cities glowing with electric lights.

But this remarkable picture is actually a visualisation of millions of Facebook friendships between cities around the world

E-mail Overload?

After having been away from my laptop for several days, I just downloaded the e-mail that had accumulated. To see what was going on with the 177 messages I had received, I listed them by category:

• E-mail Lists: I received 69 messages from various e-mail lists including newspapers, blogs, and tonnes of administrivia from various universities.
• The Quartet: There are four of us (Jack, BenS, JB and me) who exchange links, thoughts, etc. frequently. There were 57 messages in this category.
• Theatre: There were five messages pertaining to mystery dinner theatre work.
• Spam and Phishing: 22 messages, 15 of which had been diverted to my junk file. Most of the other seven were from people asking me to flog things on this blog.
• Facebook: seven messages from various FB friends.
• Other: 17 messages from colleagues, friends, and family.

The time period was roughly from mid-afternoon January 1st to mid-afternoon January 4th. 

It is probably time to unsubscribe from some of the e-mail lists. Too bad I can't unsubscribe from some of the university administrivia e-mail lists!

iPad: I Must Be Marching to the Beat of a Different Pianist

I admit that when iPads first came out, I couldn't understand the excitement. I have an iPhone, and I have a small, light laptop; so why would I want something else that does not really combine the two in any convenient fashion?

But then various friends and acquaintances began talking about them and buying them. They raved about how light iPads are and about how good the screens are, not to mention all the great applications (most of which are available for smartphones, too). 

So I stopped in at an Apple store last spring and spent some time playing with one. After awhile, I understood the "wow" factor in some ways, but I came away completely under-whelmed. 

Not that the iPad features aren't generally wonderful. It's just that I don't want yet another electronic device that does comparatively little that I cannot already do with my iPhone and laptop. And my laptop has a real keyboard; people with iPads do not like doing much typing on a touch screen.

• The iPad isn't that much lighter than the light laptops, which are much more functional, with USB ports, hardwire jacks, real keyboards, etc.
• The size of the iPad makes things much easier to read on it, but I find reading on my iPhone more convenient because I always have it with me.

It looks to me as if the only thing going for an iPad is the larger touch screen. If that is really so great, I cannot understand why PC makers haven't brought out a host of small, light tablet-type PCs (the kind with a swivel screen). With a laptop-tablet, I would have the benefits of both a PC and an iPad, and I wouldn't have to worry about having one more thing to carry around or synchronize files with. 

But most of the competing new products seem determined to compete with iPad directly, offering less computing convenience than a laptop but bulkier size than a smartphone. [h/t MA, who has concerns about the working conditions in iPad plants]

Meanwhile, despite the outstanding sales of iPads since their introduction, I am content to be using just an iPhone and a laptop. But maybe that's just because, to use a phrase from my son, I march to the beat of a different pianist.

Music Business Conference: reflections

I really enjoyed the four papers presented at today's conference, albeit for varied reasons. They told me things I didn't know (Tschmuck's summary, Liebowitz's demolition of the O-G/S study, O-G's vapid discussion of whether we really need copyright [he didn't really say anything that hadn't been said by Arnold Plant, nearly a century ago], and Gardner's presentation of data about file-sharing). The panel discussion that concluded the conference was weak, though (aside from Richard Mollet of BPI who was clearly more knowledgeable than some of the others). 

In the concluding panel, as I mentioned in the previous posting, the panelists mulled over the possibility of creating copyright collectives to deal with file-sharing. That's not what they said, but that's what they were doing. And Liebowitz has written definitively on the topic. He participated some from the floor, but his main point that gubmnts don't set prices right seemed beyond them for some inexplicable reason. Further, it was just plain shocking to me to learn how many people on both sides of negotiations would rather have the gubmnt set the prices (presumably to reduce their own companies' negotiating costs?). 

Little wonder the western world is on the slippery slope toward increased elitist interventionism.

Now, off to a winery (heuriger) for a post-conference get-together. I hope to be tipsy or worse before the night is over.

Live-Blogging the Music Business Conference: part IV (Big Champagne)

Big Champagne provides data about the music business. Eric Garland, founder, made the last presentation.

People are buying more but spending less. Price per unit is declining. YouTube is now the number one place that people listen to music? Wow!

Only 2% of albums sold 5K copies or more in the UK. The number of new platinum albums has declined over the past four years from 35 to just 12. Also, most digital sales are songs, not albums. [makes sense to me]. 

Holy Cow! My Space and YouTube are REALLY big compared with digital sales; and they are dwarfed by P2P.

 Another problem is that pirates are very efficient at providing music on P2P before it is released. And the search engines help everyone find the sites quickly.

Great evidence that "popular is popular", i.e. the best selling albums are also the ones most downloaded. We cannot use this fact as evidence that file-sharing has no impact on sales.

Live-Blogging the Music Business Conference: part III (Oberholzer-Gee)

Felix Oberholzer-Gee kicks off the afternoon session. He begins with a graph showing the phenomenal growth in P2P that began about the same time album sales declined (cf Liebowitz's first slide).

In contrast to Liebowitz, he asserts that concert revenues are important.

Again, as this morning, O-G points out that Liebowitz's results imply that more than all of the decline in album sales is due to downloading [sounds devastating, but of course it isn't because the sampling effect leads to a positive effect. The net effect is negative]

Summarizes a 2009 study by Hong showing that once control groups are corrected for, then Napster accounted for 20% of the decline in album sales. Still important, but nothing like 250%. 

O-G seems to be backtracking.... he presents a table showing wide confidence intervals for his estimates. Most researchers don't talk about the lower bounds of confidence intervals, and this is refreshing. But it is a cya strategy, too.

Discusses complements even more.... "If you go home tonight and have a good internet connections, thank file-sharers; they are the reason we needed faster internet." Funny. That certainly captures the problems and effects I've experienced when teaching at Herstmonceux.

He shows increased revenues to artists in Sweden over the years 2000-8. What explains that?

O-G presents the data that include iPod sales: He says he does so to show the effect of complementarity. "For everyone else, content is free." and that drives the demand for iPods. 

Sounds to me as if he's saying that indeed file-sharing has had a big impact on music sales.

Says people will produce without intellectual property rights. Examples are garage bands, wikipedia, open-source software. 

Now Liebowitz responds:

  In Sweden the artists were worse off in total if an inflation correction is applied to that result.

  O-G sidesteps and doesn't address that. Typical Liebowitz deals with the data and facts while O-G slides. But very well.

  O-G also caved on data about performing rights issues. 

  Both O-G and Liebowitz have been much more polite this afternoon. But I expect there are two reasons for this: First, Liebowitz cooled off. Second, O-G seems to have completely caved in on everything his conclusion: "therefore we need to get rid of copyright." Huh??

My summary: O-G admits Liebowitz is right, but waves his hand to explain why copyright should be abandoned. Very disappointing and intellectually vacuous.

Live-Blogging the Music Business Conference: part II (Liebowitz)

During the question session after his own presentation, Tschmuck declined to conclude what the effect of file-sharing has been on music sales. Not surprisingly, he called for more research.

-------------------------

Trying to summarize Tschmuck's paper as he presented it didn't work very well. I may try to summarize Liebowitz when he is finished.

Liebowitz began by showing a massive decline in record/album sales since 1999. [I expect Steve Levitt could use instrumental variables to show it's the result of abortion law changes.]

He next listed reasons put forward for this decline and already started belittling the work of O-G/S. 

One VERY telling point was that most O-G/S results cannot be replicated using the same data and the same techniques.

But Liebowitz's main point is that the O-G/S technique of using German school vacation days as an instrument to avoid the simultaneity bias is incorrect and/or meaningless. He further points out that Big Champagne's data contradict those of O-G/S.

Liebowitz couldn't possibly get through all his slides in the time alloted. His conclusion took O-G/S to task for misrepresenting previous studies. It was quite amusing as he presented assertions by O-G/S and showed what the papers actually said. It looks as if O-G/S did some pretty scandalous things.

Wow!

Addendum: O-G is in the audience and was asked to respond. He pretty much avoided all of Liebowitz's critiques. 

But sparks really flew when O-G tried to go off on tangents to cover other materials. Understandably, Liebowitz was upset because it took a bunch of time (and, O-G had notably refused to be on the panel with him). 

I wonder how much time Liebowitz will have to comment on O-G's paper this afternoon....  

Live-Blogging the Music Business Conference: part I

Tschmuck's paper is what he calls a typology: classifying studies by type It is very thorough and my brief summary below doesn't do it justice. He starts by summarizing Liebowitz's theoretical work. The summary seemed adequate.

Next he addresses Bayaan's work, employing game theory concluding that legal methods to fight file-sharing makes people worse off. 

Curien/Moreau are next urging that piracy is better for consumers to offset monopoly power and that artists make money from tours.

Peitz et al: talk about sampling benefits of file sharing. [Liebowitz has his work cut out for him.]

Tschmuck argues that the theoretical models of oligopoly and monopolistic competition need to be improved.

-----------

Next he addressed survey-based studies, beginning again with Liebowitz's work showing that file-sharing led to a decline in music sales.

Boorstein used survey data, too, and criticized Liebowitz's work, but Liebowitz extended the data and Boorstein's results were reversed!

Zentner: file-sharing reduces the probability of sales by as much as 30%. used tonnes of European data. Concludes a likely reduction in sales was actually 7.8%

Chi: says she found a positive, not negative effect, but it was questionable [Tschmuck's tone revealed his skepticism].

Andersen/Frenz found a positive effect, too. 

A Dutch study found that P2P file sharing eroded the profitability of album sales but boosted the profitability of concerts. [seems obvious to me. Note: This is at best a 2nd best result.]

Tschmuck's comments on this section seem reasonable for the most part.

-----------

Survey data of users

Bounie et al: explorers who sample vs. pirates who don't buy. Nothing clear.

Rob and Waldfogel: downloaders buy less but that increases consumer welfare.

Lee: a price study of price elasticities of demand

Leung: found negative impact on music downloads when punishment for illegal file-sharing is more severe.

Huygen et al: again found that file-sharing reduces record sales but said it is more than offset by concerts and merchandise sales. [if so, then record companies and artists should not be fighting file-sharing; the fact that they are makes me skeptical of these approaches]

Oops I missed a couple here.

Hong: says Napster might have led to a 20% drop in sales to young people (a huge segment of the market).

similar results from Peitz et al. 

Empirical studies:

Tanaka found no effect on CD sales in Japan. Used instrumental variables [ugh]. 

Bhattacharjee: concluded file-sharing had no impact on chart survival. [so?]

Blackburn: well-known artists suffer from file-sharing. Less well-known don't. 

O-G/Strumpf: no effect of file-sharing on sales. Used instrumental variables very questionably.

Overall, a reasonable summary with a great list of references. 

Live-Blogging the Vienna Music Business Research Days

I interrupt my travels today to attend a conference in Vienna on the music business, specifically on file-sharing, new technologies, and the adaptation of intellectual property law to these new technologies.

Background: a few years ago, Felix Oberhauzer-Gee et al published an article in the Journal of Political Economy asserting that file-sharing has had no impact on the music business. On the face of it, this conclusion seems worse than implausible. Beyond the implausibility, it turns out that their research had many errors, mistakes, and misrepresentations. These problems were made clear by Stan Liebowitz. Both Oberhauzer-Gee and Liebowitz are here at the conference. This should be fun.

Opening remarks are going on now. The first presentation is by Peter Tshmuck, conference organizer, who will provide a review of literature concerning music file-sharing. How he presents this should also provide some insight into his own views on the O-G - L controversy.

What Ten Books Would You Save in a Fire?My Answer: None.

I came across this question the other day while reading this (likely via Craig Newmark). I thought about the question for a few minutes, and then I realized my answer is "none".

Not that I want the contents of books to disappear. Even I am not so much of an unlettered person that I would wish for that.

Rather, it's that I don't read books as books much anymore. I read books on the internet, I read books on my iPhone, but I don't often read hard copy books. And the ones I read as hard copy are generally (like most textbooks) so unimportant to me in the grand scheme of things that I wouldn't really miss them anyway (in part because they were sent to me by publishers at no charge). 

And in another 5-10 years I will hold this view even more strongly. I really doubt there will be many, if any, books in the homes of most of us or even in most libraries that are not available electronically.

This realization makes several things more interesting.

• First, censorship and control of the internet will be increasingly important. I hope people will continue to work for maintaining freedom of expression via the internet.
• Book burnings will be a thing of the past, if they aren't already. 

Ms. Eclectic and I both use our iPhones to read books electronically. They are very light and portable and are capable of carrying tonnes of books. I see little or no reason to buy books when the electronic versions are so much more convenient. And increasingly educators will be moving in this same direction.

If there were a fire, I would grab my laptop and iPhone long before I would think about saving my hardbound copies of Balzac or Shakespeare or Ayn Rand.

More Reflections on the Use and Misuse of PowerPoint

I detest most power-point presentations, but I understand they have a role if well-done in some settings. Of the three power-point presentations I have ever made, here are the details:

1. a presentation at a corporate convention about the state of the economy. I was told I must use power-point for the presentation. It was my first experience with doing up the slides for one. My slides were mostly graphs or condensed tables (large fonts, lots of open space, small amounts of info on each slide) which I then discussed or explained.
2. a presentation for a local organization about the financial crisis. Again, very few points per slide, mostly talking points.
3. I then used that presentation about the financial crisis as the basis for one of my intro econ lectures last year.

I especially don't like power point in the classroom. It has the same drawbacks as fancy prepared overheads that we still see in some settings and that were so prevalent back in the 1980s: students don't know whether to copy down what is on the slide or to listen to the prof. And if the prof does little more than read the slides AND make them available online, students might as well take the course online; there is no reason to attend the lecture. 

I do make my lecture notes available online. However, these are cryptic notes and are certainly not substitutes for either the textbook or the lectures. 

I can readily imagine that some well-prepared powerpoint slides with animation, etc., could help explain some of the concepts better than I do on a chalkboard or using blank transparencies to write my notes on an overhead projector. But these slides need careful development to provide positive learning experiences rather than merely being dazzling displays of graphic design.

What I cannot imagine, though, is giving classes using only overhead slides or powerpoint slides provided by a textbook publisher. When I read this [h/t Craig Newmark], I was flabbergasted. Are there really professors who prepare so poorly and who are so poorly informed that they cannot do any better than read off slides prepared by someone else? Or is it just that they are trained and expected to give such horrible lectures?

The Full Popular Science Archive Is Available On-Line

I used to read Popsci now and then as a teen. I don't know that I'd have much interest in this now, but some of you might.

Hella: a VERY Large Number

In casual conversation, people often say, "That's a hella lot" .... I guess.... But now many folks are hoping to formalize the term. Kilo, mega, giga, tera, .... , hella.  From the Daily Mail (h/t MA),

A campaign to name the number 1,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000,000 'hella' is attracting strong support from scientists.

An online petition started in California - where the word 'hella' is slang for 'many' - is calling for the word to become an internationally recognised prefix, joining the likes of mega, kilo and giga.

The word would apply to figures with 27 zeros after the first digit.

The Scunthorpe Problem

What do each of the following have in common?

• Scunthorpe, North Lincolnshire, England
• Penistone, South Yorkshire
• Lightwater, Surrey

The answer is here [h/t JJ]

What the iPad-2 Should Become (assuming iPad-1 Survives the iEdsel Phase)

Following up on my previous postings on this topic, here's what I was hoping the iPad would be:

• Mac Air guts: power, reliability, speed, lightness
• twist-top tablet screen so you can use a real keyboard or use it as a tablet (I think some of the Fuji Lifebooks had this feature). This feature would also allow users to carry it with less concern about potential damage to the screen. Having to type on the screen is not at all convenient or comfortable.
• Touch screen to take advantage of all the wonderful possibilities.

In other words, I would see it as a potential replacement for my laptop, not as just an over-grown, snazzy version of the iTouch.

iPad Trademark Problems? How about iEdsel?

It has quickly emerged that many products already exist with the name iPad, including bra pads and shoulder pads:

[T]here is an iPad made just for Victoria and her secrets. A small Canadian company called Coconut Grove Pads Inc. has been making a line of polyurethane bra inserts and shoulder pads registered as the iPad, since 2007.

.... There also may be a more serious issue. Japanese computer company Fujitsu Ltd. also markets a device called the iPad. The handheld device is made for retail stores to help them manage inventory, do checkouts on the spot and communicate with co-workers. The Fujitsu iPad has been in use since 2002. The company applied for a trademark on the name in 2003, according to U.S. Patent and Trademark Office records. The trademark was never granted to Fujitsu, however, and a fight is now brewing as Apple considers whether to file an objection with the agency to claim its right to the name.

I haven't seen an iPad (of any type, insert or electronic). But based on what I have read, I don't think I would want one of Apple's. It is not as convenient to use as an older-style tablet PC and it is too big to carry in my pocket. In other words, it would be yet another gizmo to carry around, and it wouldn't fit in my pocket.

My reaction: why bother? and judging from the slight downward trend in the price of Apple's stock since news of the product began coming out over a month ago, maybe analysts share my perception.

It might be another example of a glitzy product that some people will rush out to buy but others will rationally avoid. If that happens, Apple can rename it the iEdsel. Or maybe iBetaMax.