According the Gary Becker's model of criminal behaviour, criminal activity will increase when its expected benefits increase relative to the expected costs. Similarly, if the expected benefits of crime fall (relative to the expected costs), people will engage in less crime.
And that is precisely what the data show in England [h/t MA]:
Burglaries have dropped as criminals turn to street muggings because domestic electrical items are now so cheap they are not worth stealing, according to a new report.
Why risk breaking into a home to steal a microwave or DVD player if DVD players sell new for $30 or less and microwaves sell for $60 or less at Wal-Mart? And wide-screen tvs are pretty cheap, too. It's far more lucrative to mug people, steal their smartphones or iPods, and resell those items.
Mr Treadwell [University of Leicester's Department of Criminology] found that there were 1.28 million domestic burglaries in England and Wales in 1999 - almost one in ten crimes recorded by The British Crime Survey.
But in 2008/2009 there were 744,000 burglaries - a fall of 536,000....
Mr Treadwell said: ''While we might have seen a decline in some types of crime, we have seen a rise in other forms of criminal activity, particularly young people who seem to be mugging one another.
''While DVD players for example, got cheaper, certain consumer items became smaller and were very, very expensive and sought after and so the latest mobile phone, or the latest ipod, which people carry about them, have become targets for robbers.''