After having gone 0-4 with my NFL picks last weekend, I thought I'd take another shot this weekend. The spreads I'm using are from the Yahoo Sports application on my iPhone.
- Kansas City at New England. The odds makers have set New England by 5. Regular readers of EclectEcon, as well as my Facebook friends, know that I am a huge fan of New England, often referring to them as "The New England Economists" because Coach Belichick majored in economics and at one time asserted that his economics training helped him with his decision-making. Also, I have a New England hoodie (bunny-hug for my Saskatchewan friends) that I often wear on game days.
All that aside, New England has not looked good lately, and Kansas City has looked very good lately. I'll take Kansas City plus the points. I'll be cheering for the New England Economists, and hoping they win by less then 5. - Green Bay at Arizona. The spread is now Arizona by 7.5. Really?? I may be out to lunch on this, but Seattle, who didn't look all that good last week against Minnesota, blew away the Cardinals (in Arizona!) the previous week; and Green Bay looked mighty good last week (albeit against a not-so-good Redskin team) after their hohum loss to Minnesota the previous week. I know Arizona has been good all season, but I don't see them winning at all, much less by 7.5. I'll take Green Bay plus the 7.5.
- Seattle at Carolina. Carolina has an excellent record with an excellent team and a star quarterback, and has home field advantage. At the same time, Seattle has looked very good in the last two-thirds of the season, aside from their narrow very lucky victory last week. The spread says Carolina by 2 points. I'll take Carolina minus the points.
- Pittsburgh at Denver. This is a tough game to call for me. I don't really expect either of these teams to be in the superbowl. I have always really liked the play of Peyton Manning and of the Broncos when he is playing, and I expect they will win. But the spread is Denver by 7.5! (That's an exclamation point, not a factorial sign - actually I have no idea how to take a factorial of a decimal, so that and this are needless nerd-digressions). Back to the game. I can see this one going in any direction. I have extremely weak priors about this, weaker than my other picks. Coin toss: Denver minus the points.
As my friends have learned, if you want to make money gambling on sports, the best strategy is to bet against my picks.