EclectEcon

Out of Sight Productions Christmas Play

My friend, Kelly Macdonald, has sent out the following press release. I will certainly be going to one of the shows:

 

Join Out of Sight Productions for
a Special Christmas Presentation of
"A Christmas for Carole" 

 

London, Ontario, November 12, 2012 - To celebrate the spirit of the Christmas season, Out of Sight Productions is pleased to present "A Christmas for Carole". Inspired by an old time radio script, our presentation is adapted by Paul Kinsella and directed by Julia Ferguson.

 

Times were tough for everyone during those depression-era days but especially tough for a young family with a baby on the way and illness looming. Paul's job at the bank is secure but low paying and he has always been an honest man, but there's this old school buddy with a plan to get some money that Paul so badly needs for his family to survive. Please join us for this classic tale of double cross and trickery.

 

"A Christmas for Carole" is at the CNIB Auditorium, 749 Base Line Road East

                   Saturday, December 15 at 3:00pm and 7:30pm

                   Sunday, December 16 at 3:00pm

                   Saturday, December 22 at 3:00pm and 7:30pm

                   Sunday, December 23 at 3:00pm

 

Admission is Free - a small donation to help support the work of Out of Sight Productions would be greatly appreciated.

 

For further information, please contact:
          Kelly MacDonald, Company Director, Out of Sight Production

        Web: www.oosproductions.com

 

Out of Sight Productions thanks you for supporting our unique theatre initiative

 

More About Tiff Macklem

To learn more than we probably need to know about Tiff Macklem, see this article. Let me add that he may not have the media flash of out-going Bank of Canada Governor, Mark Carney, but in addition to his skills and knowedge that I wrote about yesterday, he has a type of poise and calm self-assuredness that will be ideal to see Canada's monetary system through times of instability everywhere else in the world.

If this article doesn't anoint Tiff as the next Governor, it sure comes close to doing so. And the praise he receives from the financial community is well-deserved.

 

Related articles

Calling Tiff Macklem!

Carney's successor? Low-key Tiff Macklem seems a natural fit

Will a new Bank of Canada governor shake up interest rates?

Are Jews a National Security Risk in Hungary?anti-semitism, pure and simple

Despicable.

A Hungarian far-right politician urged the government to draw up lists of Jews who pose a “national security risk”, stirring outrage among Jewish leaders who saw echoes of fascist policies that led to the Holocaust.

And yet nowhere in the article did I see any concern on the part of Jobbik or anyone else about any other group (Palestinians, Arabs, Islamists, etc) whom they might also have included. No matter how they try to dress it up, this is pure and simple anti-semitism.

 

Related articles

Hungarian Parliamentarian Wants Government to Draw up List of Dangerous Jews

Hungary: Far-right leader demands lists of Jews who pose risk to national security

Anger as Hungary far-right leader demands lists of Jews

Hungarian Government Condemns Calls for List of Jews

Hungarian Politician Denounced for Anti-Semitism

The London Lightning...undefeated so far

With the NHL work stoppage, and with the London Knights OHL hockey games nearly or totally sold out so far this season, I'm surprised that there isn't more local interest in the National Basketball League's London Lightning. Yeah, it's minor league basketball, but it's live and local, and it's a decent substitute for everything else. What's more, the London Lightning were league champions last year and are undefeated this season.

For the league, the problem may be that the Lightning are too good. Fans in other cities may want to see the best in the league, but at the same time, they may not be interested in paying to see the local team blown away by the lightning.

Calling Tiff Macklem!

Now that Mark Carney has decided to become the Governor of the Bank of England, the post of Governor of the Bank of Canada will be open as of June1, 2013. Many recent news stories have indicated that Tiff Macklem is the leading candidate for the position (see this, for example).

I hope he receives the appointment. Tiff was a teaching assistant for me way back in the late 1980s, and we have maintained contact off and on since then. When he was at UWO two years ago, we spent some time talking about the 2007 financial crisis, how Canada had dealt with it, and various suggestions about plans for the future.

Tiff understands the problems of 

• regime uncertainty. Who knows the US gubmnt and the US Fed will do next? Well, I guess we don't have any clearer idea about what the Bank of Canada will do either, but we do expect more stability and fewer wild swings in policy.
• liquidity and shadow banks. We had a bit of talk back then about how difficult it is for central banks to follow monetary policy rules when credit expands so much via shadow banks. He will surely keep his eye on this.

Tiff will face some tough problems. The Canadian budget is in deficit, and while the budget situation in Canada is nowhere near as dicey as it is in the US, the deficit is not shrinking as much or as rapidly as people had hoped. At the same time, economic growth (outside Saskatchewan and, to some extent, Alberta) has slowed. People will be clammering for monetary stimulation. At the same time, to maintain the credible stability for which the Bank of Canada has become famous, overinflation of the money supply will not be a desireable option. 

Good luck, Tiff. I hope you get the job. But it will not be nearly so smooth going as it was for Mark Carney.

[addendum: another candidate for the position might be Timothy Lane, who also received his PhD in economics from UWO]

Related articles

Macklem Seen as Probable Carney Bank of Canada Successor

Who will be the next Bank of Canada governor?

Tiff Macklem emerges as front-runner to succeed Mark Carney at Bank of Canada

Carney's deputy seen as favorite to take over at Bank of Canada

Me? A Flower?? Maybe a Snapdragon or a Canna Lily?

I am a Snapdragon What Flower Are You?

 The site's description:

"Mischief is your middle name, but your first is friend. You are quite the prankster that loves to make other people laugh."

Shows what kind of mood I was in when I did that survey. But so many of the questions had answers that didn't quite suit me; or in some cases there was more than one answer that came close. So I retook the survey and got this answer:

I am a Canna What Flower Are You?

And the site's description of me this time?

"You stand up for what you believe in, even if it gets in the way of what other people think. You are proud of yourself and your accomplishments and you enjoy letting people know that."

I guess. After all, I do put a lot of stuff on Facebook.

at least it didn't call me a thistle!

How a Philistine Enjoys Champagne

This is how I open the bottle:

Let's hear it for channel-lock pliers! I use 'em to loosen the cork, and then it pops right out, dead easy. Pushing those puppies up with your thumbs is both painful and stupid. So is trying to hold onto the cork and twisting the bottle with your bare hands. 

The other thing we've discovered is that one bottle neatly fits into two large water glasses, one for each of us. No leftovers, no need to pour refills, etc.

Okay, okay. It isn't champagne, per se. It's Freixenet. But this stuff is inexpensive, dry, and tastes great; we're quite happy with it. 

Jack writes,

I must chastise you on:

1/ Your method of opening bubbly - you should hold the cork and twist the bottle.
2/ Your choice of bubbly - get real!
3/ The glasses used. Although they may mate well with the bubbly chosen.

Jack wonders if we drink it with a straw. Hey! We know how to enjoy our champers! We gulp it.

And for those who haven't seen it, here is some information on the Philistine Liberation Organization.

The Long and Short of It....Gubmnt bond rates

I've been puzzled for the past few years about why the long-term interest rates on US gubmnt bonds are as low as they are. Given the continuing size of the gubmnt deficit, given the massive entitlement commitments in the form of Social Security and Medicaid, and given the apparent unwillingness of US politicians to do much about these foreseeable budget problems, I see only two possibilities for the future:

1. the US gubmnt has to borrow a bunch more money. But if/as they increase the demand for lendable funds, that will drive up the interest rate. Why are the markets not anticipating that increase now?
2. The gubmnt, combined with Fed support, might try to keep interest rates low for awhile, but eventually won't these attempts eventually lead to gigantic increases in the money supply? If so, then eventually the rate of inflation will increase, leading to an increase in the expected rate of inflation. And, following the Fisher equation, an increase in the expected rate of inflation would lead to an increase in the nominal rate of interest.

I suppose there are other solutions, but those two seem most likely. Both lead to large increases in the interest rate over the next few (?) years.

If I'm right, why haven't interest rates begun to rise, especially for the long-term US debt? It turns out I'm not the only one to ponder this (of course). David Henderson has actually, inter alia, recommended that the US start borrowing more at those low long rates and borrow less using short-term debt. David quotes John Cochrane,

Here's the nightmare scenario: Suppose that four years from now, interest rates rise 5 percent [he means "5 percentage points], i.e. back to normal, and the US has $20 trillion outstanding. Interest costs alone will rise $1 trillion (5% of $20 trillion) - doubling already unsustainable deficits! This is what happened to Italy, Spain, and Portugal. Don't think it can't happen to us. It's even more likely, because fear of inflation - which did not hit them, since they are on the Euro - can hit us.

Of course Cochrane's and Henderson's advice "go long" is directed toward the US gubmnt. Offsetting advice to investors would be to stay short and liquid. I cannot imagine that it would be sensible to lock any money into 30-year US Treasuries which as I type this are paying only 2.76%. 

Alaska, Seward, Russia... and Canada???

Here's something a Russian friend who is studying in Regina showed me recently: 

• Google "Canada sells"
• the first auto-completion will almost surely be "Canada sells Alaska"

Huh??

The US bought Alaska from Russia in 1867 for $7m. It was called "Seward's Folly".

But now skim down through the links that pop up on that search, after the wikipaedia entry. You see evidence that LOTS of people believe Canada sold Alaska to the US. 

Good grief.

But one thing I didn't know: Russia apparently sold Alaska to the US to keep Britain from getting too close to Russia. Russia apparently believed the US would jealously protect its purchase and keep the Brits from using Alaska as a base for attacking Russia across the Bering Strait.

Israel and Gaza what about all the rockets?

Reading the mainstream media, you'd think the Israeli attack on Gaza was largely unprovoked. For instance, the Trono Globe and Mail writes, "Slaying of Hamas commander threatens fragile Middle East peace". Or see what Melanie Phillips has to say about it here.

Fortunately the internet provides other sources which point out that there had been a massive increase in rocket attacks from Gaza to southern Israel over the past few days:

U.S. Condemns Hamas Rocket Fire
Deputy State Department Spokesperson Mark C. Toner said Wednesday: "We strongly condemn the barrage of rocket fire from Gaza into southern Israel, and we regret the death and injury of innocent Israeli and Palestinian civilians caused by the ensuing violence. There is no justification for the violence that Hamas and other terrorist organizations are employing against the people of Israel. We call on those responsible to stop these cowardly acts immediately. We support Israel's right to defend itself, and we encourage Israel to continue to take every effort to avoid civilian casualties."
    "Hamas claims to have the best interests of the Palestinian people at heart, yet it continues to engage in violence that is counterproductive to the Palestinian cause. Attacking Israel on! a near daily basis does nothing to help Palestinians in Gaza or to move the Palestinian people any closer to achieving self-determination."  (U.S. State Department)
    See also State Department Sides with Israel in New Hamas War - Josh Rogin (Foreign Policy)
    See also Prime Minister Netanyahu Speaks with President Obama
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu spoke with President Barack Obama and expressed his deep appreciation for President Obama's support of Israel's right to defend itself. (Prime Minister's Office)
    See also Canada Condemns Hamas, Stands with Israel
"We fundamentally ! believe that Israel has the right to defend itself and its citizens from terrorist threats," Rick Roth, a spokesman for Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister John Baird, said in a statement. "Far too often, the Jewish people find themselves on the front lines in the struggle against terrorism."  (AP-CBC News)

And in the link provided above, Melanie Phillips rightly says,

...let’s get this clear: in the mindset of the BBC and Foreign Office, 120-plus rockets in four days is not an escalation of violence or attempted mass murder; but a targeted strike to kill two individuals who have been organising such attacks, in order to prevent them from organising any more, is an escalation. What kind of hideously warped perspective is this?...

... as far as much of the British media and wretched Foreign Office are concerned, Israel is the only country on earth which is not entitled to defend its people against attack. Does anyone think that if Britain had sustained a rocket barrage of 120 rockets in four days, let alone nearly 800 in a year or more than 5000 in six years, it would not have been at war long ago? But in the British establishment mind, Israel can never be a victim, only an aggressor.

Apparently The Globe has the same warped perspective as the BBC and the British Foreign Office. Pity.

Addendum: So does the NYTimes, which says, essentially, "It's all Israel's fault for not allowing Hamas to continue its rain of rockets."

Ferocious Israeli Assault on Gaza Kills a Leader of Hamas -- Israel hit at least 20 targets in aerial attacks that killed the military commander of Hamas, damaged Israel's fragile relations with Egypt and escalated the risks of a new war in the Middle East.

Fun Toys/Gadgets I Would Never Have Considered...

Every once in awhile Ms. Eclectic comes home with a gadget that makes me roll my eyes. Don't get me wrong, I love gadgets, but sometimes I'm not persuaded they are worth the time, effort, and money. Many times, my eye-rolling is just my being a stodgy old poop.

Here are three that she has bought, I have pooh-poohed, and that I wouldn't want to live without now that we have them:

1. An electric three-hole punch. I couldn't believe one of these things would be worthwhile for a home office, but Ms. Eclectic bought one twenty years ago, and we have both made extensive use of it. If you are ever making manuals or putting together binders full of material, this sort of thing is a hand-saver, a time-saver, and a mental-health saver. We have the Swingline commercial version shown below, but there are others that are cheaper. We don't use it much nowadays, but back when we were both active in many areas, it came it very handy.
2. An automatic jar opener. When I was younger, opening jars was a macho thing to do, but as people age,  we lose muscle tone, maybe even suffer from increasing arthritis, and it gets pretty hard to open jars.  Those things with teeth work pretty well but still require some strength. What really works well and requires virtually no human strength is a battery-powered electric jar opener. They work like a charm and are really fun to use.... really.
3. An electric corkscrew is the latest item Ms. Eclectic purchased and about which I raised my eyebrows more than a bit. We had a fancy-schmancy one that was in a box and required only a push down and a lift up to remove the cork. But, truth be told, I thought it was a nuisance, much preferring the old wing-type corkscrew that is so often denigrated by wine snobs. What's more, we both had agreed that wine with screw-top caps was preferable because they are so much easier to open and then reseal. 
   
   But an electric corkscrew (with a rechargeable battery) changes all that. You put the devise on top of the bottle (after removing the foil, of course), push a button and let 'er rip until the motor stops. Voila! the cork is removed. Push a different button and it ejects the cork. Now we try to buy fewer bottles of wine with screw caps and more with corks, just so we can use this new toy.

. .

Nevertheless, we have never had any of the products described here. And they don't really appeal to me.

Linked-In? Skool Daze? Whatever...

I keep receiving requests from people to connect with them via Linked In or Schooldays or whatever it is. I have no idea why I should or what the value of doing so might be... to them or to me. If I might have been a classmate, okay, I'll connect via Schooldays even if I don't have the foggiest idea of who you might be. But if I get a Linked-in request from someone I don't know, I just ignore it. Either way, I must say, I don't see the point of these versions of social media.

But maybe I'm wrong. Long-time readers of EclectEcon may remember that Scoop tried to encourage me to join Facebook, and I wouldn't do it until he created a Facebook group encouraging me to join and managed to find 50 people to join that group. After several months he, Rondi, and Erin, succeeded and I joined.

At the time I wrote,

Now that I have joined Facebook, I have a sense of alone-ness. Nobody from my high school or undergraduate graduating classes is a member of Facebook. Nobody from my present hometown is a member of Facebook. That says a lot about both my age and about the demographic market for Facebook.

That was over five years ago. Since then things have changed considerably. Many, many more people are FB members.  I have become increasingly active on Facebook. I have many friends there from all over creation based on my having taught and lived in so many places and having been involved in many different aspects of the arts, economics, and blogging. Through Facebook I keep in touch with former students with whom I'd almost surely have lost touch without FB. And I've renewed friendships with grade school and high school friends, as well as a couple of relatives. I love it.

My granddaughter and I had a contest last summer to see who was more addicted to Facebook. She won, but barely. Also, it is clear that posting links and comments on Facebook has replaced some of my blogging.

So maybe there is something to these other groups like Linked-in and SkoolDaze. But if so, what is it??

And does anyone really use Google+?

What Do You Think of Windsor?

This perception probably isn't far off the mark:

Comedian Stephen Colbert has once again taken a swipe at Windsor.

In his latest jab, Colbert calls Windsor “the Earth’s rectum.”

The insult comes in his new book, America Again: Re-becoming the Greatness We Never Weren’t.

In a chapter about green energy, Colbert writes:

“Before we can harness geothermal power, we have to take the planet’s temperature with a geothermometer. And I have no idea where the Earth’s rectum is!”

A footnote at the bottom of the page simply reads “Windsor, Canada.”

I don't know. I might have said "York University."

Calm and Peace

I am definitely saving this link. Very relaxing! Just close your eyes and do nothing for two minutes.

Hope and Change? Let's All Hope Melanie Phillips is Wrong

Melanie Phillips, writing after the US elections, said,

It is said that, with likely gridlock in Congress over domestic issues, Obama will concentrate on foreign policy. We should all shudder. So far, Obama has empowered Iran to destabilise the region; supported Islamist takeovers in Egypt and Libya; is backing al Qaeda affiliates in Syria; refused to come to the aid of Americans being attacked by al Qaeda in Benghazi as a result of which four American officials were murdered; and hung Israel out to dry against its genocidal Palestinian attackers. ....

Obama’s agenda has been crystal clear from the get-go: to increase the power of the state over the citizen at home, and to neutralise American power abroad. Four more years of this and he’ll almost certainly have succeeded.  The impact upon western security could be cataclysmic.

Britain and the Europeans love Obama because they think he will end American exceptionalism and turn the US into a pale shadow of themselves. What they don’t realise is that, all but lobotomised by consumerist rights, state dependency, victim culture, sentimentality, post-religion, post-nationalism and post-Holocaust and Empire guilt, Britain and Europe are themselves fast going down the civilisational tubes. (emphasis added)

If you want to see some more serious causes for concern, read the whole thing.

The Hi-Res Version

Last week I posted a photo advertising the upcoming concerts of Encore...the Concert Band. Unfortunately that photo was super low resolution. Here's a hi-res version (thanks, Jordana!). This one also shows the Roughrider logo over the bell of my green trumpet that I use in the Saskatchewan Roughrider Pep Band.

Six Steps to Inoculate Canada's Economy from the Likely Economic Problems that Will Soon Face the US

Ezra Levant recently wrote this article. Here I'm reproducing the important points he makes about Canada's economy. The Canadian economy is strong, partly because of its resource base, partly because of its comparatively low gubmnt debt and low gubmnt deficits, and partly because of the stability it provides for entrepreneurial decision-making. 

Note that Levant is only pointing out possible areas where private investors might pursue economic activity. He is NOT saying the gubmnt should invest in those areas; he is NOT saying the gubmnt should provide incentives in those areas. He is saying the gubmnt SHOULD implement policies that facilitate private decisions and private risk-taking. Unfortunately, though, that doesn't carry over to oil pipelines completely, and he still talks about oil as if "we" own it, whatever that means; that's dicey (see his point 6).

What should Canada do to protect ourselves from America’s continuing economic decline? Here are eight things:

1. Pay down Canada’s government debt. The U.S. is $16 trillion in debt, and is racking up another trillion a year. Its credit rating has been downgraded, and surely will be again. That means interest rates will rise and borrowing will be more expensive. It’s a vicious circle. We’ve got to get out of that whirlpool ourselves. Our deficit is on track to be eliminated by next year. We’ve got to keep running a surplus, and retire our debt.

2. Obama ran a class warfare campaign to soak the rich. Too bad, because the rich are the ones starting businesses and paying the lion’s share of taxes. More practically, as both John F. Kennedy and Ronald Reagan proved, lower tax rates actually increase tax revenues, as economic activity booms. Canada already has lower corporate tax rates than America. We need to keep taxes low to stimulate economic activity.

3. Low taxes could also start a northward “brain drain.” Let’s recruit the best and brightest from America to immigrate to Canada. Immigration Minister Jason Kenney recently returned from a similar trip to Ireland. Why not add on new recruiting trips to Silicon Valley, the Boston-area universities, New York and other pools of talent who might prefer our stronger economy and quality of life?

4. As a country of just 34 million people, we need more human capital. But we need more financial capital, too. Just to develop our oilsands could require $100 billion — more than Canadians could invest. What a perfect time to steer foreign investors away from riskier

U.S. assets and into Canada. We need to immediately modernize our foreign investment review rules, to avoid the confusion and uncertainty arising from our delays of $21 billion in proposed Petronas and CNOOC investments.

5. We need trade agreements with those parts of the world that are actually growing — especially Asia. The Conservatives are currently negotiating more trade treaties than ever before. Some, like with Panama, are small. Some, like with China, are rudimentary. But a few billion here and there starts to add up — and we need it all to offset our dependence on the U.S.

6. One of our biggest exports to the U.S. is oil — about 2.2 million barrels a day. But there are two problems with that: Because all of our oil is sold to the U.S., our oil sells for $25 per barrel less than if we could sell it to other customers at world prices. And there’s another risk: In his election night speech, Obama talked about “global warming” again — signaling that he may permanently block the Keystone XL pipeline to the U.S., or add a new carbon tax, or both.

That means it’s more important than ever to build new pipelines to the Pacific — not just the proposed Northern Gateway Pipeline, but the doubling of the existing Transmountain pipeline that already goes to Vancouver.

 

Fun to Contemplate

Taking a cat to work on my shoulder.... while teaching? while acting? while conducting an orchestra? while sportscasting? While greeting people at WalMart? While playing in the Roughrider Pep Band? [h/t Joshua]

If you like classical music....

I like classical music as background music... almost like muzak. When I listen to it as background music, I tend to prefer baroque music. But other times I like romantic or even 20th century music, too. FB friend Jason Clemens recently pointed me to the KDFC website, where you can listen to music, and it seems pretty good quality streaming. I'm sure there are many other sites that provide classical music, too, but I thought I'd pass this along especially to my friends who miss what CBC-FM used to be. 

Also, if you still like and use CDs or will use Amazon's cloud for music, you might want to consider their classic albums (not just classical music; pointer from Joshua). There are some amazingly low prices there.

. . . .

The Political Economy of Co-dependence and Guilt

Noting that 8 of the 10 richest counties in the US voted for Obama, Gary North wrote,

There is a deal between the poorest inner cities and the rich, who have no contact with people who live in the inner cities. The rich vote to assuage their guilt, and the poor take the trickle-down welfare from Washington. It’s the politics of co-dependence.

His explanation, which may have a grain of truth judging from my own experiences both as a student and as a prof, is

The reality is this: rich parents buy expensive college educations for their children. Colleges are run by political liberals. The outlook of the professors is adopted by students.

My own take is that many (most?) well-to-do people actually do care about the poor. Sometimes they disagree vehemently about which poor they care about (and too often ignore future generations) or how to go about caring for them.

Hey! That's My Trumpet She's Playing!

Last summer a few of us were asked to take part in a series of photo shoots for Encore...the Concert Band (in which I play French horn). Here is a photo from that shoot, enlarged and in poor resolution,  unfortunately. 

Yes that's me in the upper right, playing my E-flat alto horn. And see that green trumpet? That's mine, too. I play it in the Saskatchewan Roughriders Pep Band.

Encore, the Concert Band is probably the best band I've ever played in. Most of the members are music teachers or have an immense music background or are just plain highly talented. (I play 9th-chair horn out of nine). Our concerts are on Sunday afternoons in the auditorium at Central Secondary School. The next ones will be on:

• December 2nd, 2012
• February 17th, 2013
• April 21st, 2013
• June 2nd, 2013

More information about the band, including details about our upcoming concerts, is here.

Toronto Restaurant/Buffet Bleg

The Saskatchewan Roughrider Pep Band will be in Toronto during Grey Cup (roughly Nov 22 - 26 for the full band; some of us will be arriving on the 20th). There will be about 40 of us and we are looking for places where we can eat somewhat healthily and fairly inexpensively. We need something that will cater to fairly standard tastes, so we won't be going to any buffets that don't have a reasonable selection for everyone. If you have any suggestions, please send them to me. 

To give you an idea of what we're considering, one is Dangerous Dan's (hamburger/diner type place that receives rave reviews) if they can accommodate us. Another is the Spaghetti Factory (murder for my super-low-carb diet, but I'm sure I can adapt). We are staying downtown, but we will have a coach at our disposal, so travel for 30-45 minutes is not out of the question.

Any and all suggestions in these prices ranges are welcome. Thanks.

Yes, I'm a member of the Saskatchewan Roughriders Pep band:

No Paywalls at Major Media for the Election

I hope to avoid most of this nonsense, but if you're interested, here are the links, courtesy of MA:

Paywalls Dropped for Election at Wall St. Journal, NY Times, National Journal, UK Times
Tuesday, November 6, 2012 | 

Several news sites have temporarily dropped their subscription paywalls for election day and night.

The New York Times will be free from 6 p.m. EST tonight until 6 p.m. EST Wednesday.

The Wall Street Journal will be free from 5 p.m. EST today until 5 p.m. EST Wednesday.

The National Journal is free today and tomorrow, the cut off time has not been determined.

The UK Times is free today, for an unknown time period.

 

Price Gouging is Good

One of my former students (and a current FB friend) reminded me that I used to require this article by Karen Sellick in my intro economics courses. He also pointed me to this article by Art Carden which makes similar arguments.

Here's the gist of the defence that most economists make of price gouging:

• Firms that price gouge may lose goodwill, so jacking up prices may not be a wise long-term strategy for many firms.
• To the extent that prices rise during disasters, they encourage suppliers to ship things in from greater distances (with the higher prices signalling that increased transportation and transaction costs can be covered).
• To the extent that prices rise during disasters, they encourage buyers to cut back, to make do.
• To the extent that people expect prices might rise during disasters, that expectation encourages buyers and sellers to maintain larger precautionary inventories. 
• Price gouging eliminates black markets, massive lineups, and the attendant illegal and anti-social behaviours.

Bearing Costs of Living in Risky AreasPeople Respond to Incentives

The Washington Post had a lengthy piece today on measures various people are proposing to prevent such massive flooding as happened in Galveston with Hurricane Ike or as happened along the East Coast with Hurricane Sandy. (link here). 

You know what I liked about the article?

It talked about what cities, states, and regions are contemplating. The article does not include any quotes (that I saw) saying the protective measures are so costly that the Federal gubmnt will have to help out.

There is no reason to ask/require people in Kansas to help pay for these barriers or other measures (just as there is no reason to ask/require New Yorkers to pay to help with tornado relief in Kansas). 

If people want to live in nice, low-lying areas near the shore [yes, Galveston is very nice most of the time!] they should be willing to pay the high taxes required to cover the costs of protection; failing that, they should be willing to pay the exorbitantly high insurance premiums (assuming they could even buy flood insurance) to cover their losses. 

But when others bear the costs of such mega-project protection schemes, the major economic effect is to subsidize the people who own land (and buildings) in the at-risk areas. The result is to induce more people to live in those areas.

After all, "people respond to incentives."

OCD? Autistic? Aspey? or just inquisitive and detail conscious?

Several weeks ago, a Facebook friend mentioned this test, which seems to indicate a person's proclivity toward details and systematizing quotient (whatever that is). He had scored 56 and noted that the designers of the test report that people who are high-functioning autistics or who have aspergers syndrome are quite likely to score in the 40s or 50s or higher on the test. 

When I took the test, I scored 48. I retook it, emphasizing my more extreme tendencies, and scored 55. Then I retook it, de-emphasizing them and scored 39. So I figure the score of 48 is probably about right for me. The average for men is about 36 and for women is about 29. Friends scored all over the place, with my son and Jack scoring in the mid-20s, a PR friend in the 40s, an artist friend in the 20s and another friend in the teens. Here is a graph of the results of people who have taken the test:

The test seems more to focus on attention to detail and what I think of as curiosity or zest for learning. I certainly am not autistic and do not have aspergers syndrome; and I never really thought of myself as very obsessive or compulsive (maybe a bit, but not very.... really).

The same site has several other tests, including one which might be more indicative of whether a person is a high-functioning autistic or aspey. My results:

Your score: 22
0 - 10 = low
11 - 22 = average (most women score about 15 and most men score about 17) [EE: huh? see below]
23 - 31 = above average
32 - 50 is very high (most people with Asperger Syndrome or high-functioning autism score about 35)
50 is maximum

and here is a graph of the results for everyone who has taken that test:

As you can see, my score of 22 on this test is slightly below the male average and slightly above the female average. 

So why the high score on the first test? I think it has something to do with some (not all) aspects of my life in which I'm curious about things or in which I pay attention to details. Some people have said that when I manage something I tend to micro-manage; and yet in other aspects I seem almost oblivious to details. 

In the end, the tests were interesting to take and to discuss with friends, but they didn't really tell me much about myself that I didn't already know.

On Death and Dying

The other night, Ms. Eclectic and I were speculating about how long we expect to live. She's a cancer survivor, and both my parents died of heart disease; so we figured we'd both probably be below average. 

The sudden death of my friend, Alan Adamson, caused me to think more than just idly about the question. So I took this test. The results indicate I might live a little longer than I expected, but then the 50% confidence interval spans a tonne of years, too. Ms. Eclectic had similar results, so we are guessing we still have quite a few years together ahead of us. My results:

Life Expectancy Results

Life Expectancy: 88.47 years
Lower Quartile: 81.08 years (75% chance you will live longer than this)
Median Lifetime: 88.59 years (50% chance you will live longer than this)
Upper Quartile: 95.60 years (25% chance you will live longer than this)

Another life expectancy calculator, which insists on registration (and hence which seems likely to be more commercial) is this one. Unfortunately, it provides only a point estimate instead of a range, but it says I'll live 'til I'm 95. I took it a second time, giving slightly different answers, and it tells me I'll live to the age of 87. And Jack sent this one, which says I'll live until I'm 83.

With results like these, we'd better reorganize our spending to make our pension savings last a bit longer. And if I'm going to live that long, I sure hope low-cost, effective joint and muscle care/repair become available soon!

From a different perspective, my friend Jack says that at our age we must accept the fact that there is a non-negligible probability we can go at any time. I understand that, objectively. But I'm having so much fun, I'm really not ready to go yet.

Alan Adamson

As we age, death makes increasingly frequent visits. The most recent death to affect me was of Alan Adamson, a good friend and co-blogger.

We met through blogging. I had posted some extreme remarks about some outrageous event being hosted in the Faculty of Arts at UWO; his wife saw my posting, and she sent it on to him for his amusement. He started following my blog and making the odd comment. From there we struck up a correspondence and began our blog about curling before we had ever met each other. 

The curling blog was fun for a few years. Even more fun was working together to cover the Scott Tournament of Hearts when it was in London, including doing play-by-play of one of the morning draws on the radio. Alan was a thoughtful, fun-loving guy. You put those two characteristics together, and you have a person who is fun and interesting to be around. 

We continued our curling reporting when the Brier was held in London in 2011, and then at the World Championships out in Regina that same year. 

Alan had been a math prof at Waterloo, but left academia to work for IBM. He enjoyed teaching but didn't enjoy the meaningless research that was expected of him. After many years at IBM, he retired, but was still active in ongoing industry standard-setting conferences.

Through Alan, we met his sister, Rondi, and his wife Melitta. Rondi and I have continued to correspond off and on, and we always enjoyed getting together with Alan and Melitta once or twice a year. 

Alan was younger than me. His sudden death has stunned and saddened me.