EclectEcon

Would Someone Please Teach MLB What Alphabetical Order Means?

I went to a website to vote for players for the July Major League Baseball  All-Star Game today.

At the end, a voter must select a favourite team. I had trouble finding the Toronto Blue Jays on the list Here is a screen capture of the drop-down menu they made available when I voted:

Which Theoretical Models are More Reliable?

I'm old enough to have experienced major paradigm shifts in many areas. And so I wonder, which theoretical models make predictions most in line with future events?

Macroeconomic models?

• Keynesian stuff we were taught and then retaught ourselves was way off because it tended to understate the importance of money.
• Monetary models have let us down somewhat because they often missed the importance of expectations.
• Rational expectations models were a big bust because they ignored the time costs of search and adjustment.

Climate Change Models?

• In the 1970s, it was global cooling we were concerned with.
• In the 1990s, it was global warming. The forecasting models for both have both been wildly inaccurate.

Nutrition Models?

• Remember how fat was bad and carbs were ok?
• Remember how maybe unsaturated fats were ok, but certainly saturated fats were not?
• And the most recent evidence is that there is no identifiable connection between saturated fats and premature death rates.

Astronomy Models?

• Geocentric models
• Solar models
• Milky Way
• Black Holes
• Big Bang
• Dark Matter and Energy (we have lots of black boxes in the social sciences, too)

And for each model, there have been people who claim "It's settled science!"

What's worse, throughout history the proponents of the settled science have persecuted and prosecuted the questioners, the skeptics. And it is still happening. From George Will:

Authoritarianism, always latent in progressivism, is becoming explicit. Progressivism’s determination to regulate thought by regulating speech is apparent in the campaign by 16 states’ attorneys general and those of the District of Columbia and the Virgin Islands, none Republican, to criminalize skepticism about the supposedly “settled” conclusions of climate science. ...

“The debate is settled,” says Obama. “Climate change is a fact.” Indeed. The epithet “climate change deniers,” obviously coined to stigmatize skeptics as akin to Holocaust deniers, is designed to obscure something obvious: Of course the climate is changing; it never is not changing — neither before nor after theMedieval Warm Period (end of the 9th century to the 13th century) and the Little Ice Age (1640s to 1690s), neither of which was caused by fossil fuels. ...

The leader of the attorneys general, New York’s Eric Schneiderman, dismisses those who disagree with him as “morally vacant.” His moral content is apparent in his campaign to ban fantasy sports gambling because it competes with the gambling (state lottery, casinos, off-track betting) that enriches his government.

And of course, it's all for own good.

 

Related articles

Another Low-Carb, High-Fat Diet

Politicians Hate You

Economic Outlook

The guardian: Fat is your friend - Paleo Diet India

Important Copyright Decision

Fair-use of someone's published works means that it's okay to quote sections for review or research purposes. It does not mean it is okay to copy their works holus bolus.

My experience with Google Books and with Amazon has always been that that is precisely what they provide. In other words, they were making snippets or brief sections available for review or research purposes.

Finally, today the U.S. Supreme Court confirmed this finding (from WaPo):

The Supreme Court on Monday declined to hear a challenge from authors who had argued that the tech giant's project was "brazen violation of copyright law" -- effectively ending the legal battle in Google's favor.

Without the Supreme Court taking up the case, a federal appeals court ruling from October, which found that the book-scanning program fell under the umbrella of fair use, will stand. ...

When the case reached the U.S. Court of Appeals for the 2nd Circuit last year, a panel of three judges sided with Google -- finding that the tech giant's efforts amounted to a "transformative" use of the material and that snippets from searching the database don't amount to a "substantial substitute" for an original book.

Plastic Bags

I generally like plastic bags for many uses, and I have written about them before.

• Are Plastic Bags Our Enemy?
• What Is the Price Elasticity of Demand for Plastic Grocery Bags?

But it disturbs me that so many people are so careless and/or thoughtless about using and disposing of plastic bags.

Today Ms Eclectic and I walked down to listen to the birds along the river and had a delightful stroll. One jarring note, though, was all the plastic bags that had been trapped by the weeds and bushes as the river subsided after its spring highs:

 

Palestinian Christians

Quoted from the Elder of Ziyon [EE: emphasis added]:

Khaled Abu Toameh: Palestinians: Erasing Christian History

For Palestinian Christians, the destruction of the ancient Byzantine church ruins is yet a further attempt by Palestinian Muslim leaders to efface both Christian history and signs of any Christian presence in the West Bank and Gaza, under the Palestinian Authority (PA) and Hamas. A growing number of Christians feel they are being systematically targeted by both the PA and Hamas for being Christians.
Bulldozers were used to destroy some of the church artifacts; some Palestinian Christians accused both Hamas and the PA of copying ISIS tactics to demolish historic sites.
"Where are the heads of the churches in Jerusalem and the world?... Where are the Vatican and UNESCO? Where are the leaders and politicians who talk, talk, talk about national unity and the preservation of holy sites? Or is this a collective conspiracy to end our existence and history in the East?" — Sami Khalil, a Christian from the West Bank city of Nablus.
The plight of Palestinian Christians does not interest the international community. That is because Israel cannot be blamed for demolishing the antiquities. If the current policy against Christians persists, the day will come when no Christians will be left in Bethlehem.

Special Weather Statement

Everyone thinks I'm upset because it snowed here again today.

Nope.

I'm upset because the forecast says it's going to rain tonight and my latest snow stomp art will be washed away soon.

Links to most of my previous snow-stomp art (in reverse chronological order):

Special Weather Statement (this post)

Think Tropics

Qubix

Valentine, 2016

Paisley'd Circles

Happy New Year, 2016

The House of the Rising Sun

Easter Eggs

A weak pattern in the blowing snow.

The same pattern after some melting

New Year's Champagne

Tiptoe Through the Tulips

Happy Valentine's Day

Cabaret

A Christmas Tree (my first effort)

Sweden, Denmark, and Sanders' Socialism

Yesterday Jack sent me this piece. Everyone who holds up Scandinavian countries as some sort of big-gubmnt ideal needs to think about these points.

At one time, Sweden, a small nation, had the fourth-largest economy in the world. That was in 1970. Twenty-five years later, the economy had tumbled to 14th and the private sector stopped creating jobs, according to Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development data. This wasn’t caused by Sanders’ demonic duo of capitalism and free markets. It was caused by the very policies he idolizes.

“Sweden got rich first with free trade and an open economy, before we had the big government,” Swedish economist Johan Norberg explains ...

“In the 1950s, Sweden was already one of the world’s richest countries, and back then, taxes were lower in Sweden than in the United States.”

It was only after that, says Norberg, “did we start expanding the government dramatically.” ...

“It all ended in a terrible crisis.”

As we have noted before, Sweden has been repealing its welfare state post-crisis. Norberg says the country has become “successful again, but only after a new reform period, with more deregulation and free trade than in other countries.” Taxes have been cut, school vouchers allocated, and the pension system partially privatized as Sweden distances itself from its welfare-state past.

Norberg’s rebuke of Sanders — he never calls him by name, but it’s clear who he has in mind — is reminiscent of  Danish Prime Minister Lars Lokke Rasmussen, who said he had enough of Sanders slurring his country with the “socialist” label.

Sanders needs more lessons such as these, because he simply doesn’t know what he’s continuously spouting off about. Yet he’s been invited to the Vatican to talk about building a “moral economy,” as if he’s an authority on that subject. Simply put, there’s nothing moral about the economic system Sanders favors — it destroys jobs and snuffs out opportunities to rise higher. What was the Vatican thinking when it extended the offer?

The Vatican was being no less obtuse than Sanders’ American supporters, though, because what they are advocating are policies that in the end will create a terrible crisis in this country.

I have written before that if you care about the potentially poor of the future as well as the poor of today, you tend to favour economic policies that promote economic growth. As Tyler Cowen once opined, "Economic growth is the best anti-poverty programme there is."

Jesse James in Southwestern Ontario?

There is a long-standing story in Princeton, Ontario (yes, there is such a town), that after the failed Northfield Minnesota bank robbery, Jesse James found his way to Princeton, Ontario.

Jason Rip has written a play about what might have happened while he was there, "Mr. Richardson Was Jesse James."

The play will be performed as one of the productions during the 2016 London Fringe Festival.

At the Palace Theatre:
Wed June 1 6:30
Fri June 3 8:00
Sun June 5 1:30
Tues June 7 9:30
Thurs June 9 6:30
Sat June 11 2:00

It stars Rob Faust and Chris McAuley, along with Sarah Abbott and Matthew Stewart. Also I'm in it (a small role).

There are LOTS of plays to see during the Fringe Festival, but this one will be worth seeing.

Snow in April? Think Tropics!

I woke up to see snow on the ground this morning! Yea!!!!! More opportunities for snow-stomp art!

This one was far less complex than my previous work (Qubix) but somehow seemed appropriate:

Rum! Palms! A hammock!  No wonder it also looks like a stylized happy face!

Links to most of my previous snow-stomp art:

Qubix

Valentine, 2016

Paisley'd Circles

Happy New Year, 2016

The House of the Rising Sun

Easter Eggs

A weak pattern in the blowing snow.

The same pattern after some melting

New Year's Champagne

Tiptoe Through the Tulips

Happy Valentine's Day

Cabaret

A Christmas Tree (my first effort)

 

Titus Andronicus

My granddaughter and I are going to see Titus Andronicus tomorrow evening at The Arts Project in London. If I didn't know the producer/director, and if I didn't know and respect the actors playing the leading roles, and if I didn't enjoy supporting local theatre, I probably wouldn't go to see this play.

Murder, rape, dismemberment, mutilation, torture, fratricide, sacrificial death -- you name it. This play has all that gruesome stuff. I'm not keen on it. From Wikipaedia,

In his 1998 book, Shakespeare: The Invention of the Human, Harold Bloom attacked the play on numerous occasions, calling it "a howler", "a poetic atrocity", "an exploitative parody, with the inner purpose of destroying the ghost of Christopher Marlowe" and "a blowup, an explosion of rancid irony." Bloom summates his views by declaring "I can concede no intrinsic value to Titus Andronicus." Citing the 1955 Royal Shakespeare Company (RSC) production, directed by Peter Brook and starring Laurence Olivier, which is generally agreed to have provided the impetus for the 20th century revaluation of the play, Bloom said that the audience laughed several times in scenes which were supposed to be tragic, and he sees this as evidence for its failure as Tragedy. He particularly focuses his criticism on the line when Lavinia is told to carry Titus' severed hand in her mouth (3.1.281), arguing that no play which contains such a scene could possibly be serious. He thus concludes the best director to tackle the play would be Mel Brooks.

Say, now there's an idea! I'm going to laugh all the way through the play. Maybe I'll have a few glasses of wine before I go, too.

Poisonous Red Kidney Beans (I knew it!)

If not prepared properly, red kidney beans (and many other members of the lentil family) can cause food poisoning. Or at least might contain some toxins. [via Jack]

Red kidney beans form part of the pulses family (which also includes peas and lentils) and are available in both dried and tinned versions. They are often used in recipes such as chilli con carne.

These and other types of beans are considered healthy and nutritious but there is a downside to this. The downside is that they are also capable of causing food poisoning.

Causes of red kidney bean poisoning

The main cause is a toxin called ‘phytohaemagglutinin’ or kidney bean lectin. This is a sugar based protein (glycoprotein) which is found in many types of beans which includes cannellini beans and broad beans.

But some of the highest concentrations of this toxin are found in red kidney beans.

This toxin is killed if red kidney beans are cooked at a high enough temperature and for the right length of time. It is also important that red kidney beans are prepared correctly before use which means soaking them for at least 8 hours before hand. [emphasis added]

But if they are cooked for shorter periods of time or at lower temperatures such as those in slow cookers then this will be insufficient to kill this toxin.

Undercooked red kidney beans are more toxic than raw kidney beans.

Symptoms of red kidney bean poisoning

These symptoms appear around 2 to 3 hours after the kidney beans have been eaten. However, it only takes a few beans to cause the following symptoms:

• Nausea
• Vomiting
• Diarrhoea
• Abdominal pains

These symptoms appear soon after consumption but, they also disappear quickly as well.

Qubix Snow Art

I was so excited by the snow we had last night, I had trouble sleeping! I wanted to get out on the lawn this morning to try my latest snow-stomp art idea.

If I'd walk straighter, it would look better, but I'm pretty happy with it anyway.

Update:

By mid-afternoon, there had been some melting and the sun was shining. The contrast made the patterns much more striking:

 

Previous examples of my snow stomp art:

Valentine, 2016

Paisley'd Circles

Happy New Year, 2016

The House of the Rising Sun

Easter Eggs

A weak pattern in the blowing snow.

The same pattern after some melting

New Year's Champagne

Tiptoe Through the Tulips

Happy Valentine's Day

Cabaret

A Christmas Tree (my first effort)

Some Hilarious Q&As at Job Interviews

I have no idea how reliable this source is, but I love the examples posted there, most likely as humour submissions.

My own three stupid stories from interviews. They're nowhere near as funny as the ones in the link though.

1. I was in my last year in economics grad school. I figured I'd probably want an academic job, but decided to interview with General Electric when they came to campus. The interview was going well until the interviewer asked [this is all paraphrased; it happened quite a few years ago], "Would you be willing to trim your hair and shave your beard if you came to work for General Electric?" This is roughly what I looked like then:
   
   
   
   I replied, "No, I really don't think so. Also, your question actually surprises me for two reasons. First the GE Labs, historically were known for hiring people based on their abilities, not on their appearance or political views." I may have mentioned Steinmetz or someone at that point, to show I had done some homework before the interview. "It also surprises me," I added, "because of the slogan, 'At GE, progress is our most important product.'"
   
   The interviewer responded that "In the lab we can see your results; in economics and forecasting, we have to have faith in you, and your appearance will affect that." Needless to say, I didn't get an interview trip or anything further from General Electric.
2. More recently, a few years ago I was auditioning for a role in a classical play with a high-quality semi-pro theatre company. As usual, after such an audition, I was asked to sit and chat with the director and assistant director. At some point in the interview I told them, "Well, actually I'd like to play a ninja warrior...." They laughed, but it was stupid; no reason for them to take me seriously with a statement like that.
3. Even more stupid, after I nailed a monologue at an audition, the director for whom I was auditioning said he really liked the play I'd taken the audition from. I made the egregious error of telling him I hated it and thought it was stupid but that I quite liked the range I could show in the monologue.

Unfortunately the great, brief questions and answers at the Buzzfeed site are screen captures from tweets, so you'll have to follow the link to see them. Believe me, it's worth it. They're funny.

 

 

Gubmnt, Climate Change, and Cronyism

Former student, Gerry Nicholls, is very witty. I've enjoyed reading things he writes for years. Here's a brilliant example. The conclusion:

Sure, I get the concept in theory: government-subsidized companies will invent something amazingly innovative and environmentally friendly, such as machines that run on the warmth generated by Trudeau’s “Sunny ways”.

Yet, the sad truth of economics is that companies which rely on government handouts are usually only good at innovating one thing: new ways to get government hand outs. [emphasis added]

So you see, for all our sakes we better hope the climate change alarmists are wrong or else we’ve had it.

It’s not that I’m not a “climate change denier” so much as I’m a “government competence denier.”

Too bad Gerry hasn't learned that the correct spelling is "gubmnt".