Every day there are articles in various trade and financial press publications discussing the price of oil and, especially, where it is headed over the next two or more years. See for example this one. And here is another.
Expectations about the future price of oil are important. If oil drillers think the price of oil is going stay low, they'll stop spending the money on exploration and drilling, as was pointed out in the linked article:
According to Baker Hughes, the decline in oil drilling rigs was the most since it began keeping records in 1987. With drillers having idled about 24 percent of their oil drilling rigs since the summer, some traders may be betting that an anticipated slowdown in U.S. oil production is nearer than expected. [emphasis added]
It seems to me the best predictor of what will happen to oil prices in the future is the futures market for oil, where people buy and sell oil for future delivery. This site has a pretty good table showing oil futures prices. Over the next two years, the prices of oil futures for delivery at different dates rise slowly up to nearly $63/bbl.
Contrast these expected future prices with the costs of drilling for new oil, and what I said back in December is holding true:
In general, if the price of oil is expected to remain below $65/bbl, then there won't likely be many new shale oil facilities that will make it beyond the planning stage. And if the price of oil is expected to remain down nearer to $50/bbl for a long period, no new projects are likely to be begun in the arctic, tar sands, or deep sea.
The marginal costs of pumping oil from existing wells are being covered, so it is unlikely that oil production will slow much, if at all. But so long as people in the oil industry expect oil prices to remain low for the next several years, oil drilling and new fracking will likely slow to a near standstill.