First, let me say, I can't believe there have been 50 Superbowls, following the merger of the AFL and NFL.
Second, let me say that the spread sure has changed a lot over the past two weeks. Right after the conference championship games, the spread shown on Yahoo Sports opened at Carolina by 4. If I had made my pick then, I would have taken Carolina -4 for sure. [Other initials spreads were as low as -3.5; see below].
The Super Bowl 50 line is on the move and it's moving. After opening up as 4.5-point favorites, the Carolina Panthers are now [EE: as of Feb 4th, the date of this article] 5.5-point favorites to beat the Denver Broncos. ...
It shouldn't be a tremendous surprise: nearly 80 percent of the public money is currently on the Panthers when it comes to against-the-spread bets.
Most sportsbooks detailed a huge initial rush of money on the Broncos when the line opened with the Panthers as 5.5-point favorites, causing the number to head back down, as low as 4 points.
What followed was significant money on Carolina, with very little action on the Broncos.
"I can't remember a more one-sided betting Super Bowl," William Hill US's director of trading Nick Bogdanovich told ESPN.
As a result, books are moving the line higher and higher, although it stands to reason the Panthers might max out giving 6 points.
According to some earlier articles, the spread from some books went as high as Carolina by 6.5 points. But it looks as if the betting is settling down at Carolina by 5.5 points. From SB*Nation,
The Denver defense is amazingly good. Well, so is the Carolina defense (though mistakes by Arizona made them look even better in the conference championship game.
At the same time, Newton and Manning are both superb quarterbacks, albeit with quite different qualities and abilities. I've noticed that some pretty knowledgeable people are picking Denver plus the points (see this).
But I'm picking Carolina minus 5.5
That and steak and a veggie tray and some cider.