EclectEcon

Structural vs. Cyclical Unemployment

I have never liked the distinction between cyclical and structural unemployment. Maybe it is useful for some purposes, but it is at least as likely to be misleading as useful. Stephen Ayer notes the following use of the distinction in a NY Fed paper by Groshen and Potter

Cyclical adjustments are reversible responses to lulls in demand, while structural adjustments transform a firm or industry by relocating workers and capital. The job losses associated with cyclical shocks are temporary: at the end of the recession, industries rebound and laid-off workers are recalled to their old firms or readily find comparable employment with another firm. Job losses that stem from structural changes, however, are permanent: as industries decline, jobs are eliminated, compelling workers to switch industries, sectors, locations, or skills in order to find a new job.

I propose a different scenario:

Suppose there is rapid technological change in a number of industries. Suppose further that as a result, the marginal productivity of labour sky-rockets in those industries. Labour is attracted to those industries, not forced from the old, unchanging industries. Old industries decline and jobs are lost there, but at the same time, there are many new jobs and opportunities in new and growing industries.

How long does it take labour to move from one job to a different one? In general, probably no longer than it takes to sit home on unemployment waiting for a call-back on a cyclical unemployment job.

I much prefer to think of unemployment as job search.

More on the New Food Triangle

For some reason, my piece linking to Kip Esquire's posting, receives considerable interest via Google and Yahoo search engines. Here is another, that concludes pizza forms the perfect food triangle.

See? There's even a little delivery guy coming up the porch steps.

I expect the gubmnt report was referring to pizza slices since they are shaped like triangles.

Oxfam and the WWF are Free-Traders

At least it seems so when the circumstances suit them.

Trade Minister Mark Vaile says Australian farmers will benefit from a World Trade Organisation (WTO) ruling that the European Union's (EU) sugar subsidies are illegal.

Australia, Brazil and Thailand had brought the case against the 25-nation bloc.

The 25-nation bloc had attempted to overturn last year's finding by a panel of trade judges on several million tonnes of surplus EU sugar output, known as "C" sugar.

The judges had found that while the sugar should have been exported without subsidies, it was benefiting from state aid.

...Activist groups like Oxfam and WWF, which are frequent critics of the WTO's staunchly free-trade line, have applauded.

They say that the EU must now "radically reform its scandalous sugar regime."

One of the big questions will be whether decisions like this will carry any weight. Will the EU comply? and, if so, how much? We in Canada know that the U.S. has been an extreme foot-dragger, and there is little reason to expect anything different from the EU.
[h/t to BrianF for the link]

A Slightly Different Version of Comparative Advantage

From Forbes magazine (link courtesy of Newmark's Door):

The more transparent an economy becomes, the more David Ricardo's 19th-century law of comparative advantage rules the day. Then came the commercial Internet, the greatest window into comparative advantage ever invented. Which means if your firm's price-value proposition is lousy, too bad. The world knows.

Well, that is one way of looking at comparative advantage. Here is another.

What matters is not the absolute cost of production, but rather the ratio between how easily the two countries can produce different kinds of things.

The High Price of Erotica

A biscuit tin produced in Liverpool in the 1970s sold at auction for 119 pounds this week. [h/t to BrianF for the pointer]. And the reason had nothing to do with the Fabulous Four.

The Huntley and Palmer [no relation] tin, made in the 1970s at the company's Liverpool factory, appears on first glance to show an idyllic lunchtime scene.

On closer inspection, the illusion of tranquillity is shattered by drawings in the background of a naked couple.

These are said to have been added by a designer who had just been sacked.

...Amid the scenes of ladies and children lunching around a table at a Manor House, are said to be those of a man and woman locked in an amorous embrace in a flower bed.

The tin also depicts two dogs mating behind a tree and a jam jar decorated with an obscene label.

I wonder whether these scenes had a subliminal seduction effect that boosted sales of the tins before people consciously knew about the scenes.

Always Low Prices

Discerning readers have undoubtedly noticed the most recent Blog Ad that has begun to appear on The Eclectic Econoclast (and Newmark's Door).

Click here to read what Kevin at Always Low Prices has to say about the organization.
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I have no idea why they decided to advertise on these blogs, but I thank them for their contribution to the furtherance of free market capitalism.

New Standards in Gubmnt

From New Zealand:

Labour MP Dover Samuels appears to have been caught up in an embarrassing incident in an Auckland hotel.

Newstalk ZB says Samuels told them he urinated in a corridor of the Heritage Hotel nearly three weeks ago after attending a function.

The radio station says Samuels told them he couldn't get into his room because of a faulty key, and relieved himself in front of the duty manager.

Samuels had earlier denied any incident when contacted by One News.

The hotel has refused to comment.

Okay, now. Everyone in unison:

1. What is the risk?
2. Who is the least-cost bearer of the risk?

Link via Rodney Hide, who is not a labour MP in New Zealand. Check out the comments, too!

I Hate Minority Gubmnts

The reason I especially dislike minority Liberal gubmnts is that if they don't get in bed with the socialists, they face another election, and they usually prefer sleeping with socialists.

Mike, at London Fog, has two quotes that are appropriate for this situation. The first is from H.L. Mencken:

"The government consists of a gang of men exactly like you and me. They have, taking one with another, no special talent for the business of government; they have only a talent for getting and holding office. Their principal device to that end is to search out groups who pant and pine for something they can't get and to promise to give it to them. Nine times out of ten that promise is worth nothing. The tenth time is made good by looting A to satisfy B. In other words, government is a broker in pillage, and every election is sort of an advance auction sale of stolen goods."

And this one is from Andrew Coyne:

So now we know: there is no price Paul Martin isn't willing to make you pay to save his job. And there is no amount of corruption Jack Layton won't overlook as long as the price is right: at $4.6-billion, it works out to about $250 million per NDP MP. About the same price as the sponsorship program, as it happens.

Tom Sowell, Green Spaces, and Community Choice

I really enjoy about 95% of everything that Tom Sowell writes. He is an articulate spokesman for letting the market decide resource allocation, and he is firmly opposed to most gubmnt interventions in the marketplace.

One area where he is incorrect deals with the preservation of open green space in some counties of California. His most recent attack is on San Mateo County. He constantly [in this piece and many previous ones] rails about how "open space" laws have led to a shortage of developable land and to astronomical housing prices in the San Fransisco area:

Who can afford to live in such a place? Fewer people apparently. The population of the county declined by about 9,000 people over the past four years.

Who's leaving -- and who is coming in? By and large, young adults who have not yet reached their peak earnings years are finding it harder to afford housing in San Mateo County and in other such counties up and down the peninsula from San Francisco to San Jose. So they are leaving.
Schools have had to be closed because there are not enough children. The number of children is declining because people young enough to have school children are increasingly unable to afford the sky-high housing prices in communities that ban the building of housing.

...Among other things, this means that many young adults cannot afford to live near their parents, unless they actually live in their parents' home. This isolates the elderly from their children, which can be a growing problem as the infirmities of age set in and their contemporary friends die off. [h/t to BF for the link]

The positive economics in the column is correct, but I do not agree with the implied normatives. What is so horribly wrong with these effects? People who live in a given area want a given outcome, and so they vote to obtain it. People who do not wish to pay the price to live in San Francisco, surrounded by open spaces have plenty of options elsewhere; they can get different jobs and live in Kansas, for example.

Why should people who now have the benefit of the open spaces be forced by Tom Sowell to give up their open spaces so that more housing can be built in their communities?

What is wrong with letting communities decide for themselves how much open space they want and letting people, over time, vote with their feet?

States' Rights and Judicial Authority

Phil Miller does an excellent job of breaking down the arguments by realtors that they should have state laws prohibiting some realtors from offereing lower commissions (with the attendant lower services, possibly).

People often think of regulation as a way for the public to fight the big guys who try to take advantage of the little guys. But far too often, those being regulated hide behind the regulation - they actually prefer it. The millions of consumers who stand to gain from competition will likely gain much more than the concentrated interests stand to lose. So why don't they band together and fight? Each consumer gains so little at the margin that it little behooves any one of them to orgainize an attack on regulation lobbied for by concentrated interests such as realtors' groups.

Just the opposite is true for the concentrated interest. What it stands to receive from the regulation is not widely dispersed, so for individuals within the interest, their gains at the margin do provide incentive to fight. So the concentrated interests put forth resources to enact or enhance regulatory legislation while consumers take it up the driveway.

He has a really good critique of the realtors' position, and I recommend that you read the whole thing.

The only concern I have is that the U.S. Department of Justice is attacking the state gubmnts for their anti-competitive laws. That strikes me as possibly unreasonable [and it is a point at which I might question Phil's posting on this topic].

The Justice Department has sent notes to legislators Oklahoma asking it not to support legislation meant to keep competition out of the real estate market. It also sued the Kentucky Real Estate Commission for other measures that limited competition in the marketplace. The realtors' groups say they want to ensure that people get competent representation...

I agree with Phil that the realtors' groups' arguments are bogus. But why is it efficient for the federal gubmnt to intervene in intrastate commerce AND tell some states that their laws violate federal antitrust law? Why doesn't it attack the U.S. Congress for the Robinson-Patman Act?

Boycott UK Universities!

A few days ago, I wrote this about the AUT Anti-Semitic boycott of several Israeli universities. The current boycott is just the latest in a string of similar anti-Semitic actions taken by many UK scholars. But as John Furedy of SAFS wrote to the National Post about a previous boycott attempt back on January 4, 2003,

Soon after the start of the boycott, the Society for Academic Freedom and Scholarship, a small Canadian organization, condemned it as an act of "academic cannibalism". However, the main academic organization in this country, the Canadian Association of University Teachers .[CAUT].. remains silent. That is not to take a "nuanced", but rather a head-in-the-sand view.

Here is what Gadi Taub, a professor at Hebrew University, wrote about the present boycott [thanks to M.A. for the link]:

In this instance I am hard-pressed to explain the affair without taking anti-Semitism into account.

As an effort ostensibly designed to promote human rights, the boycott – launched precisely when Israel is moving to end the occupation – is puzzling. It is also striking that the British Association of University Teachers (AUT) has taken no similar steps against any other violation of such rights elsewhere in the world.

Academics from regimes where genuine ethnic cleansing, genocide and human rights crimes are regular occurrences remain welcome at Britain's universities. China's occupation of Tibet, to take only one obvious example, does not seem to bother the AUT. Whatever Israel's human rights failings – and I have been among those critical of government policies – the AUT's hypocrisy is too much to take.

... I MYSELF am not affected by the boycott. My university, the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, has thus far been excluded from the gag rule, and I also qualify under the exception clause, having been publicly critical of my government. But I'll opt in anyway. I have no wish to be excluded from the boycott because I don't consider these exclusions honest. As a Jew, not just an Israeli, I prefer henceforth not to accept any invitations from British universities participating in the boycott. And I urge my fellow Jewish academics around the world to do the same.

In support of the above position, I hereby proclaim the following and urge others, including the CAUT, to do likewise:

• I will referee no articles published or edited in the UK.
• I will submit no articles to journals published in the UK.
• I will accept no invitations from UK universities participating in the boycott.
• I will invite no academics from the UK to any conferences unless the person has renounced the position of the AUT on Israel's universities.
• I will accept no ideas or links from any UK academic who has not renounced the AUT position on Israeli universities.

Fiscal Federalism Unmasked

Canada's Liberal minority gubmnt has threatened that if there is a new election called soon, and if they are not returned to power, then Canada's cities will not receive a redistribution of gasoline taxes that the gubmnt had promised to the mayors of the cities.

In a posting called "Pimping for the Liberals," Lisa of London Fog lays it on the line:

So here we see one possible way the thieving Liberals will get back into power - if we don't vote them back into power, the trough money might be lost! Those conservatives won't support our 'partisan agenda', so we'll stick to the party that does. As for the billions shamelessly stolen from taxpayers - well, they won't do it again I am sure.

In the interest of securing their own corrupt and blood sucking positions, these mayors forget to mention where all the money comes from in the first place - taxpayers across the country. London's funding Toronto, Alberta is funding Ontario - everyone is funding everyone and no one is getting what they want. Pass the pot and see how much you can grab before the next guy makes a demand.

In an era of reduced mobility costs, surely we should be relying more on allowing and encouraging people to move from one jurisdiction to another if they want to improve their lot. It far less defensible now than it was 50 years ago that we tax people in one jurisdiction or at one level of gubmnt to subsidize people in others; doing so just adds to the layers of inefficiency and bureaucracy.

Fast Food Fingers

Although the woman who "discovered" a finger in her chili at Wendy's has been arrested for attempted grand theft, here is a different story about getting the finger from a fast-food outlet [thanks to Jack for the pointer]:

...he realized something wasn't right when he bit into the sandwich on June 18 and found a piece of flesh about three-fourths of an inch long.

"It looked like I was seeing fingerprints on it," he said. "I got sick and went to the bathroom."

Miami County health investigators talked to the restaurant manager, who had a bandage on his right thumb and wore a latex glove, according to a health district report. The manager said he sliced skin from the thumb while shredding lettuce, and sanitized the area but didn't throw away the bin of lettuce, the report said. Scheiding's sandwich contained lettuce.

The victim is suing for over $50,000, which strikes me as a paltry sum in our litigious society. Arby's [the firm in question] should cut a cheque today.

Furthermore, their managers should be given a two-day course [I'm available] on risks and expected costs. As I would ask my economic analysis of law students:

• What is the risk?
• Who is the least-cost bearer of the risk?

That helps us understand where the efficient assignment of liability lies.

Secret Dubai

For an insightful perspective on life in Dubai and the UAE, take a look at Secret Dubai. [Thanks to JC of the Emirates Economist for the pointer].

In one of their posts, they discuss the propagation properties of Daad Mohammed Murad:

"Already head of the largest family in the UAE, Daad Mohammed Murad Abdul Rahman is about to marry for the twelfth time. Daad, 57, has 68 children by his first 11 wives, with two more on the way. A near-fatal road accident may have cost him one leg, but it has done nothing to dampen his spirits."

Daad's reasons for so many wives and kids are far from compelling. He wants to "remove the demographic imbalance" of Asian expatriates - despite the fact that eight out of his first eleven wives are Asian. He wants them to act as a defence "in case of any foreign invasion." And he wants to get into the Guiness Book of Records....

"Daad relies on his wives to do much of the housework, so he says he needs to replace them when they get too old. When one woman became weak, another strong one had to be brought in to manage the home."

The fate of the women he divorces is also not mentioned.

Every posting at this blog has pithy insight. Here is another. And whatever you do, don't miss this one about someone jailed for having broken wind in front of a lady.
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Digression:
In an earlier posting, I wrote about polygamy:

As a male who would likely have risked being left without a partner in a society that permitted polygamy, I am understandably opposed to polygamy out of pure self-interest. It strikes me that in a society of free choice, permitting polygamy only increases the demand for women as potential marriage partners, thus making women better off relative to men, in comparison with the situation under monogamy.

Several female commenters at the time pointed out that they might prefer fewer material goods in exchange for a more meaningful monogamous relationship.

Further Evidence that Canada Should Develop a Nuclear Weapons Programme

Or maybe Canada should just develop a truckload of enriched uranium, for peaceful purposes only, of course, nudge nudge.... [thanks to Jack for the link]

Speaking to reporters five days before Iran is to resume nuclear talks with France, Britain and Germany, Hamid Reza Asefi said the Europeans appeared to be serious in seeking an agreement with Iran. But he added that any settlement had to respect Iran's right, as a signatory to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, to enrich uranium.

Everyone has learned from the North Korean case. It is advantageous to continue to negotiate [i.e. extract further concessions] but that advantage is lost once the country actually gives up its nuclear weapons programme or loses it in an attack by the Israelis (just ask Saddam).

As a matter of diplomacy, it is time for Canadians to recognize that the only way we can deal on an equal basis with the U.S. is to have a few nukes pointed their way.

Eggs Benedict

The latest breakfast fad


source: Stephen Pollard
[Thanks to Anonymous Jake for the link]

The Future for Oil Prices

Steve Polos of Export Development Canada says oil prices are likely to drop:

Oil prices have retreated from record highs, and appear to be heading lower. Was it all a bad dream? Or is this just a short respite before we head to three-digit oil pricing?

The world oil market has been in turmoil for nearly two years. Prices have been driven higher on fears of disruptions to supply – we have had military action in the Middle East, political tensions in Venezuela and Nigeria, and hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico. All of these developments had the potential to knock oil markets on their heels and send prices into a major upward spiral.

The thing is, it didn’t happen. Despite all those problems, both real and feared, not a single supply disruption has been reported.

... Now, after seeing prices approach $60, and after seeing forecasts of oil prices of $100 per barrel or more, markets seem to be relaxing. Prices have fallen to the $50 range, and look poised to go lower.

... It certainly seems that we have entered an era of higher-priced oil. But suffice to say that oil prices of $100, $50, or even $40 sow the seeds of their own destruction – less demand, and more supply. Expect oil prices to remain high, but to keep trickling down.

Okay. If he says so. I'm not sure I agree, but I cannot make a case to disagree either.

UPDATE: See here for Tom Luongo's case for why we should disagree. I'm not persuaded by it, either [e.g., if world demand is growing, why are no new refineries being built, as he suggests is the case?]

One reason to love futures markets: we can bet with our money on which case we think is stronger.

UPDATE #2: Stephen Ayer of disinterested party agrees with Steve Polos. His case is pretty strong that oil prices will go down over the next year.

A Double Whammy

Two items of bad news:

1. Demonstrations and expected riots against globalization, embodied in the minds of protesters as the G8, and

2. The closing of a McDonald's in the expected demonstration area.

It's enough to make a free-trade proponent quarter-pounder lover cry. Or scream about the lack of law and order.

FAST-FOOD giant McDonald’s is planning to close two of its city centre branches during this summer’s G8 protests.

Restaurant bosses fear the company’s outlets on Princes Street and South St Andrew Street will be prime targets for hundreds of anti-capitalist protesters expected to descend on the city.

A two-day closure would cost McDonald’s more than £50,000 in takings, but it is so concerned about the welfare of employees and customers that it is set to take the unprecedented step.

The burger chain has been hit by angry protests at all recent G8 summits, and branches have been trashed while customers and staff were still inside.

Now McDonald’s chiefs admit they are drawing up special security measures to prevent activists targeting their two biggest Edinburgh restaurants on the first weekend in July.

I hope they are successful.
[h/t to BF for the link]

New Manitoba Flag

Sean Incognito posts that some politicos in Manitoba would like the province to adopt a new flag design. He suggests

...one wonders what specific design elements could be included to make it uniquely ours.

A stylized mosquito on a background of Arctic White? The Golden Boy, topped by a bust of Burton Cummings, riding a bison?

The "Golden Boy" refers to hockey hero, Bobby Hull.

A giant mosquito? possibly a red one, replacing the maple leaf in the current Canadian flag. Great idea!

Update: Did I ever goof! from the comments:

Bobby Hull is the Golden Jet. The Golden Boy is the figure on top of the Legislative Building in Winnipeg....

Thanks for the correction! But a flag with the Golden Jet on it might be worthy of consideration, too.

NetSkool

Netskool provides a fascinating market, with an interesting type of auction at work.

Students set a problem, a date by which they need a solution, and a price they are willing to pay. Gee, it sounds like William Shatner and Price-Line. Here is a link to their homepage. Note this:

We will look over the problem set and determine if we can help you. If an [sic] tutor is willing to assist you, payment instructions will be included in the e-mail.

Let's hope they don't tutor in English.

I wonder if the prices offered by students rise as the due date for an assignment draws near and desperation sets in.

I wonder how the students would react if they submitted a[n] request, and it was answered by their instructor. I know how I would react as an instructor if I were moonlighting this way and came across a request for help from one of my students!

I love the spelling in the company name, Netskool. I often refer to our university's Ivey School of Business as "the bizskool".

Mystery Weekend

I have done a little semi-professional acting over the past five or so years , most recently concentrating on mystery dinner theatres. These are shows that involve a number of short, scripted scenes intermingled with dinner and copious improv work and audience interaction; then someone is murdered, and the audience tries to solve the crime. The shows are loads of fun, and the pay almost covers my gas expenses. Here is a description of the acting group I usually work with.

Motto: We'll go anywhere to kill someone for you.

This weekend I will be doing my first Mystery Weekend. It is similar to the mystery dinner theatres, except there are more scenes, more characters, and the show stretches from Friday evening until Sunday noon at a rural golf and country club.

I may not have an internet connection while I'm there, but even if I do, "Blogging may be light" as a result of my non-stop involvement in the show.

My role: Jean Fortescu, marine biologist who develops intimate relationships with dolphins.
This photo comes into play at one point during the show.

We're Number 74!

And climbing!

When Craig Newmark first linked to this page, The Eclectic Econoclast was listed as 75th among all economics blogs. As of this writing, the blog is up to 74th.

I have no idea what the criteria are for this ranking of economics blogs.

Isn't all this blogtrospection amusing? It reminds me of all the article/page/character/citation count articles I did with Stan Liebowitz over twenty years ago.

"It's My Horn"

The lead French horn player [Jason] in the Bayfield Winds is very good; I play second horn in the group, and it is a real thrill to play along side him.

At our last rehearsal, every time there was a break, Jason would take a huge gulp or two of Coke. This is something we were always taught was a serious no-no when I was growing up. The sugar from the Coke gets inside the horn and gunks it up to the point that eventually the horn has to be sent off for chemical cleaning.

So after about the third or fourth time Jason took a swig of Coke, I asked him about it. His response was to shrug and say in a what-the-hell tone of voice:

It's my horn...

It's a response he developed in high school when he was using his own horn instead of a rental horn. The high school band director would yell at him for drinking Coke and gunking up one of the school's French horns; he'd respond,

It's my horn.

I just love the economics of property rights.

Later, I started thinking some more about the alleged problems of drinking Coke and playing a brass instrument. You know all that stuff that brass players eject from their instruments through mis-named "spit valves"? It isn't spit. It is almost entirely condensation, with practically no spit in it at all. In fact, very little spit gets into a horn -- so little, that some manufacturers now refer to those little valves as "water valves".

And that means that very little sugar or whatever gets into the horn if you drink Coke and then play the horn.

btw, the Bayfield Winds are a very good band - it is quite a treat to play with them.

Disgusting Anti-semitic Challenges to Intellectual Freedom

An academic group in the UK has voted to boycott two Israeli universities.

Members of the Association of University Teachers (AUT) decided to suspend all links with Haifa and Bar-Ilan universities.

They were complicit in a system of "apartheid" towards Palestinians, delegates at the AUT's council heard.

The votes, and lack of debate, have been condemned by pro-Israel groups.

I wonder what they have to say about universities in other countries....
e.g. in countries where the rights of women are considerably less than those of men.

At the same time, these clowns did this:

Delegates voted for more dialogue with Palestinian academics and unions.

Right. As if many Palestinians have never had "drive them into the sea" policies and attitudes toward Israel.

[thanks to Anonymous Jake for the link]

Update: More from Jake:

From the BBC article [linked above]:

At the AUT conference, in Eastbourne, Haifa University was accused of mistreating politics lecturer Ilan Pappe for defending a graduate student's research into controversial areas of Israeli history.
His job had been threatened and he had been victimised, delegates in Eastbourne heard.

But from the Jerusalem Post:

Indeed if British academics wished to experience real academic freedom they would be well advised to spend some time at the very campuses with which they wish to sever all ties. These are far from ideologically homogeneous institutions. Indeed many of the most outspoken critics of Israel's struggle to defend itself hail from Israel's own ivory towers...

The New Food Triangle

Nope, it is not a pyramid, and it doesn't include 12 or 22 or 77 food categories. This one is from Kip Esquire at A Stitch in Time:

Physicists have “superstring theory.” I guess this [the latest food pyramid] is “super-size theory.” The fact that you need a multi-page website to figure any of it out would suggest as much.But what difference does that make? The Politics of the Warm Fuzzy Feeling have been placated. The politicians and the bureaucrats “did something.” The fact that it’s something bizarre at best and moronic at worst is entirely irrelevant. Here’s my pyramid:

eat less, exercise more, avoid the garbage

Doesn’t look like a pyramid? Too bad — like Superstring Theory, it, um, works.

Works for me.... when I follow it.

Why I Use Purple Pens

George Will takes note of several different articles about the growing use of purple pens by teachers, instead of the traditional red pens or pencils, to grade tests and assignments.

Manufacturers of pens and markers report a surge in teachers' demands for purple ink pens. When marked in red, corrections of students' tests seem so awfully judgmental. At a Connecticut school, parents consider red markings "stressful." A Pittsburgh principal favors more "pleasant-feeling tones." An Alaska teacher says substituting purple for red is compassionate pedagogy, a shift from "Here's what you need to improve on" to "Here's what you have done right."

I like to think of myself as a compassionate, caring-sharing type of person, but my use of purple pens has nothing to do with useless mamby-pampyisms about feel-good pedagogy.

I began using purple pens to grade exams and term papers many years ago. The reason was simple: students often used red, blue, black, and even green ink to write their answers and especially to draw graphs (with copious multi-colour line shifts). I wanted a colour that was different from theirs, and none of them used purple [even though one of the slogans at my institution is "Purple and Proud"].

How long will my purple pens be distinctive if more teachers are using purple in grade school and high school?

A sure sign that purple is becoming more popular: Cross markets a purple refill (for their Ion pen), and other refills are also available in purple as well.

Are We Prepared for Avian Flu?

Tyler Cowen has expressed concern about avian flu in several postings at Marginal Revolution [see here and here, for example]. He even started a blog about it, where Sylvia Dochia writes:

Notable findings of epidemiological investigations of human H5N1 cases in Vietnam during 2005 have suggested transmission of H5N1 viruses to two persons through consumption of uncooked duck blood. Possible person-to-person transmission of H5N1 viruses is being investigated in several clusters of cases in Vietnam.

In addition, BenS has sent me this link [registration required, footnotes deleted], which says, in part,

The world faces a new influenza pandemic about 3 times each century. The 1918 pandemic killed at least 20 million people. We don't know when the next one will hit, but flu experts agree that we are now at high risk for a serious pandemic. H5N1 flu has become endemic in Asian birds, and at least 74 human cases, including 49 deaths and probable human-to-human transmission, have occurred since the beginning of 2004.

We are unprepared for a new pandemic. International health officials lack the resources to monitor avian flu in a human population of hundreds of millions in affected parts of Asia, including some countries with almost no public health systems. Asia needs a significant stockpile of the anti-influenza drug oseltamavir, on-site, to treat and stop transmission of the early cases that could give rise to a pandemic.

If a pandemic reached the United States today, we could manufacture only enough vaccine for perhaps a quarter of our population. Our planned domestic stockpile of oseltamavir would leave over 99% of the country unprotected. Proportionally, Great Britain's stockpile will be 25 times greater, and some authorities suggest that even that isn't enough. To make a dent in a pandemic, vaccines and antivirals will be needed in much greater quantities than current plans allow.

So why doesn't normal risk-taking entrepreneurship in the marketplace deal with this potential problem efficiently? Or does it?

This Is News?

"There are increasing signs that US motorists are changing their driving habits in the face of record prices at the fuel pumps."

Stop the presses! Demand curves are not vertical after all!
People do respond to incentives.

[h/t to BrianF for the link]

And here is some related non-news news:

Economists Uncertain Of Energy Costs' Impact

Well, yes.

Actually, the article itself is pretty decent -- the headline, however, does not do justice to the article.

Although economists agree that surging energy costs in March and early April dampened economic growth, they say it is unclear whether the U.S. economy has cooled only briefly or has begun a more serious slump.

The very fact that oil and gas prices have swung so much over the past year creates "added uncertainty" for businesses and consumers, who may then hunker down more than expected, said David Rosenberg, chief North American economist for Merrill Lynch & Co.

...Energy prices are complicating the Fed's job of setting interest rates to promote growth while keeping inflation low.

After their last policymaking meeting March 22, Fed officials issued a statement noting rising inflation pressures and a growing ability of businesses to raise prices. Some analysts took that as a warning that the Fed might raise interest rates more aggressively in coming months.

But other observers said that energy prices, by slowing growth, reduce pressure on the Fed to move rates up faster. That should enable the Fed to continue to raise its benchmark rate at a gradual, or "measured," pace, they said.

[link via The Knowledge Problem (be sure to read the comments there as well)]

My Favourite TV Ad

Back in December, I posted this:

My favourite ad on tv these days is the Fed Ex ad in which everyone hides from the ogre-boss. It is very well done. In our home, everything stops, and we all watch tv any time that ad appears. If you know of a link to it, please send it to me. Thanks.

Recently Peter Mork was discussing his favourite ads on his excellent blog, Economics with a Face. In one of his pieces, he posted a link to the very ad I like so much. It is still my favourite.

Thanks, Peter!

Franz Kafka Meets Monty Python in Australia

If I quote something you said, is that "hate speech"? Maybe....

It took place in an Australian court where two Christian pastors were found guilty of "religious vilification" of Muslims by lecturing to their flock on Islam -- a set-up that right away projects grimly satirical possibilities. At one point during the trial, defendant Daniel Scot began to read Quranic verses in his own defense. The Pakistani-born pastor hoped to prove to the judge that his discussion on the inferior status of women under Islam, for example, had a specific textual basis in the Quran.

As he began to read, a lawyer for the Islamic Council of Victoria, the plaintiff in the case, objected. Reading these verses aloud, she said, would in itself be vilification. Scot, ultimately convicted, put it best: "How can it be vilifying to Muslims when I am just reading from the Quran?"

The article continues, pointing out that recent capitulation by The National Review to CAIR might seem pretty similar.

[Thanks to AnneQ and BenS for the link]

Update: I see that JC at the Emirates Economist has a posting on hate speech today, too.