EclectEcon

Your Raisins or Your Life: An Unconstitutional "Taking" by the USDA

The US Department of Agriculture [USDA] constantly promotes cartels, higher prices for food, and restrictions on entry into the production of many crops. Their policies tend to hurt the poor more and help rich agri-businesses.

Raisins appear to be a good example. [via RalphK]

Last week the Supreme Court announced it would revisit the important case of Horne v. USDA. The case... centers on a USDA program that forces those who traffic in raisins (“handlers,” in USDA raisin parlance) to turn over cash or a significant part of their crop—sometimes almost fifty percent—to the USDA without compensation.

In Horne, the eponymous family, which markets raisins, sued the USDA to force the agency to compensate them if the USDA forced them (along with raisin handlers around the country) to turn over cash or almost half their raisin crop to the agency in return for the purported privilege of handling raisins. ...

As the Ninth Circuit puts it, the Hornes argue the USDA “works a constitutional taking by depriving raisin producers of their personal property, the diverted raisins, without just compensation."

That’s exactly what the USDA’s raisin marketing program does.

I'm sure there's more to it. But this surface appraisal of the case should be enough to raise eyebrows about what the USDA is doing, under guise of protecting consumers and entrenched interests, to maintain barriers to entry into raisin production and to keep prices high for nutritious snacks.

More on Football Deflation

Whatever happened with the footballs in the Colts-Economists* game, the explanation is far from clear. From the NYTimes:

...[S]ome academic and research physicists now concede that they made a crucial error in their initial calculations, using an equation called the ideal gas law.When that error is corrected, the amount of deflation predicted in moving from room temperature to a 50-degree field is roughly doubled.

When the football controversy arose, a number of physicists cited the ideal gas law, which many of them taught in introductory courses. But applying the equation to real situations can be surprisingly deceptive. When a gauge indicates that the ball contains 12.5 p.s.i. — the minimum allowed by the N.F.L. — the actual pressure is more than twice that amount because the surrounding pressure of the atmosphere must be considered. [EE Digression: so much for the complaint about economists' misusing models with unrealistic assumptions; it happens everywhere and this example cries out for more caution in all fields.]

This roughly doubles how much a dip in temperature can lower the pressure. During a phone conversation, even Tegmark, the M.I.T. professor, initially used the lower value until recognizing the mistake. “I stand corrected,” he said...

There are still questions about why the Colts balls were NOT deflated. But the explanations offered in this article at least raise some important questions about whether the Economists cheated.

Let me re-emphasize the methodological point made in my above digression: We all use unrealistic assumptions to simplify analysis, no matter what field we are in. Understanding when which assumptions matter is part of the sophistication required for using the models.

*Note: I refer to the New England football team as "The Economists" because at one time a number of years ago, their coach, Bill Belichick, said that having been an economics major had helped him understand resource allocation and constrained choice better as coach.

Spirographic-Type Fun

It's not really an illusion as the title might imply, but it is fun geometry:

 

Interval Estimates, Probabilities, and Weather Forecasts:why we are doomed to receive continued storm porn

Yup, the storm going up the east coast of North America moved slightly to the east with the result that many areas received considerably less snow than the media warned might happen. See this, for example. People made plans and purchases, etc. that they wouldn't have made if they'd had a better idea what would happen.

The problem is twofold:Point estimates instead of interval estimates, and loss-minimization tactics.

Point estimates vs interval estimates:

We all know that weather models are imperfect. But the media don't want to take the time to say (as an example for the recent storm) "There's a 15% chance of 12" of snow, a 50% chance of 10", a 30% chance of 6", and a 5% chance of only 2" over the next 24 hours, depending on which way the major air masses drift." And I really wonder if many listeners/viewers would want that much detail. I have lots of friends who would respond, "Yah, yah, so what's gonna happen?"

However, the reports could present graphs of probability density functions showing the probabilities of expected precipitation, expected temperatures, etc. And given that different forecasting models spit out different probability density functions, it might even be useful to more than a few of us stat-type geeks to see a graphic showing the probability density functions from several different models.

Essentially this distinction was one of the errors made by forecasters in their submissions of information to the media and by the media in their presentations to the public. [see this, from WaPo]

When a forecast is so sensitive to small changes (eastern Long Island, not far away, received 30-plus inches), it is imperative to loudly convey the reality that small changes could have profound effects on what actually happens. ...

But the general lack of information provided about the forecast uncertainty is a major disappointment considering both the state of weather forecasting and the efforts some have made to improve how we communicate the forecast.

For many years, the need to express forecast confidence and communicate different scenarios during complex, high-stakes forecast events has been discussed and stressed in the weather community.

And that brings up the second problem,

Loss-minimization Tactics

Imagine if the weather services and the media had indeed presented interval estimates and probability density functions about the east coast snow storm, something like what I suggest above. Imagine further that New York City had received an unanticipated heavy snowfall of, say 18" [following the numbers used in the above example, this would have had probably only 2% probability attached to it.]. Imagine the outrage if the public and public officials hadn't been prepared. And especially if they hadn't been prepared for bad outcomes.

So what happens is that weather services shade their forecasts to allow for "what's the worst that might happen?" If they get it wrong on the extreme side, that imposes far lower costs and losses on the public (and hence on themselves) than if they don't place enough emphasis on the extreme outcomes. From the CBC link at the top of this post,

Kimbell said meteorologists at Environment Canada have the leeway to err on the side of caution, particularly when issuing warnings when public safety is at stake. 

"It's better to say there is going to be a bad storm and save lives than to minimize it and be wrong on the other side and actually it's worse and the impacts are severe," he said....

"I would rather, if there is a lean one way or another, lean towards safety because I have seen the consequences the other way and it gets very frightening very quickly," said New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo. 

[CBC meteorologist] Scotland said forecasters cannot always err on the side of caution, because if they do people may start to take warnings of dangerous conditions less seriously in the future.

Exactly. Most of us are familiar with "The Little Boy Who Cried Wolf".

At the same time, exacerbating the problem, the  media love "Storm porn" [see here and here]. And because of this tendency within the media, a couple of years ago I really tore into The Weather Network (aka the Storm Porn Channel):

Open Challenge to The Weather Network
aka "the Storm-Porn Channel"

You were forecasting 30-40 cms of snow in this storm for the Southwestern Ontario corridor. And some of your announcers couldn't restrain themselves, saying (with drool running down their chins), ".... and it could be more in some areas." How much did those areas actually receive? 

I understand that you never, never want to be accused of under-forecasting the seriousness of a storm, but over-forecasting the seriousness of storms consistently means that people develop an immunity to your warnings. 

Can you at least start providing us with decent confidence intervals instead of only dire warnings? Please? Do you have any announcers who dare to say, "... but it might be quite a bit less, too..."?

Addendum: Keep in mind that the storm did, indeed, drop tonnes and meters of snow on some places on Long Island and in New England.That it did not leave so much snow in New York City and that that is what became the major news story reflects the NYC-bias of the major media.

Never Forget

“Oh God, oh God,” he said, unable to control a rush of tears. “This is where they died. This is where they took them from us. I can see it. I can see it! Why? Because we were Jewish? I still don’t get it. I still don’t get the hate.”

From the Washington Post's article about Auschwitz.

The Ongoing World of Cyber Attacks

I set this website going a couple of days ago and have let the programme run since then. It shows the number of attempted cyber attacks (of sorts) by source of the attack, by target of the attack, etc. [via Jack]

Here is a screen shot of what I had seen after a couple of days (the data are cumulative).

The primary source of the attacks is China. North Korea doesn't even make the top ten. The primary target is the US.

Some thoughts:

• One of the big points made by those of us who study the economics of crime is that the major economic inefficiency resulting from crime is that there are so many scarce resources devoted to perpetrating and protecting from criminal activity. How many scarce resources devoted to cyber attacks could be used for something more productive? How many scarce resources devoted to protecting individuals and organizations from cyber attacks could be used for something more productive?
• But that first point must be soaked in reality: so long as individuals and organizations perceive that there might be gains from redistributing wealth from others to themselves via cyber  crime, then those inefficiencies will persist.
• It makes sense that sites in the US are the major targets. That's where much of the top economic activity is carried out electronically and where the biggest gains can be sought by cyber criminals.
• What the heck is going on St. Louis and Kirksville, Missouri to draw so many cyber attacks to those areas?

Gubmnt and Helping the Poor

Several of my Facebook friends have posted the picture below showing Jimmy Carter along with the quote, "If you don't want your tax dollars to help the poor, then stop saying you want a country based on Christian values, because you don't."

That's utter nonsense.  I would much rather my dollars help the poor through private agencies rather than through gubmnt agencies, bureaucracies, and red tape. In fact, sometimes I wonder if the incentives created by many gubmnt programmes don't often exacerbate the problems of poverty.

Let's get this straight: saying you care about the poor and want to help them does NOT justify bigger gubmnt. For those who question this assertion, I refer you to Bleeding Heart Libertarians, a blog by libertarians who definitely care about helping the poor but who argue quite effectively that many, many gubmnt programmes are not the way to help the poor.

Revealed Preferences and Priorities

We went shopping yesterday.

We spent about $150 at the grocery store, including buying 7 cartons of pop and two plants.

Then we went to the liquor store, where we spent over $450.

That probably reveals a great deal about our priorities.

 

Improved Standards of Living: Increased Life Expectancies

As a followup to my recent post about how standards of living have dramatically improved over the past few decades (despite what some people might try to tell you), here are some very interesting data about life expectancies of various age groups in various countries grouped by country income [via JR, my favourite drug dealer]:

Over the 40-year time span for which these data were collected, death rates fell for every age group in every country grouping, regardless of their income levels.

Surely improved health care and increased life expectancy are signs of a generally improved standard of living, and these results hold (in general) throughout the world for high- and low-income nations alike.

30 Problems Facing Canadians

I saw this back in August when it first came out, and I see it's making the rounds again on Facebook. Here's the list, but I'm adding my own comments and observations:

1. People asking you to say ‘aboot ‘ for them.

I have never had this happen to me, but maybe that's because I moved here from the US over 40 years ago. However, for my non-Canadian friends, let me add that it seems to me most Canadians do NOT say "aboot" instead of "about". Many say something that seems like a cross between "a-boat" and "aboot" though.

2. Having roads in our potholes.

We have a seriously frequent freeze-thaw-freeze-thaw series of cycles, and they do, indeed play havoc with the streets.

3. Accidentally setting your keyboard to French and not realizing for the longest time.

Been there. Done that.

4. When I Travel Abroad, Locals Think I’m American.

Maybe that's because I am/was, originally from the US. I make sure I have a Canadian flag on my shoulder bag, and I often have one on my jacket as well. But I think this is a less pressing situation now than it was back during the Vietnam war.

5. When I Type ‘?,’ It Comes Out As ‘É’

Crap! Yes, and on a previous computer it seemed to happen all the frickn time!

6. Constantly getting duds when it’s roll up the rim season.

This is reference to the Tim Hortons "lottery". For my response, see this.

7. Uses Canadian Spelling… Gets Corrected By U.S. Spell-Checker.

Happens all the time. I try to set the spell-checker for UK-Canadian, but that's rarely an option. And of course I bugger things up with my self-amused spellings like Vancouvre, sobre, and eagre.

8. Asks For A Double-Double… U.S. Cashier Doesn’t Understand.

Never happens to me. I don't drink coffee with double sugar, double cream, and I rarely order coffee in the US.

9. Paid $1.98 Charge With A Toonie… Got No Change.

I'm proud of this! We got rid of the flippn penny, and I played a role in its demise! See the articles here. btw, a toonie is a two-dollar Canadian coin.

10. Shipping within the US: free. Shipping internationally: 3 BILLION DOLLARS.

No foolin'! I can't wait for even freer trade between the two countries.

11. Panicking at the scent of burnt toast.

What's this about? All I can think of is the number of times smoke alarms have gone off because of burnt toast. But actually I think it has to do with Wilder Penfield.

12. Just Got Netflix… U.S. Selection Is WAY Better.

... but there are ways around this problem, according to several friends.

13. If you pronounce the second ‘t’ in Toronto, you obviously don’t live in Toronto.

After living in Canada for a year, I started spelling it "Trono". It's pronounced TRAH-nah.

14. Tim Horton’s withdrawel while abroad.

I guess some Canadians have this. I don't much care what coffee I drink, though, so this doesn't affect me at all.

15. Wearing heavy-duty winter boots to school and looking like a hoser all day.

Yeah, or wearing them to the office. But I have what I call my "studly" boots, too.

16. 3 second milk ads that leave you wondering what just happened.

They went by so fast, I can barely remember them.

17. Being asked if you ski to work.

Never happened, not even in jest. But there were times when I probably should have skied to work or even to the store or the lunch counter.

18. Your international friends and family visit the other side of Canada but still expect to see you.

Yup. Three related points:

• Someone once asked me, "How big a city is Canada?
• I was once at an event in Kansas where they gave a prize for someone who had come the farthest to the event. They insisted on giving me the prize, even though someone was there from Hawaii.
• A UK friend who knows the geography of Canada very well took the train across Canada from Vancouvre just to visit us. In this case, she knew what she was doing and relished it.

19. Wildly overestimating the price with tax, just to be safe.

Yup again. We have a non-hidden value-added tax in Ontario of 13% on most purchases. So when something is priced at $60, my tendency is to guess that's about $70-$75. That way I'm not too shocked or disappointed with the final bill.

20. Travelling to England means that half of your luggage is filled with plug adapters.

I did this the first year I taught at the Badr International Studies Centre in Herstmonceux, England. I carried only a few after that, but I still had some for the continent, too, since their outlets were different. Lord bless computers that don't seem to care what the power source is!

21. Ooh, 15 cents. That’s really helpful Canadian Tire.

The history here is that Canadian Tire (a major retailer in Canada) gives out "Canadian Tire money" [i.e. loyalty programme rewards] with cash purchases. Lots of people have lots of 4-cent or whatever Canadian Tire "dollars" floating around. I don't. I use their Mastercard when I shop at Canadian Tire, and that keeps track of my Canadian Tire dollars for me. When asked if I want to use the money, my response is usually, "Yes, I don't want to die without using it." Well, I say that to myself anyway.

22. “I have a friend named ______ in Vancouver, do you know them?”

I have never heard this, but it reminds me of something BenS used to say: "Oh, you're John Palmer from London, Ontario.... are you by any chance related to John Jones from there?" It was his bizarre sense of humour.

23. Salt stains on everything in the winter.

Good grief, yes! I experienced this in my youth in Michigan, but it is really serious  here.

24. Fahrenheit is a confusing and impenetrable mystery.

Not for me. I was raised on Fahrenheit, and Canada didn't switch to Celsius until the mid-1970s. I have slowly adapted to Celsius. But as regular readers of EclectEcon know, I frequently assert that C means Canadian, F means Foreign.

25. Need to fake an American zip code because there isn’t a postal code box.

Been there. Done that. Sworn about it.

26. “And remember class, it must be by a Canadian.”

I don't recall ever having insisted on this. However, I sort of did this the one term that I taught Canadian Economic History.

27. The air hurts my face. Why am I living where the air hurts my face.

I don't know HOW  many times Ms Eclectic and I have said this to each other.

28. Having to take your mitts off in the winter to text someone back.

So true! so true! I have the kind of mitts that fold back, exposing bare fingers. But I wear phone-compatible gloves under the mitts. This combination really came handy the last time I was living/working in Regina SK

29. “What’s your background?” I’m Canadian. “no, before that.”

Unlike when the political and social climate in Canada was so strongly anti-US when I arrived in the early 1970s, I have no qualms about saying I'm originally from the US. After all, I have lived in Canada considerably longer than I lived in the US.

30. The calories in poutine. Seriously, the stuff tastes like heaven.

Is this an indicator I'm not a true Canuck? I don't like poutine. However, one of our favourite restaurants makes poutine with onion rings instead of fries, and that's pretty tasty.

Jurassic Park

The Economics Department at The University of Western Ontario maintains an office for its retirees to use now and then. They jokingly refer to the office as "Jurassic Park".

I had some concentrating to do today, so I came to the office to work:

A Tea Kind of Day

Yesterday, I decided to forego my usual morning coffee or Coke Zero but have tea instead. It was a pleasant change of pace.

I have two favourite types of tea, Lapsang Souchong and Genmaicha:

Genmaicha is a Japanese green tea with toasted rice in it. The toasted rice adds a sort of nutty/corny taste to the green tea. I first tried something like it when I was having afternoon tea at Claridges in Mayfair a few years ago. The waiter gave it the euphemistic name "Popcorn Tea", and I didn't much care for it when I tried it there.

However, last year, Ms Eclectic and I had lunch at Gozen a few times and I quite enjoyed the Genmaicha there. It is pleasant, and it is the tea I opted for yesterday morning. More often than not, though, I prefer Lapsang Souchong, about which I have raved often in the past, referring to it as "the Laphraoig of teas". For some reason I absolutely love the smokey, mind-bending flavour of the tea.

To prepare the tea, I "bodomize" it [term via the late BenS]. I like bodomizing tea because when I push down on the press, the tea stops steeping (something I consider important for keeping tea from becoming too bitter). After using the bodomizer, I then cover the teapot with a tea cozy made for me over 30 years ago by my mother:

 Yes, I am something of a tea snot/snob. Not that I'm really all that particular about tea. In fact, a decade ago I knew from nothing about tea and afternoon tea. But since then I have visited numerous establishments, sampling their afternoon teas. During these explorations/expeditions, I have developed a sense of what I like and what I don't like:

- - -

My previous reviews of afternoon (and other) tea presentations, ranked in order of preference:

      These three were superb. Highly recommended:

• The Four Seasons, London, England
• The St. Regis Hotel, Houston, Texas
• The Lanesborough, London, England
  

Those in this large middle group ranged from very good to just okay. I would consider returning to them, but those in the upper portion of the list were significantly better than those in the lower portion of this section:

• Claridge's, London, England
• The Dorchester, London, England
• The Ritz, London, England
• Brown's, London, England

           ----------

• Scolfe's Tea Room, Boreham Street, England (superb, but not really afternoon tea)
• The Pump Room, Bath, England (also superb, but not really afternoon tea)
•  The Windsor Arms, Toronto, Canada
• The Fairmont Pacific Rim, Vancouver, British Columbia
• The Saskatchewan Hotel, Regina, Saskatchewan
• The Boathouse, Guelph, Canada
• The Grand Hotel, Eastbourne, England 
• Langdon Hall, Cambridge, Canada

These next two were unacceptable:

• The Royal Crescent Hotel, Bath, England
• The Queen's Hotel, Portsmouth, England

  * * * * 

The chronology of when I visited each place probably affected my ratings, so here's a chronological list:

1. The Four Seasons, London, England
2. The Royal Crescent Hotel, Bath, England
3. The Pump Room, Bath, England (superb, but not really afternoon tea)
4. Claridge's, London, England
5. The Boathouse, Guelph, Canada
6. The St. Regis Hotel, Houston, Texas
7. The Queen's Hotel, Portsmouth, England
8. The Dorchester, London, England
9. Brown's, London, England
10. Langdon Hall, Cambridge, Canada
11. The Windsor Arms, Toronto, Canada
12. The Ritz, London, England
13. Scolfe's Tea Room, Boreham Street, England (again, not really afternoon tea)
14. The Lanesborough, London, England
15. The Grand Hotel, Eastbourne, England
16. The Saskatchewan Hotel, Regina, Saskatchewan
17. The Fairmont Pacific Rim, Vancouver, British Columbia

Tennis Attire:

No, I'm not going to write about sports bras, thongs, long shorts, tight shorts, or whatever. This piece is a comment on the increasing use of neon yellow by top players.

Have you noticed how many top tennis players these days are wearing neon yellow as part of their outfits? Some players still do some original designs, though, and many players have not made the switch.

Ms Eclectic disagrees with my own perception that more players are wearing some neon yellow during their matches. She pointed out that not one of the six players we were watching at the time I made the observation was wearing neon yellow; nevertheless both Federer and Raonic had been wearing neon yellow in their matches; and so had Serena Williams and Azarenka (time for a foundation grant to study this!).

The reason they wear neon yellow (I surmise) has nothing to do with fashion trends. Rather it is for the same reason that some baseball pitchers try to keep some white undershirt sleeves showing.

Having some clothing the colour of the ball might make it a mite more difficult for one's opponent to pick up the ball when it is coming at them. I expect the neon yellow wristbands do an especially effective job with this.

Having outfits the same colour as the tennis ball surely affects how one's opponent(s) sees the ball coming at him/her/them.

What surprises me is that more of the players are not wearing neon yellow outfits. The fact that they do not suggests that this ploy yields marginal benefits at best. But with so many of the top players moving to neon yellow distractive clothing, I expect more will follow.

The extreme: tennis apparel with blue backgrounds and neon yellow circles roughly the size of tennis balls. I haven't seen this yet, though.

Settled Science? Colour Me Skeptical

Long-time readers of EclectEcon know that I am a global-warming skeptic. Not a denier but a skeptic. I just don't know what to believe, given all the spin put on things.

For example, both the Washington Post and the NYTimes recently published stories about how NASA scientists say the earth is warmer. But then yesterday, the Daily Mail published a piece saying there is considerable uncertainty about the numbers used for that report.

In a press release on Friday, Nasa’s Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) claimed its analysis of world temperatures showed ‘2014 was the warmest year on record’.

The claim made headlines around the world, but yesterday it emerged that GISS’s analysis – based on readings from more than 3,000 measuring stations worldwide – is subject to a margin of error. Nasa admits this means it is far from certain that 2014 set a record at all.

Yet the Nasa press release failed to mention this, as well as the fact that the alleged ‘record’ amounted to an increase over 2010, the previous ‘warmest year’, of just two-hundredths of a degree – or 0.02C. The margin of error is said by scientists to be approximately 0.1C – several times as much.

 

As a result, GISS’s director Gavin Schmidt has now admitted Nasa thinks the likelihood that 2014 was the warmest year since 1880 is just 38 per cent. However, when asked by this newspaper whether he regretted that the news release did not mention this, he did not respond.

In other words, maybe. Or maybe not. And the misrepresentation of the data just adds to one's skepticism.

The Non-Stagnation of Living Standards

To everyone who thinks the standard of living of the middle class has stagnated since 1979, please read this and the links there.  [Addendum: also be sure to read this post by David Henderson.] 

But let me add some thoughts of my own.

• In 1979, I had a rotary-dial phone. There were no cellphones, and push-button tone phones were very expensive.
• I had one 14" colour tv with a bizarre channel-changer.
• I had lots of worn and not-so-worn LPs and had just acquired a cassette recorder-player for music.
• The only video recorders I knew of had prices in the thousands of dollars. I didn't have one.
• If there was an internet, I didn't know about it. I didn't start using email or internet newsgroups until later in the 1980s. I certainly didn't have access to "the web".
• I couldn't buy a loaf of bread and have it last for weeks back then (I know this scares some folks, but I see it as a plus).
• A basic fridge had a price tag only slightly lower than a super-duper one today.
• Air conditioners were priced about the same as today --- but back then I was making only about a quarter of what we were paying new hires when I retired four years ago.
• Some of the cheapest digital watches were about $30 or more. I can buy a better one today for much less than that.
• Microwave ovens! I spent over $700 on a huge clunky one with no turntable. A better one today would be priced at well under $100.
• Eyeglasses for under $10? nobody thought that possible then.
• Fresh fruit and vegetables not just "in season" but all year 'round! What a wonder now!
• And air travel to anywhere is priced about the same now as it was then.
• Not to mention all the great voice and text plans that are so inexpensive. Back then we probably paid over $200/month for just our landline (including long-distance calls). Hunh! the same thing is SO much less expensive now.
• And clothing!!!  Clothing is amazingly inexpensive now. It's so inexpensive that there are extremely good products at very low prices even in the charity shops as people cast off very good clothing.
• I used catalogues to do a lot of my shopping. I was limited to the catalogues from two or three different stores. Compare that with shopping on the web today!

And these are but a few examples.

When I realize that many people on welfare today have a higher standard of living than members of the middle class had in 1979, I find it really hard to believe that people think the middle class isn't better off today.

 

"...A Song of Great Social and Political Importance..."

Janis Joplin's, "Oh Lord, won't you buy me a Mercedes Benz" lampoons the misuses of religion and prayer, focusing on human greed. I thought it was great when I first heard it, and I still like it.

Fibonacci: The Beauty of Mathematics

Over 50 years ago, a learned person introduced me to the joys of Fibonacci sequences and geometric patterns. I didn't use the mathematics much after that, but I did come to appreciate the geometry and the art of Fibonacci patterns.

This one, using 3D-printed objects that are then spun, is simply wonderful [via Ralph]:

Long-time readers of Eclectecon or Facebook friends will recognize the pattern and my attachment to it. For many years my "cover photo" on Facebook was the photo shown below. It will also be one of the photos featured in my upcoming photo exhibition, "It's Only the Beginning" at The Arts Project in London, Ontario, Feb 24 - March 7.

This photograph is called "Fibonacci Explosion":

 

 

Related articles

My Latest Snow Stomp Art (after some melting)

Cat Circles/Hexas

John Edmark's 3D printed Fibonacci Zoetrope...

Artist Uses Algorithms to Carve Hyperdetailed Patterns into Plywood

Sean Connery, One of My Next Roles

In late February I'll be playing Sean Connery in a celebrity red-carpet affair. Maybe with careful makeup and some lifts in my shoes, I can pull it off:

According to Wikipaedia,

In 1989, he was proclaimed "Sexiest Man Alive" by People magazine and in 1999, at age 69, he was voted "Sexiest Man of the Century".

Typecast again? Okay, I can dream anyway.

More Fallout from Detroit's Inefficiency and Corruption: Thousands of Unprocessed Rape Kits

When a business is failing, it often skimps on customer service and quality, and focuses mainly on short-term revenue goals. There is good reason to believe the same thing happens in failing bureaucracies, e.g. the police force of Detroit.

As the funding for pensions, salaries, health care, and other perquisites was drying up, the police force appears to have forsaken some very important criminal and safety issues and redeployed its forces on revenue-generating activities, such as traffic fines, etc.

Here is evidence consistent with this interpretation of what happened there:

Over 11,000 sexual assault kits, some dating back to the 1980's, were found abandoned in a Detroit Police storage facility back in 2009. Not long after the rape kits were discovered, Worthy pushed to start the processing with Michigan State Police.

So far, 1,600 rape kits have been processed, resulting in the identification of about 100 serial rapists and ten convicted rapists, according to Worthy. 
Worthy told reporters that perpetrators have moved on from Michigan to commit similar crimes in 23 other states.

Appalling. But it is consistent with the fundamental premise of economics: People respond to incentives.

Yes, bureaucrats are people; and yes, they too respond to incentives.

My Latest Snow Stomp Art (after some melting)

A few days ago I did some snow stomp art and was quite disappointed when the wind distorted and muted the results of much of my effort. [See this]

Tonight the temperature began to rise -- dramatically. I looked out at the snow stomp art, and the patterns come through wonderfully! They may not be there tomorrow morning, so I'm posting these photos now:

and

[For some of my earlier work, see this, this, this, this, and this,]

Target Is Leaving Canada -- in other news, dog bites man

Target has announced that it is withdrawing from Canada. I'm not surprised.

Almost exactly a year ago, I wrote:

No matter what rationalizations are offered, the simple reason Target is in trouble is that when you walk into and through one of their stores, you're turned off. The selection is limited, the prices aren't all that great, and there's a general feeling of malaise.

I had hoped that when Target took over many of the Zeller's outlets in Canada and then took SO long renovating the facilities, Target would provide a reasonable and viable alternative to Walmart, Canadian Tire, and Superstore. It hasn't. And it will take considerable work and effort on their part to overcome these impressions that apparently many, many Canadian shoppers have of Target.

Target Canada: A waste of money and a lost cause.

Immaturity Forever!

I was sitting around this evening with Ms Eclectic and our Regina granddaughter. Ms Eclectic was basically ragging on me about my immaturity and quoting to our granddaughter some of the things I often say (she laughs and knows I say them in jest):

• Hey, I'm a man! Whadya expect? [I often joke about testosterone poisoning, as if a guy my age (<90) has any left!]
• I was born to have adventure!
• You're never too old to have a happy childhood.
• You're only young once, but you can be immature forever.

And after the last one, our granddaughter (in her 20s) muttered, "I don't want to grow up either."

A special chip off the old block!

Burger Assembly

I have written about my burgers before (here and here). Today I set out to make another batch. I started with about 8lbs of lean ground beef and 4lbs of medium ground beef.

I like to have enough fat in the burgers both for flavour and to hold them together, but interestingly many grocery stores no longer carry medium ground beef ("we can't sell it; nobody buys it any more" is what I was told). We found a few small packs, and given that the lean doesn't seem quite so lean as it did forty years ago, I am hoping this is a pretty decent mix.

Here are the packages of meat and spices, along with my trusty K-Tel patty-stacker, as I prepared to start the project. Note: the coffee is for personal ingestion.

I had to do the mixing in two different batches in the largest pan we have in the place:

Each mixing batch used half the meat and made two full stacks of patties in the patty-stacker:

I bag them in groups of four and freeze them. On average the patties are 5-6oz each.

Generally my view is that "a kitchen's place is in the restaurant", and indeed we do like to eat out quite a bit. But when it comes to burgers, we like our homemade burgers the best.

My Latest, Biggest Snow Stomp Art

We received about 2-3 inches of snow last night, with very little wind. Also, the temperatures were only a few degrees below zero. It looked like a perfect day to go out to the lawn in front of our condo building and do my biggest ever creation of snow stomp art.

Before I began, I had in mind some random paisley patterns with psychedelic swirling in the background. This would be my first go at non-representational snow stomp art, and I was keen to see what would emerge. [For some of my earlier work, see this, this, this, this, and this, 

Things got off to a good start. Ms Eclectic took some photos of my early progress:

As you can see, I used snowshoes for this project. They added to the texture, something I was looking for (vs using snow boots, as I had generally used in previous creations). Snowshoes are more difficult to work with in many ways, but they add enough to make the workout worthwhile.

I doubt the paisley patterns would have looked the way I wanted if I had been in just my snowboots.

Here  you get a sense of the paisley patterns and swirling fill effect for which I was striving:

The side steps were grueling. A great workout!

Above and below you get a better sense of what I hoped to create.

Putting some final touches in before breaking for lunch:

When we returned from lunch, the wind had picked up seriously. I was nearly in tears as I strove to complete the project before the wind destroyed it all. Here are some photos, but it is clear the project just didn't make it. I was freakn devastated.

 

 

Oh well, there will be more snow another day...

Birthdays of People I Barely Know Appearing in my Google Calendar

Over the past month or so, I've seen some birthdays of contacts and Facebook friends, but people I really don't know all that well, showing up in my Google Calendar. I see no reason for those birthdays to appear there. In fact, I have no idea how they got there, and so I clicked on them to try to remove them.

Nope. Can't do it.

And here [via Kip Esquire] is an explanation.

At the time of writing Google’s spokeswoman is “checking” on whether there is any way at all to unsubscribe from Birthdays, and says she’ll get back “as soon as possible”. So if there is a very elusive option to re-unsubscribe I’ll be sure to update this post and add it in....

Whether that option re-materializes or not one thing here is amply clear: Google does not want you to unsubscribe from information it determines should be universally available. That is not part of its mission. It is, in fact, the polar opposite of its mission. Hence making unsubscribing such a wild goose chase. So the theme of reducing user control and increasing algorithmic enforcement is not going to go away anytime soon.

On the contrary, as more and more information piles online — via connected devices and the like — expect more levers of human control to be quietly disappeared or disabled because the algorithmic entities conducting this increasingly pervasive digital symphony really prefer if you just sit there and lap everything up. It makes the big data so much more quantifiable if you do. In short: eyeballs, know thy place!

Still, it’s worth us humans remembering that other calendars are available. Which is one short-term way to route around this sort of TFBS.

Senior's Medicine Cabinet

[via Rebekah]     It has taken me many, many months of my retirement time, but I have just finished building my new Medicine Cabinet. I don't know about you, but I think it was well worth the time and expense.             Disease Wine Daily dose Allergies Chardonnay de Paeuf 1 glass Anemia Graves 4 glass       Bronchitis Bourgogne or Bordeaux > ( + sugar and cinnamon ) 3 cups Constipation Anjou blanc electricity . Vouvray 4 glasses Coronary arteries Dry Champagne 4 glasses Diarrhea Beaujolais Nouveau 4 glasses Fever Champagne sec 1 bottle Heart Burgundy , Santenay Rouge Two glasses Uric acid gout Sancerre , Pouilly Fume 4 glasses Hypertension Alsace , Sancerre 4 glasses Menopause Saint Emilion 4 glasses Depression Rhine 4 glasses Obesity Burgundy 4 glasses Obesity Rose Provence 1 bottle Rheumatism Champagne 4 glasses Excessive weight loss Chateau de Beaune 4 glasses

Cat Circles/Hexas

Over the holidays, my older son (David Ricardo Palmer) told us that if we put a circle on the floor, the cat where we were all chatting would go sit in it. He showed us all the images here of cats sitting in circles or hexagons.

So we decided to try it. We got some duct tape and put a hexagon on the carpet.

The cat at that place would have nothing to do with the hexagon. It may have sniffed at it once or twice, but that was about it.

However, the daughter of my younger son (Adam Smith Palmer) went right to the hexagon and stood in the middle:

We all had a good laugh about how the hexagon was more of a toddler trap than a cat trap.

But the laughing stopped when they finally got around to lifting the tape a few days later. Much of the adhesive was stuck to the carpet and the adhesive residue began collecting dirt. :-( You can see the outline in this photo.

Fortunately it looks as if several goes at the adhesive with GooGone has cleaned it up pretty well.

So if you're going to try cat circles on your own, maybe use a rope or something.... or at least remove the tape before people have walked on it for several days.

Does Anyone Still Support Rent Controls? Really?

The evidence that rent controls are harmful is overwhelming. They:

• lead to deteriorating quality of rental units
• cause black markets to develop, with landlords requiring side payments
• create increased opportunities for discrimination (especially against  immigrants, single parents, and students)
• reduce the supply of rental units, making affordable housing even more difficult to find.

Imagine my shock when I read this piece at the Washington Post blog. The piece begins harmlessly enough, explaining how the "pencil" highrises (tall, narrow buildings) that are popping up all over Manhattan and Washington, DC, are emerging as a solution to increased demand for housing in major urban centres. But suddenly it concluded,

The pencil tower isn't a pretty solution to the problem of exorbitant housing costs, or an elegant one -- rent controls or a more redistributive tax code would help urban residents more directly -- but it is a straightforward way of addressing the housing shortage that is causing financial hardship for so many Americans.

Huh? Rent controls? Really?

The evidence is overwhelming that rent controls, over the long haul, lead to reduced supply of housing, in part because developers hesitate to build rentals units if they think rent controls will be slapped on them. Also, in the face of rent control, many landlords convert their units to condos.

Rent controls might be good for those who pass through the filters and screens and get a nice unit at a low rent. But they also make many people who are disadvantaged worse off by leading to a reduction in the supply of affordable housing.

I'm Proud to Say "I Know Ted Frank"

Ted Frank runs the Centre for Class Action Fairness. His general target is the attorneys who make massive fees while winning pitifully trivial awards for the members of the class. And then he took on the settlements that allowed the defendants to make big donations to charity in lieu of providing awards for members of the class (while attorneys for boths sides rake in the fees and the defendants just shift their charitable giving).

Here is a recent quote about Ted from this site:

"We'll admit it: After describing him as a scourge of the class action plaintiffs bar, a class action gadfly, a crusader, and a serial settlement objector, we're running out of nifty shorthands for Theodore Frank of the Center for Class Action Fairness. Let's just say he gets really fired up by class action settlements he thinks are unfair. And he's got a knack for blowing them apart in the courts."

And at this site, Ted explains the reasoning behind his latest victory:

For years, parties have used cy pres—the practice of giving settlement money to charity instead of the class—in abusive ways. When proposed by defendants, cy pres can be used to create the illusion of relief to justify greater attorneys' fees at the expense of the class when in fact all that is happening is that the defendant is changing accounting entries on charitable donations it would have made anyway. When cy pres is used to justify attorneys' fees, it takes away the incentive of class counsel to prioritize direct recovery to the class: after all, it's much more satisfying to hold a ceremony giving away an oversized $3 million check to a local charity run by a friend than to issue a million $3 checks to ungrateful class members.

Is the Pen Really Mightier Than the Sword?

Maybe, but .....

[via Jack]

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