Yesterday I had an exchange with a young man on Facebook who said, in part,
I assure I will not catch it and I will not fall so easily , my day consists of working my manager position and also shopping for people who are to afraid of going out my job status is HERO now and I cannot change that and I will not submit to societies will of masking myself or hiding inside a cave , we as humans will thrive and no flu or disease can bring us down we are STRONGER THAN THAT
He may very well be right. Judging from these data, not many people get CV19 (or not many get it seriously enough to be counted in the data). Even in the worst imaginable situations (so far!), he probably has only a twenty percent chance of getting the virus. And even if he does, he is young and healthy and has probably has no more than a five percent chance of dying from it.
So he will likely not get the virus, and even if he does get it, he will likely survive and be healthy. So for himself he's not worried, and in fact he'll be able to crow to me and others, "See. I'm strong. I told you so."
But what if he does get it? What are the odds he'll transmit it? I don't know. Maybe 50% (higher if he refuses to wear a mask)? And what are the odds he'll transmit it to someone in the at-risk category. Maybe only 5%? And what are the odds that if he gets it, he'd take up a spot in hospital that would lead to the death of someone else (generally older or already ill with other conditions, i.e. someone about whom the death panel would say, "they're going to die anyway, so give the ventilator to this young man instead.")
Put all together, the odds that he will get the virus with the consequence that someone else will suffer seriously or die are very low. Let me add that he is likely judgement proof (legally), depending on how much resale value his personal possessions would have. If I got sick from him, I couldn't sue him for his negligence because there's not much to get when suing him.
My concern is that because we essentially have a taxpayer-paid-for medical system, and because he has little to lose, he will take risks for which he won't have to bear all the costs or consequences. This is a classic example of moral hazard. He gets the benefits of taking the risks and others bear the costs if he gets sick.
But CV19 isn't a video game in which imaginary characters get seriously ill, are triaged into death, or die. It's real. And if he does get sick, there's no reset button for the rest of us to push.