EclectEcon

Global Warming: It is NOT Settled Science

Long-time readers of EclectEcon know that I am what is called a Global-Warming Skeptic. Check the links here, for example.

I'm not a denier; I'm just not sure. For example, when I look at how far the Athabasca Glacier has receded, it is impossible to deny that at in some parts of the world average temperatures seem to have risen. 

At the same time, I know there are parts of the world where ice continues to build up. And the year-to-year variation in temperatures is so big that discerning longer-term trends and cycles is quite difficult (sounds like economics!). Furthermore, the temperature evidence for so many years was being taken from weather stations that were located near expanding cities where temperatures tend to be higher even if global temperatures are not rising.

But anytime I would express skepticism, or anytime I would suggest maybe the costs due to global warming might be much less than the costs of trying to prevent it, I'd be met with assertions that "it is settled science."

It isn't, as this survey of earth scientists reveals [h/t Jack].

Only 36 percent of geoscientists and engineers believe that humans are creating a global warming crisis, according to a survey reported in the peer-reviewed Organization Studies. By contrast, a strong majority of the 1,077 respondents believe that nature is the primary cause of recent global warming and/or that future global warming will not be a very serious problem.

The survey results show geoscientists (also known as earth scientists) and engineers hold similar views as meteorologists. Two recent surveys of meteorologists (summarized here and here) revealed similar skepticism of alarmist global warming claims.

And people claim that economists can't agree on anything! hunh.

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Leicester, again

Tonight are the last two performances of Marlowe's Edward II. It's been a fun ride with a wacky cast, many of whom I've worked with before. Too bad it has to end.

Here's the latest version of Leicester. Many of the other characters in the show have some colour in their hair, so it seems appropriate that Leicester would, too. Who knows: maybe tonight he'll have ALL blue hair. 8-)

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"Fawn Not on Me, French Trumpet"

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Edward II

Is Chuck Hagel an Anti-Semite?

Probably. My internet correspondent MA sent me this link. Here is an excerpt:

[T]o my knowledge, no one has ever argued that anyone who criticizes Israel, for its foreign policies or otherwise, is an anti-Semite. Similarly, no one argues that anyone who criticizes the government of Poland, say, must be bigoted against Poles.

This red herring is used to obscure what really does happen: there are a considerable number of people, of whom Hagel appears to be one, who are obsessed with Israel, and not in a good way. Against all evidence, they assert that Israel’s accommodating the Palestinians is the key to peace in the entire Middle Eastern region if not the whole Arab world. History tells us that the supposed centrality of Israeli-Palestinian relations to everything that goes on within 2,000 miles is a fantasy, yet the fantasy persists in men like Chuck Hagel. If only Israel would yield to the Palestinians, then everything else would fall into place.

This obsession with Israel is usually combined with a hyper-critical attitude toward its conduct. The Tutus can slaughter a million Hutsis–or was it the other way around?–and hardly anyone appears to care. If Chuck Hagel ever commented on that particular bloodbath, or if he was especially bothered when a million people were killed in the Iran-Iraq war, I never heard about it. But let Israel defend itself against thousands of rocket attacks and assorted other terrorist threats, and let an Israeli bomb fall near a school because that’s where the terrorists locate their rocket launchers, and my Lord! You would think the world is coming to an end. This strange imbalance, which we see in people like Chuck Hagel, must have a cause somewhere.

 

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"Fawn Not on Me, French Trumpet"

"Fawn not on me, French trumpet," is one of our favourite lines in Edward II by Christoper Marlowe. Of course that's not the real line, but all of us backstage pretend it is. The correct line is, "Fawn not on me, French strumpet."

But of course I had to find out just what a French trumpet might be. Here is one answer, having to do with organ stops:

French Trumpet English

While Irwin lists this name as simply a synonym for Trompette, a few sources treat it more specifically. Skinner writes:

a reed of normal scale having parallel or untapered shallots with full-length openings developing brilliance in the tone. The French Trumpet is essentially a low-pressure reed, and its quality is the result of efforts to produce power with a light wind, such as could be developed with a bellows operated by hand or foot power. The tone is not well suited to small, unresonant buildings, but in large buildings with good acoustics will provide a striking brilliance to the Swell. The 16' French Trumpet on a 5 inch wind, makes an ideal double reed for the Swell organ, free from the usual heavy thickness of the conventional double reed. A fine example of this reed will be found in Trinity Church, Boston [Massachusetts, USA].

Regarding the French Trumpet of the theatre organ, Strony says:

This stop appeared on instruments by many builders. There were as many different results. Some examples are very similar in color to a Wurlitzer Brass Trumpet. Indeed, the pipes are flared similarly to the Brass Trumpet. Other examples breathe fire, and lean more toward the English Post Horn.

Al Sefl reports that this stop appeared on Wurlitzer's “Gaumont special” organs going to the United Kingdom, and had a more traditional construction and scaling than other Wurlitzer trumpets. Why they chose to label the rank “French” is not completely understood, as this same rank was named simply “Trumpet” on their church and home installations in the USA.

See also Brass Trumpet, Style D Trumpet.

Examples

Osiris contains 19 examples.

French Trumpet 8', Swell; Immanuel Presbyterian Church, Los-Angeles, California, USA; Skinner 1928.

French Trumpet 8', Swell; Princeton University Chapel, Princeton, New Jersey, USA; Skinner 1927.

French Trumpet; Gaumont State Theatre, Kilburn, London, England; Wurlitzer 1937.

Bibliography

Irwin[1]: Trompette. Skinner[1]: XII French Trumpet. Strony[1]: French Trumpet. Private correspondence.  

 

By the way, here are some more photos of me in my two quite minor roles in the play (which runs Feb 13 - 16, 2013 at The Arts Project, $15) As Mortimer, the Elder:
and as the Earl of Leicester:

Edward II

I am presently appearing in Christopher Marlowe's Edward II, at The Arts Project in London, Ontario. I have two fairly minor (length-wise) roles: Mortimer, the Elder, and The Earl of Leicester. Here are photos of me as I appear in each role:

Mortimer, the Elder:

After the first act, Mortimer Sr. goes off to fight the Scots and doesn't appear again.

Near the end of the fourth act and into the fifth act, I appear as the Earl of Leicester:

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Happy Valentine's Day

I know this is a day or two early, but this past weekend when we looked at the weather forecast, my son and granddaughter and I decided we'd better express our greetings then, knowing full well they'd be washed away by the rain and warm weather by Thursday.

I Smell Shortages, Lineups, Hoarding, Etc.

News like this is so depressing. Why won't people learn from experience (if not from economists)?

A group representing two-thirds of Argentina's supermarkets agreed to keep prices steady until the first of April.

The move comes days after the International Monetary Fund (IMF) censured Argentina for issuing inaccurate economic data.

The government says inflation is below 11% but economists say it is double.

Analysts have accused Argentina specifically of understating the rate of inflation since 2007 in order to keep interest rate payments on its debt low, and to flatter the political regime.

Some economists think the annual inflation rate could rise as high as 30% this year.

The supermarket agreement covers every item in all of the nation's largest chains.

They include Walmart, Carrefour, Coto, Jumbo and Disco.

Argentina's commerce ministry has asked consumers to monitor prices in the chains.

Next up: watch for cries about dirty speculators, calls to shoot hoarders, and extensive allegations about black markets and cronyism. There's a perfect model in Venezuela.

And seriously, the only way to deal with rampant inflation is to reduce the rate of growth of the money supply. If the gubmnt is printing money to fund its deficits, then deficit reduction will be necessary too.

Update: For more see this from Forbes.

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Quite Frankly, I Prefer "Godfather of the Ban-the-Penny Movement"

Former journalism student from many decades ago, Hank Daniszewski, writes in the Freeps, [h/t Joe]

THE PENNY PROSECUTOR

Pulling the plug on the penny can’t come soon enough for John Palmer, a retired economics professor in London who’s long been one of the nation’s leading proponents for abolishing the penny. He even appeared before a Senate committee studying the issue.

Besides its high production cost, Palmer argues pennies have long been useless as currency and are a nuisance for retailers and consumers.

“I’m surprised merchants have not been making more changes in anticipation. I see more ‘penny cups,’ but merchants have not started rounding out prices,” said Palmer.

He said Canada should soon take the next step and eliminate the five-cent coin.

“Some people will feel nostalgic, but I don’t think most of us will miss the penny much.” said Palmer.

"The Penny Prosecutor"????

Note: when production AND distribution costs are included, it cost up near about four cents per penny to produce and distribute the coin. Let's celebrate!