The allegations of wrong-doing during Canada's last federal election are rife: people were directed to the wrong polling stations, people were phoned with misleading information and outright lies about various candidates, and further allegations have been made that many of the complaints were orchestrated by opposition groups.
One interesting question is whether any of these immoral, if not illegal, actions affected the outcome of the election. An early study indicated they did, but that study has been pretty seriously ridiculed and criticized here (h/t GN). The summary:
A Note on Robocalls in the 2011 Federal Election
SummaryRecently Prof. Anke S. Kessler of Simon Fraser University published a working paper on a regression model that suggests alleged robocalling had “a statistically significant impact on voter turnout and election results” by suppressing anti-Conservative turnout in 27 ridings in 2011.I estimated her regression model using 27 other, similar ridings, where there were no robocall allegations (though the PMO may have used secret mind control devices to suppress anti-Conservative turnout). Not surprisingly (to me), Prof. Kessler’s model suggests that the effect of theentirely fictional mind control devices was greater than the effect of the alleged robocalls.
I have been upset by dirty tricks during elections ever since I first learned about the extent of them in All the President's Men. They upset and bother me now, too. But being upset about them should not colour our willingness to examine the issues critically.