"We saw a lot of road kill and thought of you." —my sister
For more information on oil prices, click here. Podcasts of My Intro Economics lectures (in .wma format) For my 2005 Radio Economics MP3 podcasts, go to the bottom of the page that lists the lecture podcasts.
Canada
United States
Israel
My email address: [email protected] My 2005 post about the housing crisis, before it happened, is here.
There is a famous statue/fountain in Brussels of a little boy urinating; it is called Manneken Pis.
I often wonder if the condo management where I live would be willing to put a replica of the statue in our lobby. I'd be willing to contribute more than my pro-rated share if they would.
I was reminded of this statue/fountain when I saw this photo (the Canadian version of Manneken Pis?) on Facebook:
There is a famous statue/fountain in Brussels of a little boy peeing, called Manneken Pis.
I often wonder if the condo management where I live would be willing to put a replica of the statue in our lobby. I'd be willing to contribute more than my pro-rated share if they would.
I was reminded of this statue/fountain when I saw this photo (the Canadian version of Manneken Pis?) on Facebook:
This morning my online statement from Rogers Bank (a Mastercard offering 1.75% cashback, which I can apply to pay my Rogers bill) says:
Current Balance: $xxx.xx Due Date: 01/25/2016 Minimum Due: $10.00 Past Due Amount: $0.00
I wrote them to ask how I could have a balance due five days before today. Their canned response was that the "Due Date" is listed as the previous due date.
Huh?? I have no past due amount, but I have a minimum amount due 5 days ago?
In the summer of 2012, I gave a public lecture at The University of Regina. In that lecture I criticized higher education because most people don't remember much of what they studied as undergraduates. As an alternative, I emphasized signaling theories of education. I also emphasized the importance of learning-by-doing and the importance of learning from one's own mistakes.
Below is a link to the lecture on YouTube. Unfortunately, the technician forgot to turn the microphone on until the 26-minute mark. So you will miss the introductory remarks by Hafiz Akhand, who was the economics department chair out there at the time. You will also miss my own introduction in which I chronicle all the evidence I had from my own life about everything I may have learned but then quickly forgot. Here is a snippet from the notes I had prepared for that talk:
Old exam story. Saw an intermediate theory exam I’d taken as an undergrad. “Did I know that then? I don’t remember having studied or learned that.”
Disclaimer and personal history.
The fact that I didn’t learn or retain much as an undergrad would surprise none of my undergraduate professors. Ds in two econ courses, Failed a math course, barely passed and barely graduated. Majored in bridge and the identity crisis, and if there’d been an exam in bridge, I’d probably have failed that.
Re-took all the math. Even after only three years, remembered very little.
Okay, okay, I remembered a few things. Dy/dx when y = xn
Virtually no Russian. No Henry James. No Plato, etc. No chem-phys. A bit of Hemmingway. One specific paragraph from Tropic of Cancer that I won’t recite for you now.
Not much econ, really. One item that I remembered and that stood out was the result of a phone call to my prof. Technology change. Used it in gradskool.
Micro theory? Bad sense of analytic geometry by prof. Also methodology (and Machiavelli).
Money and banking? A lot of IS-LM and a prof who looked out the window and cancelled classes.
As I said, I was a bad student, but I think I was fairly typical. How many of you remember very much from the undergrad courses you took (aside from, but maybe even including, fields in which you have continued to work?)
Another example from a different realm: It may be old age, but when I look back at some of the things I wrote the blog 7-9 years ago, I think, “Really? I don’t remember that.” The point I’m making is that memory deteriorates, even with continued refreshing. In Econ speak, if memory is a capital good, like a machine, it deteriorates over time, and (speaking as a senior citizen) it requires continued gross investment to keep it working.
So suppose we do remember very little and use practically none of what we may have learned. What does that imply about higher ed?
Before I try to answer that,
Teaching experiences and thresholds for law and biz.: Experiences at UWO: 70 for bizskool, 80 for lawskool numbers have changed but the idea is still the same.
Couldn’t let them through unless they had demonstrated….. what? That they had learned enough?
Well that fits in nicely with the “human K theory of ed”
But does it follow if we don’t remember any/much of what we are taught? And what if what we DO remember has nothing to do with our future productivity?
What I seem to be moving toward is a challenge of the “human capital theory” of education, which says we get education, at least in part, so we will be more productive in the future.
Those are just the notes for the first 26 minutes. If you would like to see the entire set of notes, I'll be happy to send them to you. Just write me or post a comment requesting them.
And here is the link to the YouTube video [it's about 1 hour and 41 minutes long. I think the last 35-40 minutes are questions-and-answers.
Friends will recognize two things (aside from my general lack of gift of glib):
The necktie. A colleague and I bought a bunch of them on sale and distributed them among our colleagues at The University of Regina, dubbing them "the official economics department necktie."
Much of my thinking on this topic was heavily influenced not just by my own experiences and by those of my friends and students, but also by the posts of Bryan Caplan at Econlog. See the links to his posts here.
Finally, let me say that I was really pleased with this lecture. I'm glad I was finally able to salvage this much of it.
45 Years ago today I visited London, Ontario, on a recruiting trip to The University of Western Ontario. I think I had probably been through here once as a child, but this trip was essentially my introduction to the city and to the university.
I flew into town the evening of January 24th, 1971, spent the day of the 25th meeting with future colleagues, and left town on the 26th.
Those were different days for the economics department at UWO. It was known as a revolving door, hiring ten people a year, and firing (actually, not renewing) 8 or 9 each year. The department was growing in size and stature and was serious in how it approached the hiring-firing decisions. Several of my future colleagues groused about the uncertainty and what seemed like inappropriate or unequally applied standards (to them), but they also all agreed UWO would be a good place to have been.
I had always hoped to go to a small liberal arts college to teach. I didn't want to write anything more than what was required for my dissertation. (What a change I went through. See this). But UWO looked like an exciting place to be, and my future colleagues convinced me it was worth coming here for a few years.
The day of interviews was gloriously warm, for late January. The sun was shining. We walked around campus in our sport coats and basked in the sun. People joked about how the snow-sculpture contest was going to have to be canceled.
Lunch at the faculty club, meetings with more future colleagues, dinner with a former gradskool classmate. An exciting day. But nothing like what was to come...
The Blizzard of January, 1971
The morning of the 26th, I got up early and went down to the lobby to catch a limo/bus to the airport. It had started snowing, and the snow looked as if it was pretty heavy, but the streets to the airport were okay, and I made it to the airport with plenty of time to spare.
Those were the days with no security checks at the airports. Those of us who were due to fly out stood by the window, looking at the runway, a bit worried about the intensifying snowfall, and speculating about whether we would make it out.
Soon, breaking through the clouds, we could barely make out the Air Canada plane that was due to arrive (and which would be our return flight to Toronto).
We saw the plane approach the runway, and then pull up.
Massive groan.
But then we saw it come back for another attempt at landing.
It pulled up again. Another groan.
It made a third attempt but again pulled up. The pilot didn't feel safe landing because he couldn't see the runway!
In those days, with fares as high as they were (in real dollars), airlines took on many more obligations than they do nowadays. We all queued up at the ticket desk, and the Air Canada ticket agents rebooked our flights out of Toronto and then put us all in taxicabs to the Toronto airport. I was put on an American Airlines flight to Chicago and had plenty of time to make it.
The trip to Toronto was interesting. By coincidence, I was in a cab with Levis Kochin, an economist who went on to have a very successful career at The University of Washington.
We arrived in Toronto in plenty of time. I checked in at the American ticket counter, and we boarded the plane while the sun was still shining.
Then the snow hit with a vengeance. American canceled the flight and told us to disembark and reschedule.
I think I must have joined 5-6 different queues during the next 24 hours, changing flights, getting vouchers for a hotel and meals, catching a cab to some hotel, rebooking flights again and again. At least in those days the airlines put us up when bad weather interrupted our flights.
I managed to get out by noon the next day, but it sure was a challenging welcome for a recruiting trip.
I was reminded of this recruiting trip by the blizzard that hit the US middle-east this weekend.
The blizzard that hit London that year was pretty serious (though not as serious as the blizzards of 1977-78). According to one report,
1971 A 5 day long blizzard in London, Ontario dumps 62cm snow and kills 3. It was the worst blizzard in decades
And here is a column from newspaper in a nearby town describing that storm.
We may complain about weather forecasting, but it is one heckuva lot better now than it was 45 years ago!
I have railed relentlessly in the past about "Storm Porn" and about how forecasters and mediots so often focus on worst-case scenarios --- forecasters because they don't want to be held responsible if things turn out to be worse than forecast [someone called it CYA forecasting]; mediots because drama sells and pumps up ratings. [see this, this, and this]
For the storm this weekend that hit the U.S. middle east, forecasters got it wrong on the low side, though. From the NYTimes, this is the map of how much snow was being forecast on Friday afternoon.
And this is how much actually fell over Friday and Saturday:
That storm was MUCH worse than anticipated. And now these places have to figure out how to remove so much snow and then where to put it all!
I went 2 - 2 last weekend, which is a whole lot better than 0 - 4 the previous weekend.
The spread on Sunday's games hasn't budged all week (not yet, anyway) according to Yahoo Sports.
New England at Denver [3pm EST]. The spread says New England by 3. This despite their earlier loss in overtime in Denver. New England looked weak in their last few games of the season, but last week with some of their wounded warriors back at near-full-strength, they looked very good against Kansas City. At the same time, Peyton Manning and the Broncos looked pretty pathetic in their win over Pittsburgh. These things probably are what have driven bettors to keep the spread at NE -3. And I expect the New England Economists to cover the spread. Take NE minus the points.
Arizona at Carolina [6:40 EST]. The spread is Carolina by 3. Carolina nearly blew a 31-point lead over Seattle last week but still looked good in that game. Arizona looked lucky to win their game against Green Bay in overtime. Carolina is dynamite good. I cannot fathom why this spread is so low. Take Carolina minus the points.
For what it's worth, my granddaughter's partner agrees with these picks.
[Note: this post was written Friday afternoon. I may update it if there are any substantive changes that I hear about before game times]
From the Washington Post. I confess that until a few years ago I used one of these for one of my accounts. I changed it then, after reading an article like this one, but I really hate having to remember 130 different passwords. 8-)
Here are the 25 most popular passwords discovered in data breaches in 2015, according to SplashData:
It would seem unlikely with today's technology that sailors could convince a mapmaker to put an island on the map that didn't exist; it would seem even more unlikely that mapmakers would remove an island that actually existed from a map.
Non-existent islands were a surprisingly common problem in the 19th century. Some of them may have once been actual islands, which later sunk beneath the waters. Some of them were genuine mistakes–icebergs misidentified as islands, islands whose longitudes were miscalculated, illusions that really did look like they might be land. Some were straight-up fabricated by sea captains looking to curry favor with funders.
The accumulation of these frauds, errors and mislaid hopes, though, meant that by the end of the 1800s, there were 200 or so islands marked in charts and atlases that just did not exist. ...
By the mid-19th century, the proliferation of nonexistent islands was becoming a serious problem for cartographers. In Britain, the Royal Navy’s charts were cluttered with false reports, and, in particular, the 1864 edition of Admiralty Chart 2683, which mapped the Pacific Ocean, was full of mistakes. For the 1875 edition, Sir Fredreick Evans, who had spent years surveying waterways and oceans, cut 123 islands from the map, includingthree that actually existed.
Even that purge did not make world maps accurate, though. Morrell Island slipped through, for instance. As recently as 2012, Sandy Island, which was supposed to be east of Australia, was shown not to exist.
Regular readers of Eclectecon know that I have championed academic freedom for decades. They also know that beginning with very early posts, I vehemently opposed any attempts to ostracize or boycott Israeli scholars. I went so far as to obtain academic affiliation (albeit nominal) with Bar-Ilan University and the University of Haifa, just to make the point that anyone who wanted to boycott scholars from Israeli universities would have to include me in the boycott.
On January 16, 2016, the American Association of Universities re-issued the following statement, opposing any boycotts of Israeli universities or Israeli scholars [h/t Canadian Academics for Peace [CAP] in the Middle East]. Even if you disagree with what Israel does in the west bank, this is the right position.
The Executive Committee of the Association of American Universities strongly opposes a boycott of Israeli academic institutions. Three U.S. scholarly organizations have now expressed support for such a boycott. Any such boycott of academic institutions directly violates academic freedom, which is a fundamental principle of AAU universities and of American higher education in general.
Academic freedom is the freedom of university faculty responsibly to produce and disseminate knowledge through research, teaching, and service, without undue constraint. It is a principle that should not be abridged by political considerations. American colleges and universities, as well as like institutions elsewhere, must stand as the first line of defense against attacks on academic freedom.
Efforts to address political issues, or to address restrictions on academic freedom, should not themselves infringe upon academic freedom. Restrictions imposed on the ability of scholars of any particular country to work with their fellow academics in other countries, participate in meetings and organizations, or otherwise carry out their scholarly activities violate academic freedom. The boycott of Israeli academic institutions therefore clearly violates the academic freedom not only of Israeli scholars but also of American scholars who might be pressured to comply with it. We urge American scholars and scholars around the world who believe in academic freedom to oppose this and other such academic boycotts.
The Economist has a recent article about the agglomeration economies experienced by high-tech firms as they gravitate to certain geographic centres. The article refers to "Clusterluck".
DISTANCE is not dead. In biotechnology, as in other tech-based industries, the clustering of similar firms is more important than ever. Some American biotech startups are based in the San Francisco and Silicon Valley area, huddled with its many digital and IT startups. But the Boston metropolitan area—and in particular Cambridge, across the Charles river from central Boston—seems to be holding its own as the world’s pre-eminent biotech hub.
Clusterluck... a nice term. ;)
Obviously the article focuses on Boston and Cambridge. But there is another geographic locale that deserves mention: London.
London, Ontario, that is. The digital and hi-tech firms in London, Ontario, have been growing in unprecedented number and size over the past few years. Some have located in former churches, restaurants, and factories, putting in pretty impressive digs for the employees. Others are building new space from the ground up. And London is just one place this is happening. Another is the long-time computing centre of Canada, Kitchener-Waterloo.
One thing that makes London, Ontario, so attractive is the comparatively low cost of living here. Housing is inexpensive (especially compared with Silicon Valley and Boston in the US and Vancouvre or Trono in Canada), and that means people are willing to work for less here, making the firms more-than-competitive internationally. And of course, while the lower international price of the Loonie makes imports of fruits and vegetables more expensive here, it also makes the output produced here much easier to market internationally.
New evidence suggests that people who live above the third floor of high-rise buildings have a lower chance of surviving a heart attack. From Science Daily,
The further a patient with cardiac arrest is from the ground floor, the lower the survival rate. Of 8216 people who had cardiac arrests in private residences and were treated by 911-initiated first responders, 3.8% survived to be discharged from hospital. Of the 5998 (73%) people living below the 3rd floor who had cardiac arrests, 252 (4.2%) survived the arrest, but only 48 (2.6%) of the 1844 people living above the 3rd floor survived. When analysed floor by floor, the researchers found a survival rate of only 0.9% in those living above the 16th floor (2 of 216) and no survivors (0 of 30) in those living above the 25th floor.
..."The 911 response time, from emergency activation to arrival of first responders on scene, will remain relatively constant, so long as traffic patterns do not change; however, the time from arrival on scene to initial patient contact may increase as more of the population comes to live at or above the third floor," write the authors. [Emphasis added]
We live above the third floor in our building, but as Ms. Eclectic says, "We ain't movin'".
An article in today's Financial Post suggests some economists think that currency instability is "now a serious concern" for Canada. They are wrong.
The rapid drop has been exacerbated by crumbling oil prices and monetary divergence, as a strong American labour market and solid economic growth led the U.S. Federal Reserve to increase interest rates in December.
Well, of course crumbling oil prices have had an impact on the US price of the Canuck Buck.
This all seems like hooey and empty hand-wringing to me:
The Loon is a petro-currency and moves with the price of oil. A year ago, nobody but nobody predicted the price of oil to go below $30/bbl. People aren't buying as much of our oil, and they're paying much less for what they do buy. It should come as no surprise that the demand for the Canuck buck has dropped off the shelf and that hence the foreign value of it has also dropped precipitously.
The US Fed announced a raise in the interest rate, and that has led short-term capital flows to move toward the US. That part is correct. But by a lot of measures (especially real growth and labour-force participation rates), the US economy isn't doing all that well itself. The Canadian economy seems healthier in many ways (aside from all that massive gubmnt debt and aside from what looks like ridiculous fiscal mismanagement in Alberta and Ontario).
Businesses trading internationally can and do hedge against currency fluctuations. Those that don't sometimes win and sometimes lose. I have a friend who runs a small-ish manufacturing business, and he hedges all his US dollar transactions in the forward market through his small-town bank. I expect he has taught the bankers there a few things. If people don't want to gamble about the short-term swings in a currency, they can hedge against those swings in the forward markets.
After having gone 0-4 with my NFL picks last weekend, I thought I'd take another shot this weekend. The spreads I'm using are from the Yahoo Sports application on my iPhone.
Kansas City at New England. The odds makers have set New England by 5. Regular readers of EclectEcon, as well as my Facebook friends, know that I am a huge fan of New England, often referring to them as "The New England Economists" because Coach Belichick majored in economics and at one time asserted that his economics training helped him with his decision-making. Also, I have a New England hoodie (bunny-hug for my Saskatchewan friends) that I often wear on game days.
All that aside, New England has not looked good lately, and Kansas City has looked very good lately. I'll take Kansas City plus the points. I'll be cheering for the New England Economists, and hoping they win by less then 5.
Green Bay at Arizona. The spread is now Arizona by 7.5. Really?? I may be out to lunch on this, but Seattle, who didn't look all that good last week against Minnesota, blew away the Cardinals (in Arizona!) the previous week; and Green Bay looked mighty good last week (albeit against a not-so-good Redskin team) after their hohum loss to Minnesota the previous week. I know Arizona has been good all season, but I don't see them winning at all, much less by 7.5. I'll take Green Bay plus the 7.5.
Seattle at Carolina. Carolina has an excellent record with an excellent team and a star quarterback, and has home field advantage. At the same time, Seattle has looked very good in the last two-thirds of the season, aside from their narrow very lucky victory last week. The spread says Carolina by 2 points. I'll take Carolina minus the points.
Pittsburgh at Denver. This is a tough game to call for me. I don't really expect either of these teams to be in the superbowl. I have always really liked the play of Peyton Manning and of the Broncos when he is playing, and I expect they will win. But the spread is Denver by 7.5! (That's an exclamation point, not a factorial sign - actually I have no idea how to take a factorial of a decimal, so that and this are needless nerd-digressions). Back to the game. I can see this one going in any direction. I have extremely weak priors about this, weaker than my other picks. Coin toss: Denver minus the points.
As my friends have learned, if you want to make money gambling on sports, the best strategy is to bet against my picks.
I have long favoured awarding the prize to Richard Posner, but increasingly I think I would favour awarding it to Deirdre McCloskey. Note that I have made the appropriate change in the brief post under the banner for this blog. I'd be especially happy if the Nobel prize were awarded to the two them jointly.
I discussed these views and other things with Doug Goldstein here. The interview with me begins at about the 8:50 mark.
Here are my picks for the NFL playoff games today and tomorrow [the spreads shown on Yahoo Sports are in brackets]:
Kansas City at Houston [KC by 3]. Houston is pretty good and they have an all-star defensive player. Also Houston has home field, which is generally worth 5-7 points. I'll take Houston plus the points.
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati [Pittsburgh by 1.5]. Dalton (QB for Cincinnati) was too important for that team and is injured, so I can understand the oddsmakers' spread here. But I'll still take Cincinnati plus the points.
Seattle at Minnesota [Seattle by 4]. Seattle is scary good, and while Minnesota looked good (but not great) beating Green Bay, they just aren't as good as Seattle. I'll take Seattle minus the points.
Green Bay at Washington [Washington by 1]. Green Bay hasn't looked all that good in their last few games, and Washington has. I'll take Washington minus the point.
Gubmnts have run up massive debts, increasingly so after 2007 and the Great Recession. A recent study by The Fraser Institute (reported here in the NatPost) points out that the total amounts currently being spent on just the interest payments on gubmnt debt now surpass the total amounts being spent on K-12 education in Canada. Imagine what the interest costs will be if/when interest rates rise back up to the 3-4% range that might be thought of as more "normal" (whatever that means). From the article:
Combined federal and provincial debt in this country will top $1.3 trillion this year, according to a new Fraser Institute report out Tuesday.
“It’s not a trivial amount,” said Charles Lammam, one of the report’s co-authors of the $450 billion in government debt that’s accrued since the recession. “There’s [sic] short and long-term consequences.”
In the short term, massive interest payments on debt gobble up revenues that could be better spent, Lammam said. Local, provincial and federal governments pay more than $60 billion a year to service their debt, money that could be better spent on services. Over the long-term, a growing body of research suggest [sic] heavy government debt loads dampen economic growth.
The current 90-day T-bill rate in Canada is about 0.50. Imagine what the numbers in the Fraser study would be like if interest rates were 3.5% or higher, as they were a decade ago!
Debt servicing is going to become a major issue for the future.
Students today are often given a skewed account of the Great Depression of 1929-1941 that condemns free-market capitalism as the cause of, and promotes government intervention as the solution to, the economic hardships of the era. In this essay based on a popular lecture, Foundation for Economic Education President Lawrence W. Reed debunks this conventional view and traces the central role that poor government policy played in fostering this legendary catastrophe.
Most of the reviews are quite positive, noting that it is brief (possibly too brief), but with good references to further reading. Some criticize it as a libertarian attack on Hoover, Roosevelt, and the New Deal. Those who make this criticism should understand that many of us who have become libertarian (or quasi/pseudo libertarian) in our views did so because of things pointed out in this book. In other words, the causation goes the other way: historical book leads to a change in one's views about policy, not libertarian views lead one to read only books by libertarians.
This morning Ms Eclectic sent me a review of five white wines that are readily available in Ontario. I know I have tried and liked several of them, but my palate is so untrained (i.e. I settle for most plonks and am happy) that I can't believe the things wine reviewers write about wines. Do they make this stuff up?
Here are just two that I have tried and enjoyed, but I had to look twice to make sure the write-up wasn't from The Onion.
2013 Jackson-Triggs Niagara Estate Black Series Riesling Gewurztraminer, VQA Niagara Peninsula (Ontario), #357129, $13.95.
Honeysuckle, crushed rose petal and orange blossom aromas lead to a silky-rich attack of ripe pear and grapefruit edged with crushed granite, white flowers and a certain salinity. Impressively balanced wine here offering more complexity, concentration and length than most $14 bottles. Sophisticated — and gastronomically versatile — wine for the money, made right here in Ontario.
Score: 90
014 Mike Weir Sauvignon Blanc, VQA Ontario, #686972, $14.95.ß
Enliven your palate with a sip of this tight, bright and sassy pour. Flavours of damp herbs and gooseberry wash over the palate before revealing a wet stone and sea salt underpinning that lingers. This is a great local go-to sauvignon blanc with power and finesse harnessed by impeccably balance and zippy acidity. Fabulous with a broad range of foods.
Score: 88+
Really? People who write things like this must have very vivid imaginations. I've noticed the same thing about descriptions of various scotch whiskies.
I really am a Philistine in many ways: I don't believe these descriptions, but I know what I like.
Addendum: But look at the fourth wine listed in that review. This sounds like the right wine for those of us on low-carb diets:
Hands-down this is one of the most delicious offerings from Ontario for under $15. Best part? It’s also the lowest-calorie white wine from Ontario with only about 70 calories and zero carbs per 5-ounce pour. It sings with luscious peach, sweet apricot and cooked apple flavours laced with mouth-watering lime. I’ve recommended this wine before, but it definitely deserves a place on this list.
The sin? Dressing up opinions as facts by saying, "It is widely believed...." without documenting "believed by whom and by how many?" when more often than not (one suspects) the statement that follows "it is widely believed..." is little more than the writer's opinion, which is shared by some people who have a similar outlook on politics or policy.
Some examples:
... [F]rom a recent article in the Economist on the trend toward greater college enrollment by women: “Numbers in many of America’s elite private colleges are more evenly balanced. It is widely believed that their opaque admissions criteria are relaxed for men.” Maybe it’s “widely believed” and maybe it isn’t — it depends on what “widely” means — but that allegation is a serious one, and it deserves more support than a casual allusion to what’s “widely believed.” ...
Earlier this year, for instance, a writer for the Los Angeles Times began his column by noting that “it is widely held that the dopiest anti-Obamacare lawsuit is King vs. Burwell.” And an editor at the New Republic observed that Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Tex.) is “widely considered one of the most socially inept candidates.” Maybe both these statements are true and I am irritated by them only because, not sharing the writers’ political views, I am not included in their uses of “widely.” But when the New Yorker, in a highly flattering profile of Secretary of State John Kerry, refers offhandedly to “George W. Bush, who is widely considered the worst President of the modern era,” I am pretty sure that that “widely” does not mean what most of us mean when we use it.
I get it. I used to think George W. Bush was the worst president in US history and then Barack Obama was elected. It is widely believed among about half my Facebook friends that Obama is the best president ever; it is also widely believed among about half my Facebook friends that Obama is the worst president ever. I just happen to have a wide circle of friends from numerous walks of life.
And that brings me to all the journalists who quote an economist in their stories. I'm making this next one up, but it captures the essence of what happens:
A journalist will do a story on some proposed economic policy, say, increasing the minimum wage. S/he will call some economist at some university and get a quote that says, "Over eighty percent of economists believe that raising the minimum wage will reduce job opportunities for York and Calgary graduates unskilled workers. But the journalist cares about the working poor and doesn't want to hear this view.
And so the journalist calls another economist known to have more elitist, interventionist views who will say, "The evidence about job loss is unclear, and even if there is job loss, it is very minor, compared with the increased income for the working poor." Of course this quote will be introduced with, "But many other economists disagree." How many others?
All too often I hear or read quotes from economists who have little or no empirical or theoretical backing for their statements referred to by the MSM as representative of the profession. So here's another, this one from me....
It is widely believed that most journalists are more left-wing, more big-gubmnt, and more elitist-interventionist than the general public.
It is widely believed that most journalists have no clue about the concept of opportunity costs.
It is widely believed that most journalists think the demands for housing, gasoline, York and Calgary graduates unskilled labour, and water are all perfectly inelastic (i.e. they believe that the quantities demanded do not decline as the price goes up, ceteris paribus).
It is widely believed that journalists need to learn more basic economics.
King Banaian (aka Sparky) and I have known each other for about 25 years, ever since the early days of rec.sport.baseball. We finally met up at an economics convention a few years after meeting online, and then we had a chance to meet face-to-face again several years ago as I was driving through St. Cloud Minnesota.
King is a very bright guy with an amazing, quick mind. I've appeared in numerous podcasts with him in the past as well as exchanged blog posts and citations with him over the past decade.
He has asked me to appear on his radio programme this morning. He says he wants to talk about curling because I used to write a blog (with the late Alan Adamson) about curling. But he also says the half-hour conversation could go anywhere. I'm fine with that. I trust him.
You can listen anywhere via the internet:
Go to the homepage of the station http://www.twincitiesbusinessradio.com/ and you will see a Listen Live button near the top-center third of the page. Opens a new window with a player, runs a 15-second ad first.
He says the programmes are also available as podcasts, and so I'll post the link as soon as I get the precise link.
"I really enjoy your site, and I'm planning to assign your blog to my students. I love to find "real world" examples to supplement the text, and your blog is terrific for that. Thanks for writing it!" -- J.A.B.