EclectEcon

The Ideological Turing Test and Acting

I mentioned earlier that I will be playing Noam Chomsky in a play at the 2017 London Fringe. The play is called "Noam Chomsky vs. Rush Limbaugh", and is a political comedy loosely based on Chomsky and Limbaugh.

Long-time readers of EclectEcon know full well that I am no fan of Chomsky. [For example, see this and this]. I know he is a very smart person. I know I would lose any debate to him. But generally I perceive him as a member of the group I have characterized as "Elitist Interventionists" who probably have little-to-no understanding of F.A. Hayek's adage, 

" The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to [people] how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."

And so playing Chomsky in this upcoming play will be a fun, interesting challenge.

To play the role, I am trying to be "authentic", as many actors and critics might describe the process.

To say the lines is one thing. But that is superficial, pretending, and generally not good acting. It leads to acceptable performances, but doing the role properly generally requires actually understanding and projecting an understanding of the character. As I began studying for the role (and working with the playwright, Paul Merrifield, and the director, Robert Vaughn to edit the script), I realized that I needed to engage in what Bryan Caplan calls "The Ideological Turing Test" [also, see this].

The role of Chomsky was not insurmountable for me. I was once (in my early 20s, of course) a socialist wannabe, a pretentious elitist interventionist. Furthermore, I have many friends who think Chomsky is just wonderful, thus making my familiarity with Chomsky much easier. I no longer accept those views myself, but once had them and read/hear them often.

Peak Oil? Meet Peak Oil Demand.

Nearly 12 years ago, I was writing on the blog to pooh-pooh the notion of peak oil (see below). Now it looks as if large numbers of forecasters are in fact not worried about peak oil (the notion that we will run out of oil) but instead are writing about peak oil demand. [via JR, my favourite drug dealer] The first two paragraphs:

The world’s largest oil companies are girding for the biggest shift in energy consumption since the Industrial Revolution: After decades of growth, global demand for oil is poised to peak and fall in the coming years.

New technologies that improve fuel efficiency are starting to push down the amount of gasoline and diesel that’s needed for transportation, and a consensus is growing that fuel demand for passenger cars could fall as carbon rules go into effect, electric vehicles gain traction and the internal combustion engine gets re-engineered to be dramatically more efficient. Western countries’ growth used to move in lockstep with their energy consumption, but that phenomenon is starting to decouple in advanced economies.

Yup. And as economies continue to develop more efficient alternatives to using oil, the price of oil will drop, thus inducing more continued use of oil than many of these forecasters are suggesting. People respond to rising prices by increasing the quantity supplied (as we have seen over the past decade with fracking, etc.) and by decreasing the quantity demanded (more fuel efficient motors, uses of alternative energy).

But the lower prices will ameliorate the impact of reduced demand and increased supply. As the prices fall (think $20/bbl or so in 2017 dollars), people will have less incentive to shift away from using oil.

Yes, I think we will reach a peak oil demand point. I tend to side with those who think it will be later rather than sooner, though.

-- - - - - - -

My blog post from August, 2005:

The Hubbert Peak, Oil Prices, and Speculation

 

Over the past weekend, MA and I had several e-mail exchanges about Twilight in the Desert, about which I wrote this brief item yesterday. He pointed out some similarities between Simmons' views and those of M. King Hubbert, who used mathematical models to predict that for a specific oil field, oil production peaks and then drops off suddenly. From Wikipedia:

The Hubbert peak theory, also known as peak oil, is an influential theory concerning the long-term rate of conventional oil (and other fossil fuel) extraction and depletion. It predicts that future world oil production will reach a peak and then rapidly decline. The actual peak year will only be known after it has passed. Based on available production data, proponents have predicted the peak year to be 1989, 1995, 1995-2000, or, according to the Association for the Study of Peak Oil and Gas, 2007 for oil and somewhat later for natural gas. This may lead to major economic consequences for the world since modern civilization is dependent on cheap and abundant fossil fuels, especially for transportation, food production, chemical industrial processes, water treatment, home heating and power generation. The Hubbert peak theory is named for geophysicist M. King Hubbert, who correctly predicted the peak of U.S. oil production fifteen years in advance. While controversial, the theory increasingly influences policy makers within government and the oil industry. The current debate is rarely about whether there will be a peak, but rather when it will occur and the severity of the post-peak effects. Even the most generous mainstream reports estimate petroleum reserves lasting no more than 100 years.

My reaction: Show me some economics. Show me the effects of expectations on prices.

First, it is incorrect to generalize what might be a geological condition in one field to the world economy. As (or if ) world oil becomes more scarce, prices will rise and extraction rates will decline. Also, higher prices induce more exploration. As Phil Miller says, "We will never run out of oil."

Second, suppose Hubbert is correct. Sort of. Then speculators ought to be driving up the price of oil now by slowing the extraction rate, if not in Saudi Arabia then elsewhere. And keep in mind that even thought the U.S. imports only a small percentage of its oil from Saudi Arabia, if their oil stopped flowing into the world market, that would have a big impact on the world markets.

There was a very informative discussion of these topics by Hamilton and Kaufman recently here. Hamilton points out that the December 2011 future price of oil isn't much different from the current spot price. Apparently, speculators disagree with those who are predicting doom and gloom. If you really think the Hubbert peak is drawing nigh, this is a good time to buy lots of long-term oil futures.

Where is Julian Simon when we need him?

People Respond to Incentives (part 17.001zillion)

The "martyr fund" creates incentives for people to become martyrs in Palestine. One way to become a martyr? become a terrorist.Yes, the martyr fund induces people to become terrorists.

From The Hill: [via Jack]

... That night, while Hallel slept, a young Palestinian named Mohammad Tra'ayra ... managed to climb over the fence that encircled Kiryat Arba. Tra’ayra was armed with a knife. He somehow made his way undetected to Hallel’s bedroom, and there he stabbed the sleeping girl numerous times.

The ensuing commotion aroused the settlement’s guards, and they rushed to Hallel’s bedroom and confronted Tra’ayra. He was shot dead. Hallel died of her wounds.

None of the foregoing facts are in dispute. Nor is there any dispute that the so-called Palestinian Martyr’s Fund pays Tra’ayra’s family $350 each month, because he is considered to be a “martyr” by the Palestinians.

...

On the day she learned of her son’s death, Tra'ayra’s mother called him a “hero” and a “martyr” because he had been killed after he fatally stabbed a sleeping 13-year-old girl. 

I can say with confidence that Hallel Yaffa Ariel’s mother was not similarly exultant when she learned of the death of her daughter.

People who are seriously interested in advancing peace between Israelis and Palestinians ought to think carefully about the story of Hallel Yaffa Ariel and Tra’ayra, and about what it implies.

Related articles

Nakba for Whom? and When?

Israel, Gaza 1, Gaza 2, and Hamas

Politicians Hate You

Rating Afternoon Tea

I recently came across an article in The Telegraph that purports to list (the?) top 30 places for afternoon tea in England. It was admittedly not systematic, based on the opinions of "experts" at The Telegraph; at the same time, my experiences with many places were similar but with some major differences.

The article ranked the following London places at the top of the list:

1. The Ritz
2. Fortnum and Mason
3. Claridges
4. Browns
5. Hotel Cafe Royal
6. Dean Street Townhouse
7. The Sanderson
8. The Wolseley
9. Orange Pekoe
10. Dandelyan
11. Little Nan's

At 25th is Betty's Cafe in Yorkshire, which I mention only because a friend has promised to take me there, should I ever be able to return to Yorkshire. I would also do my best to visit Fortnum & Mason in addition to several other places on the list.

I have been to only three of the places listed in The Telegraph article, and they are three of the top four: The Ritz, Claridges, and Browns. I am both surprised and very disappointed that neither The Lanesborough nor The Dorchester is included in this list. The Lanesborough was in the top category of my own experiences, and The Dorchester was in the same group as Claridges, Browns, and The Ritz. For some reason, The Lanesborough, after topping the charts a few years ago, seems to have dropped off most of the top-ten lists.

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My own reviews and ratings from experiences during the past decade:

These three were superb. Highly recommended:

• The Four Seasons, London, England
• The St. Regis Hotel, Houston, Texas
• The Lanesborough, London, England
  

Those in this large middle group ranged from very good to just okay. I would consider returning to them, but those in the upper portion of the list were significantly better than those in the lower portion of this section:

• Claridge's, London, England
• The Dorchester, London, England
• The Ritz, London, England
• Brown's, London, England

           ----------

• Scolfe's Tea Room, Boreham Street, England (superb, but not really afternoon tea)
• The Pump Room, Bath, England (also superb, but not really afternoon tea)
•  The Windsor Arms, Toronto, Canada
• The Fairmont Pacific Rim, Vancouver, British Columbia
• Spartahouse Tea Room
• The Saskatchewan Hotel, Regina, Saskatchewan
• The Boathouse, Guelph, Canada
• The Grand Hotel, Eastbourne, England 
• Langdon Hall, Cambridge, Canada

These next two were unacceptable:

• The Royal Crescent Hotel, Bath, England
• The Queen's Hotel, Portsmouth, England

  * * * * 

The chronology of when I visited each place probably affected my ratings, so here is a chronological list:

1. The Four Seasons, London, England
2. The Royal Crescent Hotel, Bath, England
3. The Pump Room, Bath, England (superb, but not really afternoon tea)
4. Claridge's, London, England
5. The Boathouse, Guelph, Canada
6. The St. Regis Hotel, Houston, Texas
7. The Queen's Hotel, Portsmouth, England
8. The Dorchester, London, England
9. Brown's, London, England
10. Langdon Hall, Cambridge, Canada
11. The Windsor Arms, Toronto, Canada
12. The Ritz, London, England
13. Scolfe's Tea Room, Boreham Street, England (again, not really afternoon tea)
14. The Lanesborough, London, England
15. The Grand Hotel, Eastbourne, England
16. The Saskatchewan Hotel, Regina, Saskatchewan
17. The Fairmont Pacific Rim, Vancouver, British Columbia
18. Sparta House Tea Room, Sparta, Ontario

For various meanings of the different forms and types of tea (e.g. afternoon, high, meat), see this or this.

Related articles

Afternoon Tea at the Sparta House Tea Room

London's 10 best afternoon teas

Hair, Theatre, and Transitions

[If you are seeing this on FB, click through to see the full set of photos]

About a month ago, I had let my hair and beard grow a bit to appear as Old Gobbo in a modern adaptation The Merchant of Venice:

Knowing that my next role would be as Bart Chumley, a more-than-slightly unsophisticated wild-west rancher, I asked the director of the mystery dinner theatre show [Murder for Hire] if she would like me to let my hair and beard continue to grow. She liked the idea. Here is what I looked like last Saturday morning:

It then occurred to me that since the Chumley family would all be dressed in black, it might be a good idea if, in addition, my hair and beard were black. She immediately agreed. So here is what I looked like, a tube of mascara later:

And at the performance venue [The Dark Horse Winery, Grand Bend, Ontario]:

Fortunately, mascara washes out quickly and easily. I washed it all out before going to bed Saturday night:

My next role, for the 2017 London Fringe Festival, June 1-10, will be as Noam Chomsky in the comedy, Noam Chomsky vs. Rush Limbaugh. I realize Chomsky has much more hair than I do and no beard, and so I'll continue to let my hair grow for the role. But I'm not willing to shave my beard for this role other than to trim it quite short. This photo, taken Sunday morning, shows roughly what I'll look like.

And if anyone would like my beard, I've saved it:

Robert Frost on the Nanny State

A stanza from "A Roadside Stand", appearing first in The Atlantic Monthly in 1936, Farmers are to be moved:

It is in the news that all these pitiful kin
Are to be bought out and mercifully gathered in
To live in villages, next to the theatre and the store, 
Where they won’t have to think for themselves anymore, 
While greedy good-doers, beneficent beasts of prey, 
Swarm over their lives enforcing benefits
That are calculated to soothe them out of their wits, 
And by teaching them how to sleep they sleep all day, 
Destroy their sleeping at night the ancient way.

 

via John H.

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Politicians Hate You

The Minimum Wage and Unemployment among Minority Teens

Two Good Pieces on the Minimum Wage

See This Play! "The Big Lad"