EclectEcon: March 2020

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March 2020

March 30, 2020

How Serious Is This? Really.... Some Perspective, perhaps

Amid forecasts of anywhere from 5000 to 5 million deaths from Covid-19, how serious is the pandemic, really?

I admit it, I'm a little scared. I'm old, my wife is older and has other conditions that put her even more at risk, and I have several friends who are older and who also have many conditions that put them at risk. Most of us figure that if we get it, we'll likely die, be left to die, or be triaged into death. One of my friends says he's unlikely to still be alive next year, even though the odds of his actually getting the virus are low.

Here's a perspective that might help address the fear and concerns, based on what I consider the worst case for which we might even have semi-reliable data --- Italy [I don't know what to believe about China's cases and data].

From Worldometer as of 11am today, data for Italy:

CLOSED CASES

23,809

Cases which had an outcome:

13,030 (55%)

Recovered / Discharged

10,779 (45%)

Deaths

Wow! 45% of all closed cases (recovered/discharged or died) were deaths! That doesn't seem very reassuring.

But look at the numbers per million in Italy, Spain, and other countries near the top of the list ....

Country, Other	Total Cases	New Cases	Total Deaths	New Deaths	Total Recovered	Tot Cases/ 1M pop	Deaths/ 1M pop
Spain	85,195	+5,085	7,340	+537	16,780	1,822	157
Switzerland	15,526	+697	333	+33	1,823	1,794	38
Italy	97,689		10,779		13,030	1,616	178
Austria	9,454	+666	108	+22	636	1,050	12
Belgium	11,899	+1,063	513	+82	1,527	1,027	44
Norway	4,436	+152	31	+5	12	818	6
Germany	63,929	+1,494	560	+19	9,211	763	7
Netherlands	11,750	+884	864	+93	250	686	50
Portugal	6,408	+446	140	+21	43	628	14

Even Spain, which has the highest number of cases per capita of these relatively heavily infected countries, EVEN SPAIN has had only 0.18% of their population infected.... so far. What if the percentage infected where I live ends up even quadruple those numbers, what are the chances my wife, my friends, or I will get it and die? Probably not very high, especially since we are all pretty much self-isolating at the moment.

Still... suppose there's only a 0.5% chance of my contracting CV19. If I do get it, the odds are good that my wife and I won't survive it. And that is why we're being so friggn careful.

As I said in a previous posting,

This isn't a video game. We can't press the reset button if we don't like it.

Posted by EclectEcon on March 30, 2020 at 02:23 PM in Aging, Current Affairs, Gubmnt, Health and Medicine | Permalink | Comments (0)

When Will All of This End?

A wild guess for Ontario, though it seems roughly correct for other jurisdictions:
Restaurants and pubs will be allowed to open just before the May 2-4 weekend* but camping in provincial parks won't open until just before or just after July 1. 
Why? The caseloads in countries that are well-along seem to be declining slightly and can likely be expected to decline more over time. Also, physical distancing seems to be slowing the spread.
We won't be over the pandemic by then, but the politicos will say things like, 
"Don't go out if you even think you might have symptoms." 

"Be careful, wash your hands and wipe down surfaces frequently." 
"But we have to be mindful of all the poor businesses and their employees, too." 
"Businesses are strongly encouraged to limit the number of people in their pubs and restaurants" (as if we won't do that ourselves anyway).
The traditional Victoria Day fireworks will be cancelled. Large, dense gatherings will still be banned until just before July 1, when the fireworks will proceed, but with dire cautions about physical distancing. 
* The May 2-4 weekend was originally a national holiday to celebrate the birthday of Queen Victoria. When I moved to Canada, it was called "Victoria Day" (who knows, maybe it still is, officially). But sometime after I moved here, it was moved to the somethingth Monday of May. People started calling it the May 2-4 Weekend because it occurs around May 24th and because some people consume lots of beer from cases, affectionately known as 2-4s here. 

Posted by EclectEcon on March 30, 2020 at 11:20 AM in Current Affairs, Food and Drink, Gubmnt, Health and Medicine | Permalink | Comments (1)

March 29, 2020

Risk, Probabilities, Losses, and Uncertainty -- CoVid-19

Yesterday I had an exchange with a young man on Facebook who said, in part,

I assure I will not catch it and I will not fall so easily , my day consists of working my manager position and also shopping for people who are to afraid of going out my job status is HERO now and I cannot change that and I will not submit to societies will of masking myself or hiding inside a cave , we as humans will thrive and no flu or disease can bring us down we are STRONGER THAN THAT

He may very well be right. Judging from these data, not many people get CV19 (or not many get it seriously enough to be counted in the data). Even in the worst imaginable situations (so far!), he probably has only a twenty percent chance of getting the virus. And even if he does, he is young and healthy and has probably has no more than a five percent chance of dying from it.

So he will likely not get the virus, and even if he does get it, he will likely survive and be healthy. So for himself he's not worried, and in fact he'll be able to crow to me and others, "See. I'm strong. I told you so."

But what if he does get it? What are the odds he'll transmit it? I don't know. Maybe 50% (higher if he refuses to wear a mask)? And what are the odds he'll transmit it to someone in the at-risk category. Maybe only 5%? And what are the odds that if he gets it, he'd take up a spot in hospital that would lead to the death of someone else (generally older or already ill with other conditions, i.e. someone about whom the death panel would say, "they're going to die anyway, so give the ventilator to this young man instead.")

Put all together, the odds that he will get the virus with the consequence that someone else will suffer seriously or die are very low. Let me add that he is likely judgement proof (legally), depending on how much resale value his personal possessions would have. If I got sick from him, I couldn't sue him for his negligence because there's not much to get when suing him.

My concern is that because we essentially have a taxpayer-paid-for medical system, and because he has little to lose, he will take risks for which he won't have to bear all the costs or consequences. This is a classic example of moral hazard. He gets the benefits of taking the risks and others bear the costs if he gets sick.

But CV19 isn't a video game in which imaginary characters get seriously ill, are triaged into death, or die. It's real. And if he does get sick, there's no reset button for the rest of us to push.

Posted by EclectEcon on March 29, 2020 at 11:31 AM in Aging, Current Affairs, Economics and Law, Health and Medicine | Permalink | Comments (0)

March 28, 2020

Make a Mask from a T-shirt in Fifteen Minutes

I know I'm not going out very often where there will be other people, and I know that finding any factory-produced mask will be difficult, if not impossible (I have friends who work in hospitals, and they can't/shouldn't get them for home use now), and so I was considering making a mask from a virus-shield 3M furnace filter (of which we happen to have a spare). Unfortunately, the YouTube videos that show how to do that, all involve sewing something... which ain't gonna happen.

Then my friend, Ted Frank, posted a video on how to make a mask from a T-shirt.

I did it, and it takes less than 15 minutes. Here are the steps and the photos.

First, find a T-shirt you don't want to keep as a T-shirt. Unfortunately, I had given away most of my less interesting T-shirts, and I hope the students who gave me this one won't be upset that I've used it to make a mask. Think of the trade off: T-shirt sits unworn in a drawer or is used to maybe somewhat reduce the probability of spreading a contagious disease to or from me. (I know, it ain't an N95 or whatever, but at least it'll fit tight).

The chalk in the next photo is important. It not only half-sorta helped me cut straight, but drawing the cut lines before cutting helped me avoid some serious mistakes.

Here is the shirt with my chalk lines. Notice that I drew two bottom lines. I drew the higher one of the two because I didn't really want the word "Assume" to be on the mask but then I realized the underarms of the sleeves will help hold the pieces in the front and back together. Also I wanted a longer (top-to-bottom) mask.

And if I were making another one, I'd probably leave some of the tops of the arms as well.

Those next chalk lines show where to cut so there will be two sets of ties on each side of the mask.

Now it's time to cut (you can probably do all this in less time than it takes to read what I did).

And here is the final result. Just tie it on and adjust it.

Before I go out, I'll probably put some tissue between the front and back. And to sterilize it after I've been out, I'll leave it in the sun on the balcony.

Posted by EclectEcon on March 28, 2020 at 06:20 AM in Current Affairs, Eclectic Miscellany, Economics, Health and Medicine | Permalink | Comments (0)

March 23, 2020

Fight CV19 and STAY HOME

We had a bit of wet snow overnight, and since most of us are trying to avoid catching or spreading Covid-19, we're staying home as much as possible and isolating as much as possible when we're out.